Hawking deficit

MIM -23 HAWK - missile interceptor

The United States announced the next package of military assistance to Ukraine. It turned out to be relatively modest - 400 million dollars, like the previous package of 275 million. Previously, one military aid package of Kyiv usually ranged from 600 million to $ 1 billion. In all likelihood, the reduction in the absolute volume of assistance in monetary terms is associated primarily with the coming on November 8 with intermediate elections to Congress.

The current help package is the last before the elections. Most likely, the administration of Joe Biden decided not to annoy those groups of voters who suffer from inflation to the greatest extent - they may not like that Ukraine is allocated billions of dollars at the moment when America has their internal problems. If this reason is really the main one, then after November 8, a significant increase in the size of American assistance should be expected. Moreover, after a very probable victory of the Republicans in the intermediate elections, the current American administration will be interested in the supply of the maximum number of weapons to Ukraine before the work of the new Congress in January, when some of the Republicans may sabotage assistance to Kyiv.

However, a decrease in the volume of assistance may be associated with the action of an objective factor - an exhaustion of stocks of certain types of weapons and ammunition for them in the warehouses of the American army. For the production of new weapons, already on orders directly for the needs of Ukraine, time is required. For example, still the United States has delivered 20 Himars installations to Ukraine, which largely broke the situation at the front. None of them have still been lost. Another 18 Himars for Ukraine has already been ordered, but they will be delivered no earlier than 2023. In addition, Ukraine received a total of 14 various modifications from other NATO countries (Britain, Germany, France with the participation of Norway), in its properties of similar Himars, and in combat power of superior Himars (M270 is capable of producing 12 reactive ammunition in one salvo, and Himars - 6). There is also no information that at least one M270 installation has been lost so far. If you count all the MLRS to conditional Himars, then Ukraine now has 48 such attitudes, and next year it can get another 18 Himars. That's just about the production of new M270 for Ukraine is not yet heard. Representatives of the Armed Forces have repeatedly stated that for successful defense they need at least 50 Himars systems, and for a successful counter -offset at least 100. It turns out that Ukraine has almost received a sufficient number of modern MLRS for defense, but it is difficult to say when the threshold necessary for offensive operations is reached.

Also, the Americans still, at least officially, do not supply ATACMS missiles to Ukraine with a range of up to 300 kilometers. In the case of their mass supplies, not only the Crimean bridge would be destroyed for a long time, but many other logistics objects would also be disabled, which would finally provide a fracture in the war in favor of Ukraine. It should also be borne in mind that the head of ATACMS carries 2.5 times a more powerful charge than ordinary missiles used for Himars.

The new American military aid package of $ 400 million includes, in particular, an unnamed number of HAWK air defense systems ("hawk"), which Spain also promised to put Spain to Ukraine. This is the predecessor of the well -known complex about Patriot. Hawk was developed to destroy aircraft, and later was finalized to intercept missiles in flight. However, it is much less effective against the latter than Patriot. True, Hawk is much cheaper: one complex costs $ 15 million, while the Patriot battery is about one billion dollars. Even taking into account the fact that in the Patriot battery from 4 to 8 launches, the difference in the cost of one starting installation is at least eight times. Patriot complexes could be much more reliable for covering the cities of Ukraine from Russian missiles and protecting critical infrastructure objects from strikes, the destruction of which can cause a new stream of refugees to Europe this winter. It is not clear why giving Ukraine HAWK complexes is a permissible escalation, and supplying Patriot is unacceptable.

The same picture with tanks. The new assistance package included 45 modernized T-72 tanks belonging to the Czech Republic (the US and the Netherlands conducted modernization, in return the Czechs will receive American armored vehicles). Another 45 tanks will be delivered next year. Again, the question: why not immediately put the American "Abrams" - and thereby, by the way, to deprive Germany not to supply its "leopards". Does anyone seriously believe that due to the supply of Ukraine, a couple of dozens of modern tanks, Putin will use nuclear weapons?

The supply of 1100 PHONIX GHOST drum drones intended to combat lightly armored equipment is, of course, useful. Only 700 has yet received such drones. The 250 BTR M1117 included in the same package will be very useful for a counterattack. And the supply of 40 river armored boards is likely to anticipate the crossing of the Dnieper by the Ukrainian army. However, all this cannot replace all that are still absent in the packages of military assistance to modern tanks, aircraft and long -range missiles.

It remains to be hoped that after November 8, the Biden administration will act mightfully. After all, Ukraine and its allies need to win in a reasonable time, without waiting for Europeans and Americans to get tired of the war. Putin’s strategy is now reduced to the retention of most of the captured territories, with the possible evacuation of the Kherson bridgehead and conducting private offensive operations in the Donbass. He counts on tightening the war, that fatigue will force the United States and the European Union to persuade Ukraine to compromise.

However, surrounded by Putin is already more explicit german . The fascinating process of shifting guilt for defeat on each other began, and in the near future it can have the most unexpected consequences.