It sways, it grows

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said on August 24 that the Russian economy was “growing.” The previously more pessimistic Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economy, Andrei Klepach, said the same thing: “In July, we can say with greater confidence that the general decline in the economy has ended and it is moving to a recovery phase.” However, neither one nor the other began to argue that the current growth is a stable phenomenon. Shuvalov added laconically: “We’ll see. We need to observe this growth for at least three months.” And Klepach emphasized that the recovery “is not sustainable and intense. In this sense, as they say in the West, the recession is over, but the crisis remains.” The optimism is explained by GDP growth: in June compared to July it amounted to 0.4%, in July compared to June - 0.5%. Kommersant notes that, according to economic theory, it takes two quarters to talk about sustainable growth. However, some growth in the second quarter of 2009 was noted in the Russian economy: the monitoring of the Ministry of Economy, cited by the newspaper, states that in the second quarter of 2009, the physical volume of gross domestic product increased by 7.5% compared to the first quarter. The economic recovery was facilitated by external demand, as well as the resumption of investment growth. Experts interviewed by the newspaper agree that the recession has reached the “beginning of the end.” Yaroslav Lisovolik from Deutsche Bank noted that although it is possible to talk about the beginning of economic recovery, “the situation with domestic demand remains quite bad.” Economists are counting on growth in budget spending and external demand. And Klepach does not exclude that at the beginning of autumn, growth in industry will stop, since “KAMAZ will stand, AvtoVAZ will stand, and the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric station will also have an impact.” In this case, the newspaper writes, there will be no need to talk about economic growth in the third quarter.