Workarounds

In an interview with the online Ukrainian newspaper "ProUA", Roman Manekin, head of the Ukraine department of the Institute of CIS Countries (Moscow), recently noted: “A group of intellectuals, administrators, businessmen and politicians are now being formed around Vladimir Putin, who will work in the “Ukrainian direction.” True, now "The president has many other problems - the fight against oligarchs, the constitutional process... However, when these problems are resolved, Ukraine is next in line."

Everything goes according to plan. The Russian authorities have been thoroughly engaged in extorting a debt of $3.5 billion from their CIS neighbor for energy resources: for the second time in the last six months, high-ranking delegations spent two weeks scurrying from Moscow to Kiev and back, officials spent many hours at the negotiating table. Out of desperation (there was nothing to pay with), Ukraine involved Poland and Turkmenistan in resolving its debt problems. The situation escalated, and the matter almost reached an international conflict: Poland opposed the construction on its territory of an alternative pipeline bypassing Ukraine. Russia responded that it could bypass both Ukraine and Poland.

So, instead of the ceremonial signing of various intergovernmental agreements on new gas payment schemes, instead of the visits of Mikhail Kasyanov, Viktor Khristenko and Rem Vyakhirev to Kiev scheduled for last week for regular negotiations, a small group of Russian government experts went there. And no comments from either the Russian or Ukrainian sides.

Short leash
Until recently, attempts to force Ukraine to repay its debts for energy resources ended in failure. Of the 3.5 billion dollars, Ukraine recognized only 1.4 billion, and after the winter negotiations repaid only 285 million dollars, and even then not in real money, but in old strategic bombers and cruise missiles. Food and goods were supposed to be received for the remaining amount - but the prices turned out to be unacceptable to the Russian side, and most of the debt remained outstanding.

It must be said that endless promises without any consequences began to fairly irritate the Russian authorities. Moreover, the difficult economic situation of the neighbor threatens to lead to an increase this winter in the so-called unauthorized withdrawal or simply theft and re-export of Russian gas. It should be noted that Russia does not sell gas to Ukraine. It only pays it annually 30 billion cubic meters of gas for transit to Europe and Turkey, where 119 billion cubic meters go - 96% of all Russian gas exports. Moreover, over the past six months, 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas disappeared in an unknown direction, causing Russia a loss of $600 million.

It was decided long ago how to combat theft - to export gas, bypassing the territory of Ukraine. And if earlier things were limited to threats, now Russia has begun to implement the plan: it has begun to build the Europe-Yamal gas pipeline at an accelerated pace, bypassing Ukraine through Belarus and Poland.

Apparently, the Ukrainian side, which had gotten away with theft for a long time, was seriously scared. “Ukraine today cannot stop this process, and therefore the Ukrainian government is developing a strategy on how we should behave when Russia does not transport gas through the territory of Ukraine,” said Deputy Prime Minister for the Fuel and Energy Complex Yulia Tymoshenko. On July 20, at a meeting between Prime Ministers Viktor Yushchenko and Mikhail Kasyanov in Volynsky, near Moscow, another debt repayment scheme was invented: prices for Russian gas increased to the European average, however, Russia demanded to pay in cash only about a third of the cost of a thousand cubic meters of gas, somewhere around $30 for each . What Ukraine is unable to pay should again have been issued in the form of a commodity loan under state guarantees.

“At the negotiations of the Ukrainian government delegation led by Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko in Moscow, such a price for gas was declared that I don’t even dare to name it,” Yulia Tymoshenko later said with alarm, calling on Ukrainian enterprises to be prepared for higher energy prices . “We are dealing with a country that wants to sell its energy resources at world prices,” she said with visible resentment. True, what is the crime here and why Russia does not have the right to do this is not very clear.

The irritated reaction of the top leadership of Ukraine is apparently explained by the fact that it found itself in a deadlock situation through its own fault: it is possible to get out of the debt hole (and it will have to get out one way or another) only by giving Russia something more substantial than old weapons. Recently, Viktor Yushchenko has openly mentioned that Russia could become a co-owner of Ukrainian main pipelines and participate in the completion of local nuclear power plants. And not only. That is, we are essentially talking about this: either Ukraine will begin to pay for gas, or it will find itself in complete economic dependence on Russia, which will ensure its complete political loyalty to any Russian undertakings.

“If Ukraine does not demonstrate to Russia the ability to establish payments for energy resources in the near future, then it will be necessary to pay for energy debts with shares of the most liquid enterprises,” Maxim Karizhsky, director of the Ukrainian Agency for Humanitarian Technologies, comments on the situation in an interview with the Ukrainian online newspaper “ProUA.” “In this case, in A powerful Russian lobby will be formed in Ukraine, and it will likely have a decisive influence on Ukraine's foreign policy.If the economic interests of Russian companies and their Ukrainian partners do not continue to imply free access to Western capital in Ukraine, then for the next 50 years in the history of European Ukraine’s integration will be put to an end... Only decisive liberal reforms and a rejection of fairy tales about a socially oriented economy and a policy of deferred liberalism will allow avoiding such a scenario.”

