Crimean choice of Putin

The sixth of March, the Crimea parliament with a unanimous decision turned the already not deprived of the attention of the peninsula into an indisputable primadonna on the geopolitical stage. The decision of the people's chosen ones on the entry of autonomy into Russia, which the referendum must “fix”, so no matter what it means, sounds strictly and unambiguously, especially against the background of several confused statements of Kyiv and Brussels. Everyone with increasing anxiety turned his eyes to Moscow - the last important hero of this drama - and froze in anticipation. The faithful to himself Vladimir Putin limited himself to a meeting with members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the results of which were not announced. An awkward silence, apparently, will last until March 16.

An awkwardness is also connected with the fact that few have doubts about who exactly directed the appeal of parliamentarians. Unanimous voting already suggests at least procedural violations. And if you recall that lovers of the Russian camouflage from the “Self -Defense Forces of the Russian -speaking population of Crimea” are still holding a defense in the building where this decision was made, then a completely unsightly picture is formed. The date of the fixative referendum does not improve the situation - even discarding the usual electoral magic in the post -Soviet space, we have to admit: the most honest team in the world is simply not able to organize normal will in the region with a population of almost 2 million people in 10 days. In general, special intrigue from the Crimea is not yet visible.

But the Kremlin, who did not speak out about whether it will take a prodigal peninsula or leave it alone with the “Bender”, will be borne the secret of whether he does not speak out of his wing. And while many in Russia have already gloomily noted the success of another “Putin Plan” and, accordingly, the next victory of Russia, the confidence that this summer it would be possible to go without a passport to Yalta, it seems premature. If we discard the diplomatic etiquette, then after a referendum, at which 90 percent will vote for joining Russia, if not all 146, a simple question will faced Putin: take or not take it. But the answer to him seems obvious only if you do not take into account the question number two - and then what?

Having joined the Crimea to Russia, the Supreme Commander, undoubtedly, will receive a short -term outbreak of patriotism - as well as a huge headache. The small subsidized region itself is not of great interest, but the consequences of such a brilliant conquest can be the most unpleasant. Firstly, the notorious sanctions of the West-no matter how modest they are-this is not a reason for joy. And if the United States and the EU finally get tired of all this circus, then their actions can be frankly disastrous for the head of state, which can be seen by the example of Iran. Secondly, it is already obvious how the precedent of such a “protection” is nervous Kazakhstan-in essence, the only country that is our ally and at the same time retains some kind of independence. The fears that the floating museum complex occupying the Sevastopol Bay will be expelled from there by the new authorities of Ukraine also do not look justified-Kyiv is now in the wrong economic situation to terminate any agreements. And the most unpleasant thing - like any drug, aggressive patriotism implies not only short -term euphoria, but also extremely unpleasant consequences, among the people known as the “revenge”. Visualized citizens, already accustomed to their role of defenders of the Slavs, will be forced to return to boring work, hopeless corruption, terrible housing and communal services and crawling like a glacier, which, albeit a little, but will accelerate the need to throw a billion or two in the Crimea per year. Of course, the Western response will allow some time to maintain people in a state of the necessary tension, but this way is risky: God forbid, someone will really try to do something. And the second time, the focus with the protection of the population will not pass - indeed, do not enter the troops into the Baltic states or Transnistria? With the seeming similarity, these countries are still full-fledged EU members, and here one diagnosis will not work. Yes, and the political situation there, let's say frankly than in Ukraine.

And what will happen in case of refusal? At first glance, nothing good: the general disappointment, discontent and accusation of Putin of weakness. But those who believe that our propaganda seemed to make Vladimir Vladimirovich hostage of patriotic hysteria, underestimates her, propaganda, effectiveness, as well as the flexibility of human thinking. It is enough to look at the abundance of not just lies, but the contradictions are how Russian media and politicians depict what is happening in Ukraine to understand that memory in this case is not the main thing, the main thing is to scream loudly. And they can do it. Like a romantic hero who retreated in front of a despicable crowd, but not broken by it, Putin recognizes the collective pressure of the world community and hand over, not forgetting to create the necessary hype around the fact that the US and the EU actually infringe on people's right to self -determination. After that, a parade of petitions, marches in support, marches against, negotiations, mutual insults and all that Kiselev and to be able to make a show that can distract the people from unsightly reality will begin.

The most curious in this scenario is that everyone will be satisfied. Ukraine will retain its territorial integrity, and the new government will not begin its career with the country's largest foreign policy defeat in its entire recent history. Russia will receive an endless source, a real fountain of new information reasons-every beaten dog in the Crimea, not to mention something more serious, will be presented as the failure of the Ukrainian authorities and the collapse of European diplomacy. The European Union will be able to return to the natural environment of sluggish correct negotiations, inspections and the search for compromises, putting itself out by the winner, which 99% of Russian society will never recognize. China will make sure that Russia is still true to the principle of “territorial integrity at all costs” and create a precedent, which the restless Tibetans can then grab, do not intend to seize.

Crimean citizens, real and virtual, voting for the attachment of the peninsula to Russia, but you and I well know how important to Vladimir Vladimirovich the opinion of the Russian -speaking population of Ukraine, Russia, the USA or New Guinea will be dissatisfied. If they completely get wound up, it will always be possible to playfully hint that “maybe all the same”, once again heating the situation, then again to drop off steam, declaring Russia's commitment to international agreements. In many ways, this approach recalls that on a smaller scale he tried to crank up in winter in Kyiv Viktor Yanukovych, using the stolen and arrested Supporters of the Maidan as a resource for trading and turning the return “to their original positions” into the desired, positive result. Such tactics, which, in essence, is well familiar to Vladimir Putin, who often and skillfully uses that he certainly never let him down and will not go anywhere from him - the reputation of an evil, vengeful and slightly crazy tyrant, with which peaceful coexistence is already a victory.


Photo by ITAR-TASS / Anatoly Maltsev / Pool