Georgian blitzkrieg

So, Mikhail Saakashvili went va-Bank. Whatever the official Tbilisi declares, the fact remains: just at the moment when Saakashvili spoke on television, announcing a one -sided ceasefire, the Georgian troops had already completed the operational deployment to strike at Tskhinvali.

Regardless of how the Georgian blitzkrieg ends, Saakashvili pulled his country into a long difficult conflict, which will stop the development of Georgia for a long time. At the same time, the calculation in military terms was made on speed, with which well -armed Georgian contractors, the South Ossetian militias trained by the Americans.

As far as you can understand from rather conflicting messages, the Georgian troops managed to capture the dominant heights and they, in full accordance with Soviet military science, conduct a massive shelling, suppressing organized resistance. If we keep in mind that about 13 hours have passed since the start of the operation, it is possible that the pace of the offensive has slowed down. But even if the Georgian troops manage to establish control of the capital of South Ossetia, it is obvious that Tbilisi has too little forces for occupation. The Americans taught Georgians to win the battlefield, and then the troops to withdraw (the United States violated this rule in Iraq, and the consequences were not slow to affect). I repeat, even in case of victory, Georgia will find a long partisan war.

I must say that Saakashvili managed to provide himself with serious international support. I am not at all sure that the Americans gave the go -ahead at the beginning of large -scale military operations. Another conflict, the outcome of which is not obvious, does not need Washington at all. But now that the fighting is in full swing, the United States is doomed to support Tbilisi. Otherwise, the administration would have to fight off the accusations that she had prepared an aggressor for several years.

I must say that the adventure Saakashvili convincingly demonstrated the degree of efficiency of Russian foreign and military policy. The conflict grew over a few months. There was more than enough time to develop clear plans for the invasion. Moreover, it seemed that such plans exist. The large-scale maneuvers of the troops of the North Caucasian Military District have just ended. As a result, it turned out that either no plans exist at all, or there was no person who would take responsibility. If it was necessary to use military force, then only when the Georgian army was just starting an operation. Agree, it is one thing when the Russian military protect Tskhinvali. And quite another - when 12 hours after the start of the conflict, some unidentified aircraft bombed Georgian cities. As for the peacekeepers, they, without an order, turned into a target for the Georgian army. In any case, Saakashvili would have accused Russia of aggression, but the time for an effective military operation has been lost.

The Russian Higher power looked especially strange in this situation. Now it is clear how reasonable the distribution of Russian passports was to residents of South Ossetia. But, whatever one may say, our citizens are now being killed there. And in the conditions of the most acute over the past three years of crisis, the Russian Security Council was collected only by noon. The official point of view is still known only from the words of the deputy representative of the Foreign Ministry and the representative of Russia at the UN. The President of Russia, who seems to be in Samara, did not make any statements. Maybe he is waiting for the team from the prime minister, who is in Beijing and for some reason shares his thoughts about the situation not with the Russian people, but with the Chinese leaders. From the statement of the Ministry of Defense it follows that the military did not receive any intelligible teams. How can one not recall some critics who warned: a two -horned vertical of power will inevitably destroy the chain of the return of orders to the military from the political leadership.

A separate conversation about the so-called "volunteers"-Cossacks. In recent days, the leaders of this army made one statement more formidable than another. When it came to business, some most important chieftain found nothing better than calling the Cossacks under the age of 40 to register in the military enlistment offices and replenish the “Cossack” military units. An extremely good statement. On the one hand, in Tbilisi they can be sure that in fact there will be no “Cossack” volunteers. On the other hand, Georgia received a wonderful opportunity to interpret any resistance as aggression organized by the Russian army. I can’t help but recall how, a few months ago, at a meeting on the prospects for the development of the Cossacks, the representative of the Ministry of Defense, not without irritation, not without irritation, not without irritation that in the units declared “Cossacks”, the so -called register Cossacks there are no more than ... two percent.

They say that the war will write off everything. In fact, war is the maximum manifestation of a conflict that shows who is ready for what. The Georgian army showed that it has learned to use its limited military power and suppress half -willed formations. Saakashvili - that is ready for any bloodshed. And Russia - that its formidable statements are not at all.

17.30

It is clear that in the current situation, the Georgian troops had to capture Tskhinvali in the shortest possible time. And suddenly they announced the ceasefire until 19.00 and, according to some reports, even began the removal of military equipment from the South Ossetian capital. Formally - to give civilians the opportunity to leave the city. In fact - because the Russian armored vehicle was included in Tskhinvali, aimed to support the contingent of peacekeepers. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that fights are going on to Tskhinvali. One way or another, this means that our military finally received an order. The president also spoke out, who, almost a day after the beginning of the conflict, scolded Georgia and even promised to punish the guilty. However, this happened no earlier than Prime Minister Vladimir Putin talked with George Bush, explaining that the Russian authorities will not be able to restrain volunteers who are eager to fight in South Ossetia.

It seems that Blitzkrieg Saakashvili failed, which would not prevent him from saying that the victory was close, but the insidious Russian aggressor prevented. Now Tbilisi will concentrate on representing a victim.