Translated material
Yes, we are Asians
Leonid Velekhov, Sergei Strokan
Vladimir Putin's first eastern tour implements the installation of a new concept of the Kremlin's foreign policy doctrine in Asia: "intensify participation"
Vladimir Putin's first eastern tour implements the installation of a new concept of the Kremlin's foreign policy doctrine in Asia: "intensify participation"
All sorts of rituals, reminiscent of the times of great friendship, occupied a large place in the program of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing (Photo: AP )
The new is not the well-forgotten old. In the early 90s, discussions about what the foreign policy of the new Russia should be often featured “two heads of an eagle,” one of which looks to the West, the other to the East.
Ten years later, Vladimir Putin again spoke about two, though not heads, but “wings” of Russian foreign policy. He expressed himself so elegantly in an interview with the Chinese Xinhua agency, emphasizing that the eastern “wing” is no less important for Russia than the western one.
And last week, the Russian leader tested the eastern wing in flight, flying over China, North Korea and Japan over the course of a week. The Asian tour, perhaps, was intended to answer the question: is there any reason, after the unfulfilled “golden Western dream” of the 90s, to fall into an eastern dream?
Dreams about the Celestial Empire
In Beijing, Putin and Jiang recalled the old Chinese saying that a close neighbor is better than a distant relative. However, relations between Russia and China, close neighbors, do not yet justify this popular wisdom.
More than three decades of confrontation after the death of Stalin, hundreds of bloody border skirmishes, billions literally buried in the ground - spent on strengthening the border: this is what the Russian-Chinese “close neighborhood” was like in the 60s - 80s. The eleven years that have passed since the normalization of relations in 1989 have so far brought a lot of empty and pompous rhetoric about “strategic partnership”, about the “strategic triangle Russia-China-India” (the idea of Yevgeny Primakov when he was Minister of Foreign Affairs) and few practical results . In 1996, when Yeltsin and Jiang declared a real honeymoon in Russian-Chinese relations - it was then that a document on a “strategic partnership aimed at the 21st century” was signed - the Russian president “promised” to increase trade turnover between the two countries by 2000 up to 20 billion dollars. Then, in 1996, it barely reached 7 billion. Now, in 2000, it fell to 5 billion.
Alas, China’s foreign trade turnover is insensitive to political rhetoric: Russia’s real share in Chinese foreign trade is barely one and a half percent. If Russian-Chinese trade turnover is 5 billion, then Chinese-American trade is 45 billion, and Chinese-Japanese trade is 65 billion. What kind of “strategic partners” are these with such sluggish indicators of interest in each other? It is also worth adding that the structure of Russian supplies to China has changed dramatically in recent years. Exports of machinery and equipment have decreased sharply; Russia mainly supplies raw materials to China - gas, oil, wood.
In Beijing last week, Putin and Jiang signed new declarations: a general, political one, which has already gone down in history under the name Beijing (it talks about readiness to jointly fight national separatism, international terrorism, religious extremism and international crime), and a more specific one - statement on missile defense, which emphasizes that the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty remains "the cornerstone of global strategic stability and international security."
These documents ideally reflect the speculative and rhetorical nature of the “strategic partnership” of the two countries. China supports Russia on the missile defense issue - Russia states that respect for the rights of individuals and national minorities in China (“the fight against national separatism and religious extremism”) is its “internal matter.” (That is, China may continue to persecute its Uyghurs, as well as Christians and Tibetan Lamaists). China never joins in criticizing the actions of the Russian federal government in Chechnya - Putin speaks out in Beijing against the independence of Taiwan. Etc.
Dreams of morning freshness
North Korea could become a real know-how for President Putin. The idea of visiting the DPRK, when expressed out loud a month and a half ago, sounded sensational. Of course: it seems that for the first time in post-Soviet history the Kremlin has decided to acquire its own “son of a bitch.” And what kind - as we know, none of the Western leaders have ever looked at Pyongyang.
But no real sensation came from the visit to Pyongyang. The month and a half that passed from the date of information about the trip to the trip itself is too long for modern politics. Or at least enough to carry out counterplay. And the Americans carried it out. In the twentieth of June they announced the easing of sanctions against the DPRK. These sanctions were introduced after the Korean War of 1950-1953 and have not been revised since then. According to experts, now they have not only been softened, but have been radically revised: only the ban on supplies of military and dual-use products to the DPRK remains.
Following the easing of sanctions, Washington decided to provide urgent food aid to the DPRK. Pyongyang responded by announcing that it was extending the moratorium on testing its missiles. And following this, Pyongyang and Washington announced their readiness to resume negotiations on the DPRK missile program that had stalled more than a year ago. On July 10-12, they held a new round of these negotiations in Kuala Lumpur.
To the unprecedented progress in North Korean-American relations, of course, we must add progress in inter-Korean relations (the summit of the leaders of South Korea and the DPRK in Pyongyang on June 10-14 was organized with the assistance of the United States and China, but without Russian participation).
