Not ended with luck

That the attempt to organize the Maidan-3 is someone's failed technology, it finally became clear on Monday in the morning, when the Kiev communal services without much resistance of the protesters took their belongings and trash, which was laid down in two days on the Maidan, and one tent with a small group of people around the capital remained in the center of the capital. Public activists, volunteers, leaders of opinions not only did not support protest - the majority spoke sharply against such actions of frankly marginal persons that are obscure to society.

The only question remained: who is the organizer and who is the customer of these demonstrations? And why didn’t they manage to rock the situation in Kyiv? We talked about this with the Ukrainian sociologist, doctor of philosophical sciences Evgeny Golovakha .

- In Ukrainian society, protest moods are clearly felt. Why did an attempt to rock the situation and bring people to the streets on February 20, failed?

• Protest moods do not always lead to protest actions. This requires several conditions. As for the specific events that took place in Kyiv on February 20, then, apparently, an experiment was delivered according to the well -known formula: "Do you want the tops and can the lower classes want?" They put a scene, brought firewood, tents, a small number of people for the experiment were prepared. At the moment, the experiment has given a negative result. The lower classes still want, but the tops can do something else. But it was very difficult to predict the behavior of the masses, so I had to put a social experiment.

Over the past year, a deterioration in the psychological atmosphere in Ukrainian society and some increase in the level of protest moods have really been noted. But these two factors are not always enough for mass performances. If several thousand people who would support the organizers reached a declared action of Neomaydan, this would mean that it is possible to raise a new wave of destabilization in society. But since the experiment gave a negative result, all this is postponed until the next feeling that the situation has risen.

- What do you think could be the customer of the experiment?

• Several politicians were spinning there, as Russians say, from the "non -systemic opposition." But all this turned out to be extremely few in order to raise a serious protest wave.

What is the main restraining factor now? Firstly, people understand that the next wave of destabilization will give an occasion to strengthen aggression from Russia, to deploy a new wave of hostilities, which people really do not want. Secondly, the hope of positive shifts has not yet been completely lost - after all, the abolition of the visa regime with the EU is declared, which for many, at least for pro -European people, is very important. Thirdly, this is the loss of the IMF tranche due to potential chaos and, accordingly, the destabilization of the economy. I would say that the critical mass of finally desperate people has not yet been accumulated.

- Many experts believe that events from the Kremlin were directed. How probably is this experiment ordered in Moscow?

• Everything can be. It is worth paying attention to how actively the events in Kyiv were covered by the Russian media. In Ukraine, there was less interest to what was happening on the Maidan than in Russia, although, it would seem, this should be more worried about us. But when you are dealing with conspiracy, it is difficult to say something with confidence. There could be internal interested political actors. This, by the way, is not so difficult to find out, and, I think, in the near future someone will track what kind of people are, where is the scene and firewood. Whose shock? It is unlikely that this group of people acquired a props for their own money.

- Among the leaders of the subboty pogroms and protests, frank marginals who do not enjoy special authority in Ukrainian society. It is not surprising that today they talk about the marginalization of the protest movement. And that the events of February 20 could be an attempt to “vaccinate” active citizens from future protests.

• Naturally, in the context of the impoverishment of the population, marginalization of protests will occur. The middle class is reduced - the base foundation of the first and second Maidan. And naturally the activity of marginals or lumpen increases. They, like that proletariat, have nothing to lose. Yes, this is a serious threat. But conscious citizens may well be accustomed to them, this also cannot be excluded. It would be a mistake to consider this event with a final “vaccination” and think that if people have not come out today, it guarantees that they will not come out for another time. Especially if there is a serious reason.

What happened last week? It seemed to someone that due to internal squabbles, the authorities had staggered and was no longer able to control the situation. But, apparently, this idea is not yet true. It seems that the events of the last week (the failure of voting for the resignation of the Cabinet and the crisis in the ruling coalition. - Ed.) - this is still more political games than a real split and confrontation. Any kind of protest brings success when the throne fluctuates. Apparently, the throne is still quite stable.

- And what can serve as a serious reason for conscious Ukrainian citizens?

• The first is an insult. People can still demolish malnutrition, but an insult is never. This will be a very serious incentive for powerful protests. The first Maidan happened because people were obviously deceived in the elections - brazenly and shamelessly. And the second Maidan had an even more serious reason - the beating of students. People felt that now they would speak with them in the language of batons. If such an occasion arises, the protests will be serious.

The second is a critical mass of desperate people. This is what politicians feel very well. Yes, for such protests, maybe you will have to pay a very high price, but which of the post -Soviet politicians thinks beyond their place in power?