Translated material
Republicans in the United States won an absolute victory
Intermediate elections in the United States turned into a complete victory of the Republican Party. The number of republican governors increased. The Great Old Party strengthened its majority in the House of Congress. But the main thing - for the first time since 2006, the Republicans received the majority in the Senate. For the next two years, this turns President Barack Obama into a classic “lame duck”, the head of state, all the initiatives of which are reliably blocked by the opposition.
Sitazia for the " Daily Journal " comments on the director of the Institute of Strategic Objects, Professor MGIMO Sergey Oznobischev :
Each time we are waiting for the elections of the American president or congressmen with some holy trepidation, as if the sky will be opened now. But in fact, although recently the policy has become very personal, it does not depend on individual people. Obama was the most peaceful president “for the entire period of observation,” as meteorologists say. This is the president of not input for the troops, but the withdrawal, reduction of the US participation in conflicts, and although he received the Nobel Prize of the world, he really “worked out”, especially compared to other American presidents. But we did not take this opportunity in any way.
In general, the expectation that with the advent of new politicians to power, something good will happen to us, has been stretching since Soviet times. Long before the elections, we cease to seriously work with the state, claiming that this is pointless, since the power will be replaced soon. As a result, the period of active work is very short and quickly ends with disappointment. Politics generally became very emotional, became less objective and balanced. We are not satisfied with the leaders, we are not satisfied with parties, although we must work with other countries, regardless of who leads them and what the composition of the congress, is glad, parliament or anything else.
At the same time, in general, there is confidence confirmed by perennial observations that the Republicans are able to achieve more, despite their hard rhetoric. And now in our elite this confidence is already felt: Republicans will come and everything will work out. At first, of course, there will be a period of criticism, Russia, from the point of view of America, has something to condemn for. We completely disagree in the approaches to resolving conflict situations, of the interpretation of international law, of which we accuse each other of violation, and it is very difficult to find points of contact. Although we must pay attention to the fact that at the very beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, even before Crimea became ours, the president said that we are not stopping the dialogue and are tuned to continuing joint work in the field of security. And similar signals come from the West: they are still ready to discuss archiving with us.
The last time on Valdai, the president even uttered the words “nuclear disarmament”, which our leaders have not talked about since Soviet times. According to him, we are not only ready, but also “insisted” on nuclear disarmament, although now it is rather an interesting form, devoid of any content. But the solution of such issues is “dancing together”, and you can make them only together with Washington and with anyone else. No matter how we want to conduct a dialogue with someone else, we cannot do without Americans, like them without us.
So at first it is worth expecting a very sharp rhetoric, but later, approaching the issue soberly, we will be able to go out to a reduction in weapons, including nuclear ones. In addition, it will be possible to start a dialogue about weapons in Europe, where the first violin is also played by the United States, or to raise a question about the missile defense. The danger lies in the fact that the strict rhetoric preceding this by both ours and the American military is perceived unambiguously as a signal, that we need to quickly grab as much means as they give, and lay as much as possible in expensive weapons systems. We are doing it now. The Americans are still sluggishly, but this can change with the Republicans.
So, speaking of the upcoming dialogue, or even preparing it in the form of consultations, which will take months and years, we will simultaneously spend money on a “new arms race”, no matter how it is called. It will take place, first of all, in the field of the quality of weapons, and here we must clearly realize that, regardless of how many funds we swell, we will not be able to catch up with the Americans. We can catch up and overtake them only by quantity, although we are unlikely to do this by virtue of the existence of the so -called Prague START Treaty, where we need to increase the ceilings.
So the main risk is the tightening of preparation for the new dialogue, in the process of which we will modernize weapons in all possible directions. That in the current situation of the Russian economy will become destructive for us. It is with this that my fears are connected when looking at the elections to the American Congress and on the eve of the new president’s elections in the United States.