There is nowhere to do

Experts converge in one: relations between Russia and the United States have worsened so much that due to the victory of the Republicans, one can no longer worry

In the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis, when the relations of Russia and the United States are more difficult than ever, we watched the struggle of the Democrats and Republicans in the American Congress. Now Russian deputies and officials are in alarm: the victorious Republicans consider it traditionally aggressive in foreign policy - to recall at least Reagan, who called the USSR the “Empire of Evil”. Experts reassure: everything is so bad that it will no longer be worse. True, better - even more so.

On Tuesday (on the night of Moscow time), intermediate elections to Congress were held in the United States: the Americans chose all members of the House of Representatives and a third of the senators. The final results of the elections have not yet been announced, but it is already obvious: now the Republicans for the first time in the last 8 years in both wards of parliament for the first time in the last 8 years. Until now, they had an advantage in the lower house of representatives, but in the Senate the advantage (55 out of 100 seats) was among the democrats.

The defeat of the Democratic Party, which Barack Obama represents, analysts predicted in advance, especially since the opposition party traditionally wins the Senate elections that take place during the second term of the current president. But for Obama, whose ratings are inexorably falling, this is a serious loss: now, experts predict, it will be even more difficult for him to carry out their bills, including the reform of medical and social insurance, which the Republicans from the very beginning took on bayonets.

Russian politicians perceived the victory of the Republicans with cautiously and condensate for paints - now the shaky relations with the United States will become even more shaky. The head of the Duma Committee on International Affairs, Alexei Pushkov, has already said in an interview with ITAR-TASS that it was a “unfavorable vector” for Russia, and from the Republicans he heard “hysterical frenzy” notes.

News discussed with experts how the victory of the Republicans will affect Russian-American relations.

Yuri Roguev, Director of the US Study Fund. Franklin Roosevelt at Moscow State University, candidate of historical sciences:

The victory of the Republicans will not change the situation much. The obvious forecasts that were understood in the White House were fulfilled. Obama had experienced difficulties in working with Congress before these elections: many of his bills and reforms were torpedoed by one of the chambers. He will have several serious battles with Congress: on budget issues, taxes, and medical insurance. And he is not in the best situation.

At the same time, Congress is actually not engaged in foreign policy - this is rather the prerogative of the State Department, the White House and the President of the United States. In addition, foreign policy at all times is more than two -party than one -party - that is, it is less than the internal one depends on the alignment of forces in the congress.

The relations of the United States and Russia have now reached the lower point - there is nowhere to go further. And the leaders of both countries are afraid to take steps who can worsen them.

Congress will be more likely in terms of public opinion. The Republican Party has many militant figures who will call for a more stringent policy against Russia.

Our economic relations are now at a low level - they must be developed. The issues of strategic cooperation were seriously affected by the placement of the pro-and both parties are looking for opportunities to resolve these issues. Both the USA and Russia are interested in maintaining relations in hot spots. Therefore, in all these areas, the leadership of both countries tries to go closer.

Vladimir Sogrin, Head of the Center for North American Studies of the Institute of Universal History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences:

The Republican Party is gaining strength and strengthens its position. In the future, this means that Russian-American relations can wait for a deterioration, although they have reached the bottom, and it would seem nowhere to fall.

In Russia, many believe that Obama’s rating began to decline due to aggressive policy against other countries, including Russia, but this is fundamentally incorrect-the reason is that the Americans consider his policy too soft.

Republicans will insist on a tough line against Russia - and the conditions have now developed for this. Obama came to power after the fantastic failure of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, which gave rise to the so -called Iraqi and Afghan syndrome: the Americans are tired of the war. And the concept of multi -partness, proposed first to Obama, caused enthusiasm. But Obama brought the country out of the Iraqi and Afghan crisis, and this syndrome weakened - now the Americans returned to the idea of American leadership, and the president cannot resist the will of their voters. The only reason that the Americans will again abandon the idea of leadership again is if the country is plunging into a new serious catastrophe like a war against Iran, but this is unlikely.

Another myth is common in our country: Republicans are a more pragmatic party than democrats, and they pursue a more balanced foreign policy. This is not so - there were two examples in history when the Republicans proved to be more balanced than democrats. The first - when Eisenhower became the president, but the reason was that Stalin died, and Khrushchev came to power, who proclaimed the concept of peaceful coexistence. The second-under the presidential republican Nixon: before that, the United States suffered a crushing defeat in the war in Vietnam, it was urgent to pull the country out of this story, and Nixon proposed the idea of discharge that was supported in the USSR. In general, the policies of the Republicans are more stringent-this was proved by both Reagan and Bush Jr.. During the 2012 election campaign, Republican candidate Romni called Russia an enemy number one. Obama, before the Ukrainian crisis, has never included our country among enemies.

Being represented in both wards, the Republicans, of course, will be able to influence not only domestic, but also foreign policy. All serious decisions on the provision of military assistance, on armed intervention, and military spending should be approved by Congress. Congress determines the military budget - and now that the majority of the Republicans are there, it will be categorically against the large -scale reduction of military expenses proposed by Obama.

Relations between Russia and the United States are now worse, but they have where to deteriorate. Obviously, Russia will not refuse the help of the DPR and LPR, although it is trying to somehow cover this support-as in the case of the elections, the results of which we recognized, but officially did not congratulate the newly elected chapters. But you can’t spend America so easily. The influence of the United States is now great, more than ever in Western Europe. And the sanctions are far from exhausted. There are many options: restricting the possibilities of lending to banks, a ban on the sale of high technologies, sanctions on oil supplies. Russia is deeply integrated into the global economy, so it has something to lose.

Valery Garbuzov, Deputy Director of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences:

Relations between Russia and the USA were actually brought to zero - and this happened long before the intermediate elections to Congress. The Americans are now following the long -term trend for the deterrence of Russia. Democrats and Republicans are extremely unanimous in a distinctly negative attitude towards Russia.

Republicans criticized Obama for excessive softness, and one of the results of this criticism is his current policy. Both the Democrats and the Republicans look at Russia as an revisionist power, which seeks to restore its former greatness, to recreate something similar to the USSR. Therefore, the current actions of Russia are perceived by everyone as a challenge to the United States.

The results of the elections here will not change much, in addition, the congress is aimed primarily at domestic policy. But it is in the Russian direction that the Republicans are quite good companions for Obama. On budget problems, public debt, it will be difficult for them to find a common language. And here there will be no special disputes - today, at least.