Window for Medvedev

The other day I was talking to a smart man. Very moderate, very balanced, at times and places loyal (but in a way that does not harm one’s reputation), at times and in places oppositional (but in a way that does not harm one’s health). A smart man told me: “They will be covered. Now it's completely obvious." “And when?” - I asked. “And when the money runs out, it’s gone. If they try to play dictatorship, tighten the screws, and demonstratively imprison someone, they will get screwed very quickly - they have little guts. They won't turn it up enough, they won't push it too hard, and everything will explode. If they just relax and surrender to the flow of history, they will go out for a while, and then they will die anyway.”

This optimistic reasoning, however, is by no means original in these troubled times, suffers, as it seems to me, from one significant flaw - it is too abstract. And because of this, although it caresses the ear and awakens the imagination, it looks not so much lightweight, but somehow not entirely realistic. Well, really, how do we imagine this? Remember, in Soviet times there was such a ditty: “I got up in the morning - hello, there is no Soviet power...” The fact that then everything went approximately according to this scenario gives rise today to vague hopes that the security officers will dissolve somehow unnoticed. That is, of course, we will stand for a couple of days at the White House, cheering as Putin departs in a helicopter, then some dashing guy will climb onto a tank, all covered with carnations, give a fiery speech, and we will go to celebrate the final and now irrevocable victory of democracy.

It's not bad if everything happens like this. But somehow I doubt it. My doubts are based on one simple, but nevertheless immutable fact - Putin has absolutely nowhere to go of his own free will. At least literally, at least figuratively. He, willingly or unwillingly, created such a situation for himself. In other words, it can only be left. The disappearance of Putin from the political arena is the main and indispensable condition for changing the political regime in Russia.

There are only two scenarios for Putin's departure. One without Medvedev's participation. The other is with the participation of Medvedev. But both the first and second options have one obligatory condition - they are both feasible only in the presence of powerful pressure from civil society. Moreover, its various components - from elites to office managers and the manufacturing sector. This does not mean at all that politicians currently loyal to the authorities and tycoons admitted to the feeding trough will join the friendly ranks of the demonstrators. They will stand in opposition to the government at the very moment when they realize that this very power no longer provides them with the preservation of the status quo, stability, and minimal guarantees of the inviolability of their political and financial position. They will begin to hedge their bets and look for other points of support. Here, of course, much will depend on the degree of affiliation. This is called a split in the elites. At the slightest threat of a real crisis, the authorities, at the first signs of collapse of Putin’s pyramid, will begin to drain everyone who will be able to do so. Moreover, today I would not even undertake to guess who would be in the forefront of persecutors and detractors of the “national leader”. If it seems to someone that the list of these people is obvious, and all of them, to one degree or another, adjoin the so-called “liberal” wing of the current power structure, then I would not rush to such conclusions - there may be the most unexpected surprises here. And the lamentations “but we didn’t know the whole truth”, “we were sincerely mistaken” will flow from both the Duma and the Federation Council. And there will be some powerful security official, a “real colonel,” who will loudly begin to brand and expose, expose and brand. And it will be shown on all television channels, because the leaders of this very television also knew nothing and had no idea about anything. Not to mention political commentators and presenters of analytical programs. This has always been the case everywhere. It will be the same in Russia.

What opportunities open up for Dmitry Medvedev in this situation? Not much, to be honest. He will either share the fate of his senior comrade, which, I note in passing, may not be easy, or he himself will lead a campaign to liberalize political life in Russia. And they will have to start with an act in comparison with which the war with Georgia will seem like a child’s prank - Medvedev will have to dismiss Putin, thereby announcing the start of political reforms. Only this step can count towards him.

There is no doubt that today many will say - a utopia of clean water. Even if we assume that Medvedev has the will and determination to commit such a reckless act, then in order for it not to look like an adventure at all, one must have some significant resource and enlist the support of some important officials in different departments. And who are the people who will agree to take such risks?

But no one is saying that Medvedev faces a simple task. But let us still not forget that, although formally, he is the head of state, and, therefore, must be aware of some kind of responsibility to the country and strive to ensure that events in it develop in a constitutional direction. In addition, as they say, he is not a stupid person at all and at some point he will definitely understand that he simply has no other chance to stay afloat.

Photo used from the website www.kremlin.ru