Sharp turn
Realizing how close the threat of “circumventive” Russian maneuvers was to fruition, Ukraine tried to “break free” from its short leash. During a week-long pause in negotiations with Russia, she remembered Poland, for which in 1997 she became the second largest trading partner (Poland’s positive balance in trade with Ukraine was then $791 million; today trade turnover between the countries is estimated at $1 billion ). Polish Minister of Economy Janusz Steinhoff, who met with the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Fuel and Energy Sergei Ermilov, unexpectedly announced that Poland is against laying a “bypass” pipeline through its territory. “We do not want gas transit through Poland to harm the interests of Ukraine,” the minister said. Previously, his position was much softer, since participation in the construction of the pipeline is economically beneficial for Poland, however, only if Russia pays for it in foreign currency.

To such harsh statements, the Russian side responded that supplies of Russian gas ensure the energy security of Europe in the 21st century. As Viktor Khristenko put it, “there are several alternative directions for resolving this issue,” that “Europe consists not only of Poland, but also of Germany, Italy, and France.” The implication is obvious: European countries interested in stable supplies can put pressure on Poland, and in the worst case scenario, it can be bypassed both from the south and from the north - through Finland.

Instead of the planned visit to Kyiv, Viktor Khristenko had to fly to Smolensk on July 27 to sort things out with Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek. The Russian side's proposals to pay for the bypass pipeline with gas supplies were met very coldly: Poland has enough of the gas that Russia pays for transit through Polish territory via the Druzhba gas pipeline.

Meanwhile, Ukraine tried to consolidate its success by recruiting its supporters in the East. Yulia Tymoshenko, concerned about the possible loss of the annual 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, found a replacement in Turkmenistan. Fortunately, the amount of debt to our eastern neighbors turned out to be several times less than Russia’s billions in debt. In a record-breakingly short time, a visit to Turkmenbashi was organized, as a result of which the “fragile woman” (as her negotiating partner called her) managed to achieve great success. Not only did it delay the payment of the restructured government debt for Turkmen gas supplies in 1993-1994 - a third of the remaining $211 million will be paid before 2002, the rest is covered by goods and investments in the oil and gas sector of Turkmenistan (in addition, Ukraine will pay by the end of the year $27 million out of a $107 million debt for last year’s gas supplies to the state-owned Naftogaz of Ukraine company). Most importantly, Tymoshenko agreed to increase the supply of Turkmen gas from 20 to 50 billion cubic meters per year. The accommodating nature of Turkmenistan can be explained very simply: Georgia and Ukraine are the main consumers of Turkmen gas, although neither country has the cash to pay for it. If there had not been a problem with Russia, Ashgabat would hardly have gotten even these crumbs from Ukraine.

However, the success of Ukrainian negotiators negates the fact that there is currently no other way to export Turkmen gas other than through the pipeline system controlled by Russia. And then another sensation happened: Yulia Tymoshenko proposed the construction of a “bypass” pipeline for eastern gas, bypassing Russian territory. That is, this fantastically long pipeline must pass either through two seas, or through the Balkans and Turkey. At first glance, such statements seem like a complete gamble: the only source of financing for such an expensive, literally golden pipeline can only be international organizations or European companies interested in Russia having competitors. But Ukraine is building an oil pipeline from Odessa to the Druzhba oil pipeline for large Caspian oil, for which, according to unofficial information from Kommersant, it somehow managed to save 300 million dollars. And he's almost ready. The example is impressive.

Friendly hugs
The renowned negotiator Mikhail Kasyanov apparently observes with surprise the resourcefulness of his Ukrainian colleagues. Yes, Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko admits that he will have to pay. But he wants to accustom Russia to the idea that Ukraine will not pay with anything other than old bombers. It is possible, of course, to organize for Russia a concession of part of the gas transportation system of Ukraine, but at the same time “under Ukrainian ownership and Ukrainian management.” In general, there is only one conclusion: we haven’t reached an agreement yet.

And yet, Ukraine will not escape Russia’s friendly embrace. After all, if an agreement cannot be reached, the Russian authorities will, without any regrets, use the experience of turning off both electricity and gas, tested on Russian consumers, and then entire regions in Ukraine will find themselves de-energized and dehydrated. “In general, everything will be like in Georgia, where children born during the years of independence ask their parents what function the strange pieces of iron called “batteries” perform in their apartments. This is not our forecast. This is the forecast of the Ukrainian newspaper ProUA.