Russian language in 50 years

Speaking about the future of the language, you can keep in mind two fundamentally different views. One, sociolinguistic, is a kind of Macrovzglyad. Sociolinguists look at the language as a whole and explore, among other things, how it interacts with other languages. Languages ​​compete with each other, replace each other, and it is possible to predict the development of events, that is, the degree of danger hanging over the language. The second glance is turned inside, to the language system, that is, to the device of the tongue. The linguist is interested in changes in vocabulary, grammar, syntax, including very small things: stress in a particular word, verbal and prepositional management, etc. This is a kind of microvs glaz.

Under Makrov, it turns out that it is quite well -being into Russian. It is steadily included in the ten most common languages ​​of the world, no matter how you consider them: as a native or in the general number of speakers (that is, as a second, third, etc. Language). It has the media and Wikipedia, education and upbringing (kindergartens, schools, universities), literature and signs.

Nevertheless, horror stories about the fate of the Russian language roam in society. There are two main horror stories. The first is that the English language, which has become the world, will replace everyone else after a while. Indeed, in many countries, for example, in Sweden, Denmark and some other European countries, many residents are almost the majority - bilinguals.

Here we must make a reservation that there are two displacement scenarios. In the first case, native speakers cease to speak their native language and completely switch to English. This is not observed in these countries. English dominates only in certain areas: in science, business ... In Russia, by the way, this is also found, but on a much smaller scale: partly in science, and in business, perhaps only in international companies.

A complete transition to English is still impossible for Russia. And here I will repeat the phrase that I have already spoke many times. The Russian language has two supports: great Russian literature and great Russian laziness, which prevents a huge number of native speakers from learning a foreign language, which is easy to confirm in numbers. So, according to the 2010 population census, almost 100% of the Russian population owned the Russian language (now, apparently, less), and about 5.5% (now, apparently, more).

The second displacement scenario consists in linguistic diffusion, or more simply, in a huge number of borrowing from the English language. This really happens in the Russian language, but one cannot but admit that the Russian language is remarkably coping with these borrowings, embedding them into its system, for example, generating a large number of related words (likes, like, like, like it, wean, cut, howling, hip, hypozhor, an antihaip, etc.). The 1990s, the period of the most intensive borrowing of English vocabulary, showed that the Russian language, even significantly changing, remains Russian.

The second horror story is even more fantastic. In it, the Russian language is also supplanted by the world language, but only the Chinese is hypothetically considered as the world, which in this role replaces English.

This horror story is for some reason worse than the first. Apparently, Chinese civilization is generally perceived as very distant, that is, completely alien (unlike, say, from the European one), and the transition to the Chinese language, thus, symbolizes the capture of us with someone else's culture and, accordingly, civilization.

The prediction itself is based on the fact that there are a lot of Chinese. In the list of the most common languages ​​(by the number of speaking as a native), Chinese with a huge margin takes first place. In addition, China is very successful in economically, however, the “Chinese threat” existed in the national mind long before the Chinese economic miracle.

However, you will have to upset the horror lovers. This scenario is extremely unlikely, and if you discard the scientific ceremonies, it is simply impossible. And this despite the fact that the Chinese state is very competently promoting the Chinese language, more precisely, one of its options is Putunhua, using Confucius Institutes as an instrument.

What prevents the Chinese language from displacing other languages ​​or at least become the main world language even taking into account economic and political successes? First of all, his dissimilarity in English and other European languages. This is especially true for hieroglyphic writing and phonetics, including tones, which Europeans are difficult to cope with. It is interesting that in the list of the most common languages ​​of the world (but already by the number of speakers) the first place of the Chinese language is no longer indisputable: it practically catch up with English. In other words, the Chinese language as a foreign language does not teach many people. And to imagine that all Russian people will learn Chinese in 50 years and forget Russian, is simply impossible.

Both horror stories are also popular due to the fact that they are a continuation of the current genre - crying in the Russian language and even bringing it to a logical end. But no, the Russian language will not go anywhere, if, of course, not to take into account the eschatological scenarios about the death of mankind or individual peoples (from global warming, viruses or other misfortunes).

The impossibility of serious linguistic predictions for 50 years in advance is determined by the fact that the fate of the language is associated with many extra -linguistic factors: politics, economics, culture and, which is often underestimated, technical and scientific progress.

I will name only two areas of research that rapidly bring reality closer to us, which seemed fantastic 10 years ago. These are computer linguistics and neurolinguistics.

In today's computer linguistics, great progress in the field of automatic translation has been achieved. But even at the beginning of our century, it seemed that its scope was very limited. The invention of the ideal written and voice translation will absolutely change the language landscape. Why learn English, not to mention some other, if you can speak your own, and the interlocutor will hear your words on his dear. All the existing hierarchy of languages ​​will collapse, and the era of prosperity of all languages, which by that time will still remain, will come.

In neurolinguistics, the activity of individual areas of the brain is studied in the process of perception and generation of speech, which ultimately can lead to the creation of language cerebral cards and, accordingly, gadgets for communication without or outside of speech. Roughly speaking, we will read each other's thoughts, although it would be more correct to talk not about thoughts, but about internal speech. What will happen to languages ​​in this case is even hard to imagine. It remains to be hoped that this process will be delayed until the end of the century.

So, the Russian language will survive us. And this is good news. But he, of course, will change. However, to the question "how?" There is no good answer again. In other words, the microvs glance into the future is not just complicated, but very voluminous, because then I would have to disassemble everything: from shifting stress in the verb to call to the multi -digit of the preposition on (on the table, on treason, on the area, on a tie, etc.) and the fate of borrowings mentioned above.

However, I will answer one actual question. After 50 years, we will still bow numerals (albeit at least only in the mind), and still with errors. Some trends in the language are also eternal.

See you in 2070!

Maxim Krongauz,
Linguist, Professor NIU HSE and RSUSU