The second went!

Yes, sir, Kasyanov swung-and let the cobblestone into the window, only spray in all directions. What the hell! Such a solid gentleman is such a revolutionary act.

The second went. But the first, Khodorkovsky, sits. How did Kasyanov decided to go to the same Vladimir?

Why the second, why on the same? After all, there are a lot of oppositionists: the whole committee of the 2008 (a member of the committee Vladimir Ryzhkov hastened to publicly grind in response to Kasyanov’s performance-the rating, it turns out, the ex-prime minister is small, close to zero), there is Yavalinsky, but there are few more. Why do I highlight only Khodorkovsky and Kasyanov?

It is clear why. Because - with all their deep dissimilarity - these are heavyweights. These are at least potentially serious competitors for Putin. It is clear that neither Ryzhkov, nor Yavlinsky, nor Nemtsov, nor Khakamad (not to mention Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky and Limonov) are not such competitors and, most likely, cannot appear.

The richest man in Russia, who created the largest private concern in the country and the ex-prime minister, in which, as everyone now understands, the development of the country was much more successful than after its resignation. Yes, this is serious. Therefore, these are serious state criminals.

It is known that in the Russian Federation (as before in the USSR, even earlier - in the Russian Empire) there is only one state crime: an attempt on power. And there is no need that the current constitution directly requires a regular change in power, direct, equal and secret elections of the president. Who thinks under the pretext of the Constitution to seriously encroach on the power of the president, that impostor, rebel and thief, his delightful speeches, to his hook, and to tear his nostrils in a robbery ... Of course, you can’t literally do this with the new Russian impostors, but the main instinct of power is all the same, medieval (by the way, it was in full of Yeltsin). The sacred, which means, is eternal and unchanged. And if it changes, then it is changing, that is, it changes itself. Any attempt to change the highest power from the side, from below there is a conspiracy and a rebellion under the guise of elections. If you take out this cornerstone instinct, the Russian government will become democratic - and the authorities themselves believe that it will fall apart in this case ... together with Russia.

Elections? Who to choose? Tsar?! This is the king chooses - he chooses what kind of chillege Ivashka will play along with him in the next election, which guard Zhirinovsky will become his partner this time. This is fine. Ivan Rybkin, floundering in the waters of the Dnieper, is also tolerant. But the real rival is impossible.

Therefore, when Khodorkovsky - no, did not put up to the presidency, where is there! - He just clearly showed that he was a real, that is, a strong opponent of power, then he, in full accordance with the Russian political tradition, ended up where he ended up. So it will be with anyone who encroach.

And now - another encroach.

Kasyanov’s calculation is accurate - so because for him worse. Yes, Putin "took out". Against the background of all endless defeats, his rating rests on the main, supporting support - on the fact that "there is no one else." And as soon as the competitor - a serious, not funny competitor - will appear, he will pierce the balloon of power, the soap bubble of this rating will pierce. They will not vote for a serious opponent, but against Putin. On-do-lo. People are like a child. Naive, trusting and infinitely cruel. When he was tired, when he was suddenly tired of it - then everything, write disappeared.

So, Kasyanov calculated correctly. He doesn’t need to do anything. Just stand in a prominent place, with its heroic figure and a sleek face and wait for the authorities to fall at the feet when the fragments of the showcase themselves collapse.

But Kasyanov cannot help but understand that Putin sees all this well too. And, therefore, he will be forced to deal with him. Well, Kasyanov - a mosajist? In prison, or what, does it want?

Mystery.

But let's reason. We will proceed from the fact that a) Kasyanov understands how he is dangerous for the authorities, b) understands that the authorities understand this, and c) is not at all Alexander Matrosov or even V.I. Novodvorskaya. He does not have that mania of greatness, which, it seems, ruined Khodorkovsky. More precisely, on the contrary, Khodorkovsky is facing his eyes with an eternal warning.

There may be two conclusions.

First. Kasyanov acts on the go -ahead of the Kremlin, which everyone wrote about. I don't believe. Why Kremlin Kasyanov? Even if Putin decided to leave in 2008, he will not choose Kasyanov to his successors, that's for sure. A pity, very sorry. If Putin chose Kasyanov’s successors (hell with her, with democracy!), It would be a smooth transition of the authorities to a sane, pro -Western, reasonable policy. Which is better?

Second. Kasyanov has such a roof that he is not afraid of Putin. Father, what kind of roof is this? The Americans gave guarantees? So, after all, the Americans are busy for Khodorskovsky - so what? What, son, did your Lyahs help you? Who else could give a guarantee? Pope? Or OSCE, NATO, UN, EU, Nobel Committee? You can find a lot of roofs ... One trouble: who believes in them, that means that the roof itself rides. And Kasyanov’s head is all right.

Third. The most strange, but logically the only possible. Knowing the Kremlin morals well, Kasyanov is absolutely firmly convinced that with him - unlike Khodorkovsky - they would not dare to do anything.

Why is it?

Because Khodorkovsky is an oligarch, and Kasyanov is an ex-prime minister. Because Khodorkovsky is a Jew, and Kasyanov is Russian. Because Khodorkovsky did not act publicly, as a politician, and Kasyanov performed.

Yes, for all these reasons, the arrest of Kasyanov (for example, for non -payment of taxes or bribes, etc.) would have received much less support in Russia and would cause a much more scandal in the West: it would be a clear, purely political reprisal, reprisal against the opponent.

So what? Is it to decency, when it comes to power?

And here, it seems to me, the last and most important factor can enter into business. Putin is not the same. When a year and a half ago he decided the fate of Khodorkovsky, he had much more a supply of moral forces. A wild story with Yukos, all this horror endlessly, an endless chain of failures in all azimouth, a fall in popularity, a tunnel without a clearance into which power entered ... Putin is not the same. He will not risk it. He will not dare to burn the ships, having dealt with the political opponent, will not dare to transfer himself to Lukashenko.

Putin will yield. It will allow a serious opponent. So, according to the rules of this semi -authoritarian regime, he will doom himself to a loss. Two options are possible here: “Yushchenko-2” (change of power through the revolution) or “Putin-2” (change of power by agreement). It does not matter that today Kasyanov is not a candidate of power. Closer to the case will be agreed.

Such, I think, is Kasyanov’s calculation. And, given that he put on a con, this should not be a calculation even, but confidence. Now it remains to understand if Kasyanov is mistaken.

However, maybe I am rudely mistaken, thus imagining his logic?