The escalation of threats

Of course, the parties pump tension, demonstrating the seriousness of their threats. But there will be no war, of course. She is not beneficial to anyone, she will create only problems that neither Moscow nor Tbilisi know how to resolve.

About this, most of the Russian expert and journalistic community (including the author of these lines) described the prospects of the Georgian-Russian confrontation three weeks ago. And everyone was mistaken. The escalation of mutual threats ended in war.

Something similar is happening now that experts on both sides of the Atlantic carefully convince each other that the new Cold War is impossible. Indeed, Washington had in the first place, and his Western European allies, more than sufficiently existing security problems - Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan - to afford to have Russia as a new enemy. It seems that it was from this that they came in the Kremlin for the past two years, allowing themselves to speak all kinds of nasty things to the West.

Let Putin say everything that he pleases him - after all, he desperately needs to convince Russian citizens that the country is “reborn”, reassured himself for the time being in Washington and Brussels. Indeed, from these formidable statements, nothing follows - in eight years, Moscow has not taken any practical steps that could be considered as a military threat to the West. In addition, Putin very tightly controlled the level of defense costs. And expenses on service, which are twenty times smaller than American ones, in principle, exclude the possibility of a new arms race. In order for it to become a reality, Medvedev and Putin should go to the mobilization model, “close” the market and begin to spend all the oil -eater on military purposes. Which will inevitably affect the popularity of the current leaders of the country.

In addition, Russia and the West desperately need each other. Moscow, of course, can use its position of energy supplier for pressure on some countries. However, in general, the seller is even more dependent on the buyer than the other way around. Especially when you consider that Russia has no other such a market as Western European. Moreover, Washington has experience in reducing oil and gas prices due to political pressure. At the same time, the United States and Western Europe is necessary, if not assistance, then at least the neutrality of Moscow in order to reassure the large Middle East, to ensure through the territory of Russia the transit of cargo to ensure the NATO group in Afghanistan, to end the nuclear program of Iran and North Korea.

In a word, as Dmitry Rogozin’s permanent representative in NATO repeated in recent weeks, there is no getting away from the submarine. Based on this simple consideration, the West and Russia inflate bets. What to be afraid if nothing happens in principle. The State Duma and the Federation Council unanimously accept the appeal to President Medvedev to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Thus, the head of state was extremely narrowed, if there was even some field for a foreign policy maneuver. And this despite the fact that even the most benevolent to Medvedev Western leaders like angels Merkel immediately demanded that he ignore the demand of both chambers of the Federal Assembly.

NATO Secretary General JAP de Hop Scheffer said last week that meetings of the Russia-NATO Council will not be resolved until the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia. Our adequate answer was not long in coming. Meeting with Brussels, Dmitry Rogozin, Medvedev said that NATO was much more interested in cooperation with Russia than Moscow - in cooperation with Brussels. And he threatened to stop this cooperation at all.

Both sides make more and more tough statements, hoping that there is enough strength to stop. At the same time, the calculation for the fact that the nerves will pass on the other side and it will backward. After all, no one wants a new cold war. So it is so, only here the escalation of threats in itself can become the most important factor in politics. So strong that, contrary to all the rational calculations, politicians will not be able to stop her, even when they want. The consequences for the West will be bad. For Russia - catastrophic.