The bummer of the pipe

The appearance of Vladimir Putin at the ceremony of the commissioning of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, according to the organizers, should once again demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian efforts to create new transit gas pipelines that would allow European countries to receive gas without traditional intermediaries - first of all, of course, without Ukraine.

However, this gas pipeline is not a success, but rather the defeat of Putin. The first branch of the "Turkish stream", by which Russian gas will enter Turkey, and even with a significant discount, is all that remains of the idea of ​​the "southern flow" with its four export branches. Yes, the "Turkish stream" will develop, but only one branch for gas export to southern Europe will be completed. Another, and not three more. And at the same time, the new gas pipeline will apply to the new gas pipeline - and Russia agreed with this, although at one time it was precisely because of the intention of Bulgaria to adhere to these rules that turned the construction of the Southern Stream.

But the main thing, of course, is not the same. And the fact that, according to the Putin’s plan, the construction of two gas pipelines - the Nord Stream - 2 and the Turkish Stream - was supposed to be completed before the end of last year, when the term of the Russian -Ukrainian agreement on gas transit expired. In this case, Moscow could generally abandon the use of the Ukrainian pipe, blackmail Kyiv with the disappearance of transit income and feel much more freely if it were necessary to start intense military operations in Ukraine.

None of the plan could be implemented. "Northern Stream - 2" has not yet been completed, the end of its construction is blocked by American sanctions. In the project "Turkish stream" only a gas delivery branch to Turkey was built. And what is important - all new gas pipelines cannot be filled by 100 percent according to the European Energy Directive.

In these conditions, Gazprom still had to conclude a new long -term agreement with Naftogaz of Ukraine on the continuation of the transit of Russian gas.

The only thing that Putin can use today is the weakness and inexperience of the new Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky in order to withdraw from Gazprom the threat of new Ukrainian claims, which - if Kyiv had not exchanged them for three billion dollars necessary for Zelensky “yesterday” - could simply ruin the “Kremlin wallet”.

Agreements with Zelensky for gas are, of course, both the achievement and luck of Putin, who brilliantly used the degradation of Ukrainian society and his dependence on pro -Russian oligarchic propaganda. But this is not at all what Putin wanted. Ukraine is not devoid of transit, and it is not in his pocket. And all that remains in this situation is only a form that he has achieved real success, and hug with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who used Putin's miscalculations in order to get a personal gas pipeline and cheap Russian gas.