Translated material
Ukrainian tandem
According to the results of the elections in Ukraine, the Czechs still
He was recognized as the great Ukrainian poet.
(Anecdote from the Internet)
The main surprise of the Ukrainian elections was the minimum gap between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. This excludes the situation in which the winner receives everything. The country is again separated by almost two, as in 2004. In many ways, such an outcome of the voting “merit” of the headquarters of Yanukovych, who donated the “president of all Ukrainians” for the sake of mobilizing the pro -Russian electorate in the east of the country.
Tymoshenko threatened the organization of the Maidan, but the EU recognized the elections legitimate, and without the support of Europeans, it will not work to turn the situation in their favor on the 2004 model. Tymoshenko’s task to strengthen his negotiation positions by court claims and rallies of his supporters. Its main achievement is that Tymoshenko, as a result of the elections, became the sole “mistress of the western regions of Ukraine. The “ostrich” position of Tigipko, who took her “ostrich” position, is now not a competitor and lost the chances of taking the prime minister’s chair. In Ukraine, there are again two political monopolists - Yanukovych (in the east) and Tymoshenko (in the west).
The main Messid Yanukovych is political stability. In this sense, Yanukovych is the Ukrainian Putin, the “leader-assuer”. However, to achieve stability, it is necessary to overcome the split of the country. This is possible only in one case: if Tymoshenko remains the prime minister under President Yanukovych. The design of the Ukrainian “tandem” is formed, which will take into account the interests of both the West and East of Ukraine.
The “tandemocracy” regime is also beneficial to Ukrainian elites. Excessive strengthening of any center of power will automatically lead to squeezing from the policy of low resource political groups. And in the presence of two centers of power, the latter have opportunities for political maneuver.
Tandem Yanukovych-Timoshenko will be able to take a more flexible position in negotiations with the Russian side on a number of issues, primarily in the gas field. Yanukovych will declare the ideas of creating a gas consortium, Tymoshenko will block them. Under these conditions, the negotiation positions of Ukraine will be stronger, and Moscow will have to make certain concessions.
The Ukrainian tandem, as well as the Russian one, will be a transitional form of power. This is a way to stabilize the situation during the acute economic crisis and preserve the elite balance. To the next presidential election, Tandem will inevitably break up.
Roles in the Ukrainian Tandem will be a mirror display of the Russian analogue. If in Russia President Medvedev acts with the ideas of modernization and liberalization, personifying a pro -Western political trend, and Prime Minister Putin symbolizes the idea of stability, a “special path” and isolation from the outside world, then in Ukraine the situation will be the opposite. Prime Minister Tymoshenko will act as a modernizer and Europeanizer of Ukraine, while Yanukovych will become a preacher of stability and improved life due to rapprochement with Russia without any modernization.
Thus, the situation in Ukraine is a reflection of intra -Russian contradictions. The problem of Russia is that the choice of the country's development path was too tight. Neo -imperialists pull the country in one direction, modernizers in the other. This bifurcation is broadcast into countries that are closely connected with Russia culturally and economically. This applies to Ukraine to the greatest extent. Until the bifurcation in Russia itself has been overcome, Ukraine will not be able to overcome the internal split.
Closer to 2012, the design of the Tandem in Russia will inevitably be dismantled. The 2012 elections will be the elections between the Europeanization project of Russia and the project of further twisting of the nuts in the style of the Special Way. Ukraine is a kind of experienced landfill for Russian political technologies. Various scenarios that can be used in Russia itself are worked out here.
In any case, the relationship between political processes in Russia and Ukraine remains very close. At this stage, the creation of a Ukrainian “tandem” is the most likely scenario. However, with the approach of elections in Russia, the situation in Ukraine can also change dramatically. But this is already a matter of the future.
Photos of RIA Novosti