Ivanov is gaining glasses

How will the resignation of Sergei Ivanov from the post of Minister of Defense and his appointment with the first deputy prime minister in the race of potential successors will affect? Read the comments of Grigory Yavlinsky, Vladimir Ryzhkov, Nikita Belykh, Stanislav Belkovsky, Dmitry Oreshkin, Alexander Konovalov and Valentina Melnikova.

Vladimir Ryzhkov , leader of the Republican Party:

As for the resignation of Sergei Borisovich Ivanov, one can say only one thing: that in six years as a minister, he did not solve any of the main tasks that were set for him. He could not put forward the new military doctrine of Russia and, accordingly, could not offer an adequate military organization: the number and structure of the armed forces, the necessary technical means. It is not clear what military reform we need. Sergei Ivanov could not solve the last problem he recently took up - the creation of a separate department for the purchase of weapons to combat high prices and control the quality of the supplied weapons.

Ivanov probably tried, he was a good, honest person, but he did not solve any of the key tasks that stood as a minister.

Regarding the new purpose of Ivanov, I can only say one thing - this is a complete rollback from the concept of administrative reform. ETPA The concept was aimed at making ministers political figures, removing a superstructure over them in the form of deputy prime ministers. Yesterday's permutations actually returned us in the 90s: weak ministers and a bunch of deputy prime ministers with indefinite powers. This is the actual failure of administrative reform.

As for Mr. Serdyukov, I don’t know anything about him, like most Russians, so I don’t know if he will be able to solve these problems. Will he be able to determine the threat with the General Staff and develop a military doctrine? Will he be able to determine the structure, composition and number of armed forces adequate to these threats and carry out military reform? I don't know.

Grigory Yavlinsky , leader of the Yabloko party:

The permutation of this level is actually without explaining the causes, analysis and assessment of previous activities usually indicate intrigues and instability at the top of the authorities. In the authoritarian system, the personnel policy is always unpredictable and opaque. Its main motive is protective, protective tasks. The professional qualities and interests of the matter, as a rule, do not have any matter.

This is only the beginning. In the coming year, there will be a lot of similar events.

Nikita Belykh , Chairman of the Political Council of the ATP:

Ivanov’s resignation will not lead to any changes in the Ministry of Defense or in the army as a whole. Obviously, all this is an element of the “successor” operation, part of the competition between Medvedev and Ivanov, the most likely candidates.

Ivanov got rid of the prefix “Minister of Defense” and thereby the danger of discrediting due to scandals in the army - after all, the main attacks on Sergey Borisovich were precisely on this part.

Everything that has been done has nothing to do with increasing the effectiveness of the Ministry of Defense, but is a fairly natural element of the campaign to transfer power in March 2008.

Stanislav Belkovsky , Director of the Institute of National Strategy:

The resignation of Ivanov from the post of Minister of Defense is the last attempt by Vladimir Putin to take under personal control the financial flows of the military department, which Sergei Ivanov was not able to stay as a minister for 6 years and that caused Putin a certain irritation.

Serdyukov’s appointment is a worthy answer to all those who admired Putin's Munich speech, as well as those who sharply condemned her. It is clear that if the President of Russia thought about some geopolitical breakthroughs, the new level of development of the armed forces and the new military alliances, he would not appoint a human defense Minister, who was remembered by humanity with his work in a furniture store.

Serdyukov with young nails was closely connected with the St. Petersburg Tax Inspectorate #15, which was actually the largest racketeering tool on the city of St. Petersburg. Accordingly, in 2000, when Putin came to power, he became deputy head of the Ministry of Tax and Duties and was engaged in this post the same as in the tax inspectorate #15. In general, this is a person who knows how to pick out money from different cracks, on which they are shut up, look for the stagnacons and generally withdraw the hidden money to the light of God, this is the only meaning of the appointment of it by the Minister of Defense.

This means that Putin was finally disappointed in the idea of ​​doing something good with the Russian armed forces. Apparently, the process of decomposition and decay of the Russian army becomes irreversible. It is quite obvious that with the absolute unpopularity of Ivanov in the army and against the backdrop of the complete failure of his undertakings in the Armed Forces, the post of Minister of Defense turns for one of Putin’s best friends into a heavy burden, and not at all in a platform for political elevation.

Ivanov now will have much more chances to report on successes and much less likely to encounter unpleasant stories that occur in the army every day. It is clear that Putin untied Ivanov's hands to continue the political career.

However, this appointment does not mean at all that Ivanov becomes a priority candidate for successors. The battle of the successors by and large only begins, and its results will become understandable no earlier than six months later. Here everything will depend not only on the correlation of the forces of the successors, but also on the will of Vladimir Putin, which will make it possible to commit for succession to everyone, but there will be no tough bet.

