Slaughter limit

Detention for shares against mobilization. Photo: Sota

In Russia, many supporters of the “wars to the victorious end” expected that in connection with the latest failures of the Russian troops in Ukraine, Putin would build his fateful speech in the style of the famous Stalinist order No. 227 “Not a step back!”: “The enemy throws all new forces to the front and, regardless of the losses for him, climbs forward, tears into the depths of the Republics of Donbass and liberated regions of Ukraine, captures The new areas of the Ukrainian and Donetsk cities and villages, rape, robs and kills the Ukrainian and Donetsk population. Kupyansk, Volchansk, raisins. Such conversations are false and harmful, they weaken us and strengthen the enemy, because if we do not stop retreat, we will be left without bread, without fuel, without metal, without raw materials, without factories and factories, without railways. Not a step back! So now there should be our main call. Our homeland is experiencing heavy days. We must stop, and then discard and defeat the enemy, no matter what it costs us. Bandera is not as strong as it seems panicars. They strain the last forces. To withstand their blow now, in the next few months, it means to provide us with victory. "

Instead, Russian attatox imperialists heard statements in the spirit of "everything is fine, beautiful marquise." Although the Stalinist formula "Dear brothers and sisters!" I was also present. And the words about the "Bandera" - rapists, robbers and killers. But not a word about the severe defeat of the Russian troops near Kharkov, about the ongoing counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And completely mockingly in the light of the real state of affairs at the front there are Putin's words that "our units, as well as military units of the Republic of Donbass, act systematically, competently use equipment, and protect personnel."

And where without the traditional nuclear blackmail: "In the threat of the territorial integrity of our country, to protect Russia and our people, we certainly use all the means at our disposal. This is not a bluff. Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind rose can also unfold in their direction." But this is precisely the bluff.

President Joe Biden, speaking at the UN General Assembly, answered the Putin's horror story: “Countries that decide to defend the principles and beliefs that we pledged to protect, as members of the United Nations, must be firm and unshakable in their determination in support of Ukraine, which has the same rights that is solidly with Ukraine against Russian aggression.” The United States is not going to stop military and other assistance to Ukraine and, as we can assume, do not consider the nuclear threat from Russia a real due to the inevitable destructive response to the use of nuclear weapons by the Kremlin.

It is clear that fake blitz-referendums , which will be held on the occupied territories of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions (compared to them in the Kadyrovskaya Chechnya-a model of democracy), pursue two goals: to mobilize in Ukrainian territories occupied after February 23, and its allies to nuclear nuclear weapons. Like, since these will already be the territories of Russia, any actions of the Armed Forces in these territories are aggression against Russia, which means, according to the Russian military doctrine, Moscow has the right to use nuclear weapons. Thus, the Kremlin expects to stop the Ukrainian counterattack and achieve a truce on the existing front line. Neither in that nor the other Putin will succeed. The Ukrainian counterattack will continue, despite pseudo -referendums and Russian mobilization. And the call of Ukrainians from the recently occupied territories to the Russian army is a dubious idea, especially taking into account the strong partisan movement in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions .

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu supplemented Putin's speech with information about losses: supposedly Russian losses from the beginning of the special operation amounted to 5937 killed, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 61,207 dead and 49,368 wounded. Obviously, these figures have nothing to do with reality. If in the Russian army the same proportion of the dead and wounded as in the Ukrainian, then, according to Shoigu, the Russian army lost no more than 10,000 killed and wounded. But at the same time, she needs 300,000 reservists!

The real losses of the parties can be calculated using the ratio of confirmed losses in the armored vehicles of the ground forces according to the Oryx investigation site. This coefficient from the very beginning of the war was in favor of Ukraine. After the start of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov on September 6, the Oryx coefficient constantly grew. From the evening of September 5 to the evening of September 21, he rose from 3.67 to 4.05. We assume that the ORYX coefficient reflects the approximate ratio of the loss of the parties killed and wounded. On the morning of September 21, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian regular army lost 55,110 killed. We assume that on the Russian side there are two wounded on one murdered. The number of those killed as part of the formations of the DPR and the LPR and Wagnerians we estimate as 1.8 times less than the number of those killed in the regular Russian army, that is, 30,600 people. Then the total number of those killed from the Russian side from the beginning of the war and to September 21 can be estimated at 85,700 people, and the total number of wounded in 171,400 people. In total, this gives 257 thousand. This decline is designed to cover 300,000 reservists.

Few people drew attention to the fact that Putin’s decree on partial mobilization leaves current and future soldiers in the ranks of the Russian army until the end of the war with Ukraine. Indeed, after the expiration of the service life, they are subject to conscription in the framework of partial mobilization and forced transfer to the contract, which eliminates all obstacles to send them to the combat zone. Most likely, this replenishment due to the current conscripts is not included in the announced number of a partial call.

In a short time, an additional 300,000 people will not be able to call - for them there is neither command staff, nor weapons, nor military equipment. Mobilized will enter the front in parties of several tens of thousands of people and quickly grind in battles, without combat experience and good training. Very quickly, to replenish growing losses, they will have to call those who did not serve in the army before. Then the current Russia risks repeating the path of tsarist Russia in the First World War . In 1915, personnel officers and non-commissioned officers in the tsarist army almost ended, and she suffered heavy defeats at the front. Power and society fell into a permanent crisis, which ended in the February revolution of 1917.