Translated material
Gudbay, dollar-2
In the economy
Gudbay, dollar-2
April 7, 2006. Maxim Blanc
Last Tuesday, the Renaissance Capital investment group released an analytical report, where, among other things, the imminent and very significant collapse of the dollar in the Russian foreign exchange market is predicted. “We expect a one-time strengthening of the ruble exchange rate to 26-26.5 rubles per dollar in April-May or October-November 2006,” the document says.
The fact that this year will be far from the best for the dollar in Russia, we have already written at the end of the past and beginning of this year . In fairness, it should be noted that the Renaissance analyst Alexei Moiseev, who prepared the report, indicated the exact numbers and terms. Although he relied at the same time on the same arguments: “The Russian president set three macroeconomic goals: an increase in budget expenditures, the fight against inflation and maintaining a low ruble course. It is impossible to do all three goals at the same time, at least one will have to sacrifice. ” It is clear that these will not be state -owned. It was not for that that Dmitry Medvedev came up with national projects in order to easily subject them to sequestration. Inflation, the president has recently paid exaggerated attention recently: after all, its consequences feel on himself all, without exception, the population, and especially the poorest. And next year, if anyone does not remember, parliamentary elections. So the only way out is to sacrifice the course.
There is one controversial moment in Moiseev’s report - the assumption that the Central Bank will go to a sharp one -time reduction in the course at the moment when no one will expect it, for example, during the May holidays. Otherwise, with a smooth reduction in the course, the population and speculators, according to the author, rush to get rid of dollars, which can cause panic in the market. In my opinion, a one-time collapse of the dollar for a ruble, a half, with a much greater degree of probability will cause panic among large participants in the foreign exchange market. And there is nothing to talk about the population. So the only thing that the Central Bank can achieve such a measure is the universal failure to do to work on the first post holiday day in connection with the need to find an exchange point where there were still rubles and defend a many -hour queue in it. And all efforts to reduce the money supply will go under the tail, because by this day the Central Bank will have to print a hundred or two billions of new crispy rubles to buy dollars for everyone from everyone. Otherwise, it will be possible not to talk about 26, but rather about 16 rubles per dollar. Therefore, most likely, the Central Bank will move in small steps, limiting it, when possible, buying oil and periodically reminding itself of interventions in its support. This was indirectly confirmed by the head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, who said that in the coming months the nominal effective course of the ruble will not be significantly strengthened.
However, it will not work to avoid serious stabilization of the ruble course. It is interesting that on the same day when the analytical report “Renaissance of Capital”, Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, speaking at the annual conference of the Higher School of Economics, was released, entrusted the full responsibility for the rate of inflation on the Central Bank: “What seemed always understandable to me today has to prove it again 100% is a monetary character. Therefore, in all countries of the world, the central banks of these countries, independent of governments and responsible for the volume of money supply in the economy, are responsible for inflation. ” He did not disregard the ruble: “The Central Bank of Russia, if it is strictly set to the target, may also provide an inflation target in this year and next year, and in 2009 inflation will be 3-4%. But accordingly, the course will be changed. ”
So far, however, this is nothing more than theoretical reasoning within the framework of the discussion that flashed in the government and expert community, which the Minister of Finance said so directly. Herman Gref who replaced him on the rostrum very unequivocally spoke out against the “fetishization” of the theme of the fight against inflation, which recently, in his opinion, has been taking place in the discussion of the prospects for the development of the economy. “Like any process, the economy does not like violence, and you do not need to rape it with parameters. Moreover, to proclaim two goals at the same time - doubling of GDP and a sharp reduction in inflation - in my opinion, is quite controversial. Our delights about reducing inflation are fraught with economic growth. ”
However, if you recall how less than a month ago the president pronounced the government for the fact that inflation in the first 2 months exceeded 4%, despite the fact that for the whole year it should not exceed 8.5%, it is easy to assume that neither “fetishization” nor “violence” cannot be avoided. Maxim Blanc
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