What could the Russian president offer to the North Korean? Food aid? Unfortunately no. Mediation in relations with the West? Not anymore. According to some reports, the Kremlin wanted to use Pyongyang to, calling a spade a spade, blackmail the Americans on the issue of missile defense. After all, it is the North Korean missile program that Washington refers to when justifying the need to create a national missile defense system. During the diplomatic preparations for Putin’s visit, the Kremlin “strongly advised” the North Korean comrades to try to “exchange” the extension of the moratorium for the American abandonment of the national missile defense program. However, this did not work out: the Koreans extended the moratorium without any conditions, just as they decided to resume negotiations with Washington on their missile program.
Following negotiations with Kim Jong Il, the Russian leader said that North Korea is ready to abandon its missile program. On the condition that other countries will assist her in the “peaceful exploration of space” by providing their launch vehicles. Let us recall that the launch of a Korean missile in August 1998, which flew over Japan, prompted the United States to develop plans to modernize its missile defense systems. Given this, it was not difficult to imagine Washington’s reaction to Pyongyang’s latest initiative. A White House official said that if we are talking about transferring Western missile technology to Pyongyang, then this is out of the question. The United States is ready to consider another proposal - for North Korean satellites to be launched into space by rockets from other countries.
Communicating with Beijing residents who poured into the streets and boating in the city park could not but bring a lot of pleasure to the Russian president (Photo: AP )
Dreams of the rising sun
The trip to Okinawa - the culmination of the Russian president's Asian tour - attracted increased attention because, in fact, it was destined to become a prelude to Vladimir Putin's visit to Tokyo, scheduled for early September. With each new Kremlin leader, the Japanese side associates new hopes for a breakthrough in relations with Moscow - the signing of a peace treaty and the solution to the long-suffering territorial problem - the question of ownership of the Southern Kuril Islands. Will Putin be able to go further than Mikhail Gorbachev, who admitted the existence of the problem, and Boris Yeltsin, who declared his desire to make every effort to resolve it before the year 2000 - this is the main question that worries the Japanese.
Actually, Tokyo began monitoring the behavior of Yeltsin’s successor immediately after he became acting president. In February, the Asahi newspaper drew attention to the fact that, having taken the chair of the head of state, Putin had telephone conversations with Clinton, Schroeder, Chirac, Albright, and only on January 28 he called then Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi - almost a month after he contacted the Western leaders. So at first there were clearly no signs of any special interest in Japan on the part of the new Russian president.
However, as you know, if the mountain does not come to Mohammed, then Mohammed goes to the mountain. The successor of the suddenly deceased Obuchi, Yoshiro Mori, himself flew to Russia in April - as the host of the Okinawa summit, he had to visit all seven participating countries and chose St. Petersburg as the first point of his route. The Japanese emphasize that Mori has departed from the established practice when the host of the next G8 summit first flies to Washington. The first informal meeting of the leaders of the two countries took place in the “northern capital”. In Okinawa - the second.
Trying to maintain a high tempo in relations with Moscow, Yoshiro Mori is, in essence, fulfilling the political will of Keizo Obuchi. Informed Japanese sources say that Mori met with Obuchi several hours before his severe stroke, after which he fell into a coma and died without regaining consciousness. According to Mori, the last words of the late prime minister were about his desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia.
There is no doubt that extremely favorable conditions have developed today for a breakthrough in Russian-Japanese relations. The point is not only in the continuity of the pro-Russian line of Hashimoto - Obuchi - Mori. Prime Minister Mori now urgently needs to improve his rating, which has decreased due to a number of careless statements. A peace treaty with Moscow would be the best way to strengthen its own position.
However, there are limits to compromise. A peace treaty without any step forward in resolving the issue of the disputed islands makes no sense for Tokyo. Moreover, along with a group of high-ranking Japanese officials who are most favorably disposed towards Russia, there are also hardliners who say enough is enough, tired of waiting, Moscow is just stalling for time and doing nothing to prepare public opinion to solve the problem , which would suit us too. For now, the pro-Russian part of the Japanese establishment is gaining the upper hand, but one should not expect that this situation will continue unless Moscow proves its serious interest in solving the problem.
Is the judoka Putin ready to maintain the pace proposed to him by the rugby player Mori? There are no sufficient grounds to say so yet. Moreover, there is a feeling that the new Russian president has not yet found his line and is repeating the previous achievements of Russian diplomacy. On the eve of Okinawa, in an interview with Japanese and foreign journalists, Putin expressed the hope that “...those problems that today seem so complex and intractable will cease to be at the forefront of our relations. They will simply fade into the background, and, of course, will be resolved." It's clear what we're talking about. However, it is difficult to believe that the territorial problem will fade into the background and resolve itself. This can only be a dream.
Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il shook hands for the first time in their lives. The Russian president left an indelible impression from this meeting. The respected leader of the DPRK "unexpectedly...revealed himself as a modern person, knowledgeable about the situation in the world, educated, well informed" (Photo: AP )