When will Fradkov be fired?

Rumors about the resignation of Mikhail Fradkov arise once every six months, but so far the Prime Minister remains in his chair. Despite the fact that the relationship between him and Alexei Kudrin has already reached a boiling point. In Russia, however, such issues are resolved on the basis of political rather than economic expediency (the latter implies the need for the coordinated work of the government).

Indeed, the minister wants to go to Davos in order to meet with his colleagues in the “eight” - the prime minister does not let him in. The prime minister plans to reduce VAT from 18 to 13% - the minister is breaking the coalition with Gref against this project. The Minister screams about the possibility of increasing inflation and even its exiting control-the prime minister demonstrates the Olympic calm on this issue. It is simply impossible to talk about the normal work of the Cabinet of Ministers in this situation. It is clear that everyone appeals to the presidential arbitration, but not everything is simple with this.

Vladimir Putin repeatedly expressed his approval of the government - and, therefore, the prime minister. Let us recall that claims to the previous cabinet are accusations of non -ambitiousness and unwillingness to conduct administrative reform - the president began to voice a couple of years before the resignation of Mikhail Kasyanov. Now everything is calm, smooth - at least outwardly. And at the same time, at a press conference, when it comes to a stab fund and a decrease in taxes, the president gives answers that could well sound from the mouth of Kudrin.

After a series of presidential statements, it is almost impossible to dismiss the prime minister “on inconsistency” in the foreseeable perspective. However, the famous Soviet wording remains - about retirement for health reasons. There is a soil for this: it is enough to recall the parables that have already become a lady about the malaise of the prime minister, whom the cat will bite (this last year’s story was clearly provocative, but the abolition of the premier visit to Latin America is a fact), then the ARI will fight. They talk about diabetes as a real cause of premiere health problems. It should be noted, however, that Diabetes did not interfere with the duties of many statesmen - let us recall at least the People’s Commissar of Foreign Affairs Chicherin, who has not accustomedly led his institution for ten years (and only the last two years before the resignation was actually out of work). So in the case of a decision to change the head of government, there will certainly be priority.

Now the premiere’s resignation script for health reasons looks extremely controversial. The fact is that it is not easy to touch Fradkova: the whole complex system of checks and counterweights that exist in the Putin environment can begin to crumble, and in it, by definition, the premiere plays far from the last role. The sensational appearance of Fradkov as the head of the government is associated with the factor of Igor Sechin - therefore, to maintain the balance and the new prime minister, in theory, should be a protege of “St. Petersburg security forces” (or rather, that part of them, which is associated with “Rosneft”). Nobody can guarantee this - especially when you consider that this part of the presidential environment seems to have no his candidate for successors. Previously, they say, Putin himself was, but there are less and less opportunities (at least time) to implement the “third term” option.

But this is not the main thing. If we appoint one of his two new deputies-Medvedev or Ivanov-the entire political class will immediately come to the conclusion that this is the long-awaited successor who is destined to win the 2008 elections. It is clear that the successor of the current president is more convenient to conduct an election campaign from the post of head of government: the recognized “person number two” in the system of power both under the Constitution, and from the point of view of elites and the population. It will be extremely difficult to change his decision and appoint someone else in this situation to Putin. Do the president need these complications now, who, most likely, had not yet made a fundamental choice (it was no coincidence that at a press conference he defiantly refused to call even candidates for the role of his replacement)?

If you dismiss Fradkov and put in its place the next “intermediate” figure (for example, put forward by the same Sichin - so as not to violate the balance of interests), then the dangerous effect of the premiere “Czechard” is created, and he is unprofitable for the authorities. The population of the premieres was ready to endure from Yeltsin, whose “clums” of which everyone was accustomed (and even then we are talking about the last, least successful years of his reign). It is extremely undesirable to change the head of government every year every year every year.

It seems that in the near future the premiere's resignation looks unlikely. Rather, it can be expected by the end of 2006 - the beginning of 2007, when the issue of parliamentary elections will become more relevant (they traditionally play the role of “primaries” in Russia before the presidential, so that the successor probably “rolls over” them, which will allow him to increase his own rating). Recall that Gryzlov - the “number one” of the party in the 2003 election - was finally agreed on about a year before the vote, when he headed the Supreme Council of United Russia, and now forgotten, but once very influential Bespalov (who had already seen the main organizer of the campaign) was removed from party posts. It is possible that now the solution of the issue will be postponed until the moment when the delay becomes impossible, and the principle of balance of interests in the presidential environment, although it remains significant, will still be inferior to electoral priorities.