Yesterday is a relative weakening of Dmitry Medvedev and those people, clans and forces that support him. Now Medvedev is not an exclusive first deputy prime minister, who is about to throw Mikhail Fradkov, and an official who is equal to Sergey Ivanov’s rank and is one of the deputy prime minister. The hopes of the patrons of Dmitry Medvedev that Fradkov and Medvedev are about to be proclaimed an official successor are about to be more ghostly.

Mikhail Fradkov won from yesterday's permutations more likely. Firstly, Medvedev no longer breathes in the back, in any case, to the extent that he breathed before. Secondly, Fradkov managed to bite another piece from the powers of Herman Gref, hated by the Minister of Economic Development. Due to the strengthening of Sergei Naryshkin, part of the functions of the MECT will be transferred to the direct control of the prime minister.

Dmitry Oreshkin , political scientist:

Ivanov’s appointment to the post of Deputy Prime Minister can be safely called an increase in the group of security forces in the Kremlin politics. It follows the strengthening of the positions of Viktor Ivanov, who was appointed head of the anti -corruption committee, which gave him weight - now he can instantly withdraw any official from the political game.

Apparently, some internal frictions in the clan of security forces are overcome. Earlier, the Ivanov group competed with the Sechin group, but now the security forces were consolidated and took a step forward. We see a lot of manifestations of this: firstly, the purpose of Ivanov; Secondly, Putin's Munich’s speech, a kind of manifesto of a power approach; Thirdly, someone in the presidential environment managed to very contribute to the construction of a new iron curtain between Russia and the rest of the world. A course was proclaimed to create an isolated society with defense consciousness. This was facilitated by the murder of Litvinenko, the murder of the political and catastrophic fall in Russian prestige in international affairs. All this leads to the fact that Russia is made more isolated, more irritated to the outside world, while the outside world is made more irritated. There are completely obvious failures in foreign policy, in particular, in the CIS space.

The power block felt that if the development of the economy in normal mode will go further, then the security forces would simply be unnecessary, because it turns out that there is no Proka from them. From the strength statements about the sphere of influence and restoration of the state, no return is obtained. In fact, the power is reduced, the sphere of influence is reduced and it turns out that Russia is uncompetitive.

The only way to save the sovereign values ​​is to transfer us to a more closed regime of existence, when enemies around and when all your failures can be written off to enemies. Accordingly, hands are untied for any power actions within the country - they say, there is nothing to lose, all the same, the West will no longer think about us worse than now he thinks now. With the elections and with independent media, you can create anything.

These simply hysterical protective action of the security forces in conditions where to defend is to advance. They began a desperate offensive, because any prolonged competition is lost to them. Accordingly, it is necessary to develop the situation, go into a counterattack, and if for this you need to ruin the economy, then no problems.

Alexander Konovalov , President of the Institute of Strategic Assessments and Analysis:

This is a salvo of heavy artillery in the election struggle. On the one hand, Ivanov’s appointment is the first deputy prime minister as an increase. But on the other hand, the Deputy Prime Minister is formally subordinate to the prime minister, and the Minister of Defense submits directly to the president. Is it an increase or not? True, Medvedev had a direct access to the president through national projects, since this is a presidential idea. But still, Fradkov tried from time to time to let him understand who is the owner in the house, although not very persistently, since Fradkov himself understands that he was decorative.

I have doubts about the fact that Ivanov was raised, since before he was a powerful power apparatus. The army is still a powerful tool, and the one who controls it is a very significant political figure in Russia. Now he was removed from the army, and I do not undertake to say whether it strengthened this weight or lower.

Ivanova was very warm by the president, said that he had done a lot for the army. As for the appointment of Serdyukov, Putin himself said that this person is very well versed in financial matters and would not give the military budget to be pulled out. We dreamed of a civilian Minister of War, and here we had a house. The Minister of Defense was a tax collector and furniture. It is clear that this person cannot participate in the compilation of a new military doctrine, he does not understand anything about military construction, he did not face political problems at all. He really collects taxes well. He helped Putin to put Khodorkovsky, rolling him $ 7 billion with a tax arrears. For Putin, a person is useful. But the tax collector is unlikely to be a popular figure among the people.

I don’t know what Serdyukov will have a role as the Minister of Defense. If his task is to prevent the military budget, then, probably, he will cope with it, and if it is required to make a capable army that meets modern threats, then he is completely out of business.

Valentina Melnikova , member of the Public Council under the Minister of Defense, head of the Union of Committee of the Soldiers' Mothers of Russia:

The movement of Sergei Ivanov is a political step: during the period of the presidential race, his person was put on large budget funds. As for Serdyukov, I think this is a good decision by Putin. The former head of the tax service knows perfectly all the loopholes where budget funds can flow, where you can steal. And this, probably, today is one of the most important tasks - to save, to send those huge funds to business that are invested in defense. Well, and our problems, human rights, work directly with people will be engaged in the main management of the Ministry of Defense for educational work. Like before. It seems to me that the new Minister of Defense is unlikely to be of interest outside his main task - to save state funds allocated for defense.