Needs care

Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky is an almost perfect candidate for the post of temporary president of the transition period or at least for the place of the transition prime minister. He understands the need to combine the liberal priority of personality rights with the left social policy. He understands that you can not hide your head in the sand from the painful questions that nationalists raise. This already gives him a chance to find mutual understanding with the widest spectrum of political forces and consolidate them around him.

But Khodorkovsky is wrong. In fact, he supported the young and energetic leader of the “moderate party” in QSO, Xenia Sobchak in its main requirement: the opposition should hide the slogan of the removal of Vladimir Putin from the authorities.

The main thesis of moderate today is the requirements of partial concessions, gradual reforms are able to mobilize a larger number of people to mass shares. The reinforcement of this thesis gives two arguments that are poorly compatible with each other. The first is that many dissatisfied consider the change of power unrealistic and do not want to "harness" into a hopeless business. The second - many dissatisfied consider Putin’s “abnormal” departure of Putin to dangerous, fraught with painful upheavals, and therefore undesirable.

Well, let's say, some part of the citizens adheres to the first position, and some-the second. But the most vulnerable place of the moderate concept is different. They proceed from the fact that the requirements of partial liberalization of the regime that do not encroach on the essence of the authorities are, in principle, are in principle acceptable - in any case, the regime resistance barrier will be lower. But why, then, Kremlin not only did not try to slow down the degree of dissatisfaction with at least one small, but still real liberal concession, but on the contrary, hastily defend the remaining cracks, which gave legal output to the protest and organized opposition activities in general? Apparently, the ruling kleptocracy does not hope to maintain power for a long time in conditions of even partial liberalization of the regime. Well, here they definitely know better.

The Kremlin will either resist the implementation of all kinds of liberal projects as persistently as the requirement of Putin’s departure, or try to replace them with without changing imitations. They will go to real concessions only if they realize that the abandonment of them will lead to loss of power faster and more unpleasant consequences. But what threat of their power can the social movement pose that does not cast their status into question? So the requirement of Putin’s departure not only does not interfere with the implementation of the wonderful draft judicial reform (thanks to Ksenia Sobchak for its development!), But in principle, it increases the chances of accepting its current authorities. However, these chances are purely theoretical.

The protest movement made a lot of specific private requirements, about which the authorities wiped the legs. And now the requirement of Putin’s departure should become central - as a natural result of a demonstrative non -fulfillment by the authorities of all previously declared.

Speak, people will not support this requirement due to its unexpectedness? But the impracticable today is becoming feasible tomorrow. This will happen when people have a will. And it manifests itself not only in the mass of movement, but also in its perseverance - in the ability to achieve its own for a long time, despite the lack of quick results. Volya is not taken from a rational calculation of chances and benefits. Professional politicians are engaged in such calculations. But tens of thousands of citizens went out to protest against false elections simply because they experienced a sense of humiliation from impudent deception. To maintain self -esteem, they must constantly demonstrate that they are not slaves. That they did not forgive the crooks and thieves in the power of the cynical theft of their votes. That the current government is illegitimate, which means that it should be released to those who will be elected without fraud. This must be constantly reminded, this must be constantly repeated. This was written by Comrade Khodorkovsky, former KGB General, Communist Alexei Kondaurov. And he concludes: "The abandonment now from the absolutely fair requirement of the resignation of illegitimate power means actual consent with the falsifications that took place, the betrayal of thousands of humiliated fellow citizens and loss and not so high trust."

There is a war of nerves and will. Yes, the regime still has a considerable resource of resistance. And tomorrow Putin will not go anywhere. But whether he will sit in the Kremlin the day after tomorrow - the question is no longer so unambiguous. Regular thousands of rallies and processions demanding his departure will inevitably undermine and shake the personalist regime. Because they will make it funny and miserable. They will simply stop respecting him. And still enthusiastic admirers from the "simple", and representatives of the ruling "elite". You look, and the “collective Putin” can decide that his collective interests do not coincide in everything with the personal interests of Vladimir Putin.

“The more votes and persistently, the non -recognition of the false December and March elections will be articulated, the more likely a crack in the Kremlin foundation,” Kondaurov continues. And Igor Petrov reassures the moderate: "There will be no collapse, because Vladimir Putin will never leave without transferring power to another person in the order that would guarantee the future of him personally and a certain stability to the country." But the possibilities for the influence of "groups of interests", including for the democratization of the system, will expand. "The authorities will nevertheless be forced to begin to gradually satisfy the requirements. According to changes in legislation. According to the media. For courts. According to the deputies of the State Duma, how will it go."

I do not really believe in such a "happy ending". I think the "collective Putin" will be hopelessly late with the "satisfaction of the requirements." And no concessions will be able to kill and drown out the main general requirement "Down with!". And Vladimir Putin may not have time to transfer power to "his man." Therefore, seducing moderate, I want to connect their resources to the implementation of the revolutionary scenario. But what the hell is not joking? Lenin spoke when shortly before his death suddenly felt the need to make excuses in his deed: "What a fool would go to the revolution if there really were reform?"