The ghost of Yukos

Rosneft implements Mikhail Khodorkovsky's plan

As with any large-scale deal, divergent interests are involved in the share swap between Rosneft and BP. This is fine. However, the peculiarity of the Russian-British asset exchange frozen by the High Court of London in ...

As with any large-scale deal, divergent interests are involved in the share swap between Rosneft and BP. This is fine. However, the peculiarity of the Russian-British asset exchange frozen by the London High Court is that the number of skeletons removed from the cabinets of its participants clearly exceeds the norm. And the further, the more they become.

The deal has an obvious oddity. It can be guessed, first of all, outside the actual exchange of shares, measured by $14 billion, during which 9.5% of Rosneft is exchanged for 5% of BP and a joint venture is created, 2/3 owned by Rosneft and 1/3 owned by BP (it will explore and develop three licensed areas on the Arctic shelf of the Kara Sea). This oddity can be formulated as follows: the game of each of the participants is constantly on a foreign field.

Let's go to VR. After the experience that the current head of the company, Robert Dudley, received as the head of TNK-BP in 2003-2008, few would have taken it upon himself to assume that he would return to cooperation with Russian companies. But under his leadership, BP went on a second trip to Russia.

Of course, Dudley drew conclusions from a high-profile scandal two years ago, when TNK-BP's Russian shareholders accused their British partners of pursuing a policy exclusively in the interests of BP, while Russian interests were ignored by seizing leadership positions in the company. At the top, the anti-British position was supported. Prosecution checks began, then the courts began. Dudley was defeated, BP was forced to recall him.

Curiously, in 2008 there was a lot of talk that BP was ready to sell its stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft.

They also said, however, that the AAR consortium, which includes Mikhail Fridman's Alfa Group, Leonid Blavatnik's Access Industries, and Viktor Vekselberg's Renova, in turn, is ready to sell its stake in TNK-BP to Gazprom. As a result, these plans, if they were, were mutually destroyed.

In the second coming to Russia, Dudley chose a new partner. Almost immediately after the removal of Sergei Bogdanchikov, when in the fall of 2010 Rosneft was headed by Eduard Khudainatov, the parties entered into negotiations.

In the second half of last year, BP found itself in a very difficult position due to an accident in the Gulf of Mexico. She not only sold off her assets to pay the increasing fines, but also looked for new markets, as her reputation in the US was damaged. In this situation, an alliance with Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company, satisfied both parties. From an arithmetic point of view, Rosneft turned out to be the winner: if the exchange of shares is carried out on an equivalent basis, then in the joint venture created for work in the Arctic, 67% goes to Rosneft.

The idyll, however, did not work out. Yes, it could not have happened, since BP entered the Russian stage in an oil play in two roles and two different alliances at once. There is a conflict of interest. And someone who, and Robert Dudley, who studied the fighting temper of the AAR consortium well, probably foresaw complications.

Already on January 26, BP received official notice that the High Court of London would consider the claim of the AAR consortium. Let us note that the shareholders of TNK-BP, who represent TNK's side, also preferred to play in a foreign field.

The basis for the claim is that there is an agreement between AAR and BP by shareholders, according to one of the clauses of which all projects in Russia and Ukraine are implemented by partners through TNK-BP. Except for those cases when the board of directors of TNK-BP considers the project uninteresting for the company. However, in the case of plans for cooperation with Rosneft, BP did not go through the appropriate approval procedure with the board of directors of TNK-BP. AAR considers the deal between BP and Rosneft invalid.

The AAR consortium opened a second front against BP. On January 31, its representative said that the consortium decided to hit BP on the most painful place after the accident in the Gulf of Mexico - on the pocket, and blocked the transfer of $ 1.8 billion in dividends. This is quite a powerful tool for pressure on BP, considering that in 2010, for the first time since 1992, the company showed a net loss in its report, it amounted to $ 4.9 billion. The goal of AAR pressure is still the same - to force BP to abandon the deal.

On February 1, a London court froze the deal until February 25, when the Stockholm Arbitration Court must make its decision.

Robert Dudley commented on the current situation: the AAR claim was predictable, "we are quite satisfied with the prospect of an arbitration settlement." He also noted that TNK-BP could be involved as a participant in the Arctic project.

