Translated material
Tax maneuver
Distracting maneuver. Obviously: the authorities will raise taxes. Multi-billion-dollar promises that Putin was born during the presidential campaign, expenses for the military-industrial complex and salaries of people in uniform of all stripes plus the Olympics and so on-someone will have to pay for all this. Who and how much - the options considered The New Times
Business offers
While the authorities are trying to decide, the business has prepared its proposals. Business Russia has unveiled the concept of “15-15-15”: to reduce income tax rate to 15% from 20%, insurance premiums - to 15% from 30%, value added tax (VAT) - up to 15% from 18%. “It is such a level that is acceptable for business, which is sensitive to tax, value added and profit,” explains Alexander Galushka, president of Business Russia . The income of the budget under the concept of “15-15-15” will amount to 2.2 trillion rubles, which the “business Russia” proposes to compensate for the increase in the tax on minerals (NPPs), and specifically - for gas (will bring 0.9 trillion rubles), excise taxes on tobacco (0.8 trillion rubles), excise taxes and strong alcohol (0.3 TRLN rubles). Another 0.2 trillion rubles can bring a change in the property of individuals of individuals: it is offered residential real estate up to 50 sq.m per city resident not to tax, and to establish a progressive scale for the living space.
But an increase in the load on the raw material sector is dissatisfied with a large business. “Our position is that the tax policy is balanced. It is impossible for the whole load to fall on a large raw material business. Otherwise, this will result in the growth of tariffs, ”explains Andrei Tikhonovsky, deputy head of the Committee of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) . According to the sources of The New Times, close to government circles, the differences between large and medium -sized businesses have become one of the reasons why the departments could not agree on a tax maneuver on time.
Proposals mayor
Elvira Nabiullina’s department defends its own version of tax maneuver. Its meaning, according to the head of the ministry, is to create the best conditions for innovative companies, which in the foreseeable future should become the main locomotives of domestic economic growth. For this, Nabiullina offers to free the equipment of companies from property tax (now 2.2%), "to give incentives for its updating." Also provide a five-year profit on income tax, property and land for the so-called Greenfield projects *** Projects, investments in which go from scratch., Moreover, in any areas, except for the extraction of raw materials. Stanislav Voskresensky, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, estimated the volume of budget revenues for these projects, estimated at 140 billion rubles.
The mayor proposes to compensate for these losses due to the abolition of benefits for the linear infrastructure of monopolies (it includes, for example, the land under gas pipelines or the railway track). The cancellation of the benefits, according to the mayor, will cost Gazprom in 95.2 billion rubles in three years, Russian Railways will lose 83.6 billion, Transneft will cost 34.7 billion. The ministry proposes to compensate for the growth of the ministry with a gradual increase in tariffs for their services. “Gazprom” can survive such an increase in taxes, ”Denis Borisov, an analyst in Nomos Bank, is sure . “The internal gas prices will simply increase more intensively, which the state intends to increase until 2015.” But the most resonance proposal mayor is the introduction of luxury tax. The ministry considers a luxury of real estate with an area of 1000 sq.m (for which a rate of 0.1% of the cadastral value is planned), as well as cars with a capacity of 250 and 300 hp. (The tax burden on their owners can grow up to 50 thousand rubles a year).
The director of the Department of Strategic Analysis of the FBK Igor Nikolaev is very controversial : “It is not clear why housing of 1000 sq.m is a luxury, but, say, there are no more at 700-800 sq.m. At the same time, many cars that are not considered super -expensive and super -densitable in the market fall into the category of luxury. It seems that officials chose criteria for themselves: in order not to pay either for their large (but still not kilometer) apartments, nor for cars (which they have mostly official). ”
Supply of the Ministry of Finance
According to the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the reconfiguration of the budget system should be carried out by increasing the EUT, excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol and the abolition of regional tax benefits. Excise taxes on bad habits will gradually increase according to the Ministry of Finance for five years. Moreover, next year the budget will receive an additional 60 billion rubles from this. The abolition of regional tax benefits, primarily in land and property, according to Siluanov, will bring about 200 billion rubles to regional budgets. Well, gas rates should grow to such a level that 80% of the growth of domestic prices for blue fuel is removed to the budget through the personal income tax, the minister believes. In this case, the budget can receive an additional about 1% of GDP per year (about 600 billion rubles). Gas prices should rise by about 15% per year, until parity with Western European countries is reached, the Uralsib Capital analyst Alexei Kokin recalls . “Siluanov’s idea is that Gazprom should receive only 20%from this growth, and only 3%will be net profit growth,” he explains. In fact, for Gazprom it is proposed to establish approximately the same tax regime as for oil companies: when the price of a barrel rises by $ 1, the oilmen receive approximately 20-30 cents, the rest goes to the budget.
Smoke curtain *
All talk about the maneuver is nothing more than a “smoke curtain”, behind which the elementary desire to strengthen the fiscal press is hidden, some interlocutors of The New Times believe, otherwise the authorities simply cannot fulfill their budgetary obligations and will have to significantly reduce defense expenses, law enforcement officers and the state apparatus. "
Strengthening the fiscal press will lead to the massive growth of non -payments, the return of gray tax schemes and business care in the shadow
"According to the head of the Economic Expert Group Evsey Gurvich , the government of the government considers the option of increasing VAT by 2–4% (up to 20–22%), the introduction of a progressive income tax scale, the return of the insurance premiums 34% with the transfer of part of the load (4%) to the employee. According to Gurvich, the implementation of these plans can bring almost 2% of the VDP per year, or the budget, or the budget, or the budget. About 1.2 trillion rubles, however, this is only on paper, the head of the economic expert group clarifies: in fact, a similar strengthening of the fiscal press will lead to a massive growth of non -payments, the return of gray tax schemes and the care of business in the shadow.
It is impossible to increase taxes now - this will be a new blow to the investment attractiveness of Russia, the director of macroeconomic research of the Higher School of Economics Sergei Aleksashenko is sure: “It is better to engage in the government not to increase taxes, but by the efficiency and transparency of budget expenditures, the fight against corruption and kickbacks. Because if the authorities cannot or does not want to control its expenses and moderate their own appetites, then it is not entitled to tighten tax requests. ”