It would seem that, if not a happy ending, then at least a compromise is possible and close. But Prime-TASS reported that the senior Rosneft official did not share Dudley's complacency. The employee believes that his company did not consider partnership with TNK-BP in the context of an alliance with BP. “Rosneft's position regarding the chosen strategic partner remains,” he said.

It looks like Rosneft is ready to resort to non-judicial arguments. She has rich experience in using the power resource, so it is absolutely possible that the opposing members of the AAR consortium may encounter considerable difficulties in Russia. In war as in war.

However, it is time to make two digressions into the essence of the deal itself. The first one will be short. Hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic fields targeted by the Rosneft JV with BP were estimated at 49.7 million tons of oil and 1.8 trillion cubic meters of gas. However, Vladimir Putin, after meeting with Robert Dudley, reported completely different information: “Resources for oil amount to 5 billion tons, for gas - 10 trillion cubic meters. These are serious figures that require confirmation, but they are quite realistic, and I hope that these resources will turn into reserves, ”the prime minister said, referring to the total reserves of the shelf.

The main issue is the market. It is clear that production will not come soon, the start is expected no earlier than 2015, but it is no less clear that the American consumer is in sight. And if so, we should not forget that the evolution of the US market and, above all, the "shale revolution" has already forced Russia to abandon or at least shelve the plan to build a gas liquefaction plant at the neighboring Arctic field - Shtokmanskoye. So the trophies in the war between AAR, BP and Rosneft may be overestimated.

The second excursion will be deeper. It should be preceded by the fact that the union of BP and Rosneft caused a negative reaction in the United States. Democratic Congressman Edward Markey on January 21 formally addressed a request to US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, which, in part, said: "I believe there is sufficient evidence that this transaction may pose a threat to US national security." Reason - BP in 2009 was the main supplier of fuels and lubricants for the US military.

And now let's turn to the fact that Rosneft in its deal with BP, in turn, is playing on a foreign field.

Historically, this is the Yukos field. It's not even that today's Rosneft is half Yukos. The very plan for an alliance with BP was written off almost like a blueprint from the deal that Mikhail Khodorkovsky was not allowed to carry out in 2003.

The idea was to put the world's largest oil company under the control of the Russian management team. The deal was supposed to go through two stages. The first one was then successfully implemented - this was the merger of Yukos and Sibneft. The second, practically prepared, was that the combined Russian company was to make an exchange of shares with the American company Chevron. As a result, as Roman Abramovich, the former owner of Sibneft, said at the time, the Russian shareholders of the American company would have the largest stake, and this was a great chance for the team led by Khodorkovsky to be at the helm of the oil company, which became would be the world's flagship.

The plan was not implemented. He was certainly assessed as another manifestation of Khodorkovsky's political ambitions.

Farcical to the remake is not only the fact that the American legislator now sees a threat to US national security in the deal between BP and Rosneft, as in 2003 the Kremlin saw Khodorkovsky's plans as a direct political threat and, of course, all the same damage to national security. The caricature of the situation is given by the figure of Igor Sechin. In 2003, he was one of the main persecutors of Yukos, in 2008 he did a lot to ensure that Robert Dudley was removed from the post of head of TNK-BP, and now, in 2011, he, on behalf of the Russian government, was present at the signing of documents between " Rosneft and BP in Davos.

It is curious not that The Daily Telegraph in London, citing documents published on the Wikileaks website, on February 1 recalls the confessions of Dudley, who accused Igor Sechin and a number of other high-ranking Russian officials (including Sergei Prikhodko and Arkady Dvorkovich) of supporting the 2008 attack Russian shareholders of TNK-BP to British. Much more interesting is that the courts, which began with the decision of the High Court of London, may not be limited to arbitration in Stockholm. Shareholders of the de facto confiscated Yukos continue to be prosecuted, in particular Rosneft. And if they succeed in Strasbourg or Geneva (where the Yukos case is being considered by the Energy Charter arbitration), which, of course, will be developed, then the situation with the exchange of assets between Rosneft and BP will become not only confusing, but also damaging not only to Russia or United States, and first of all to the participants in the transaction.