Exceptional circumstances

After the successful conclusion of the Russian-American summit and the Olympic triumph in Guatemala, some analysts suggested that the rapid deterioration of relations between Moscow and the West would at least slow down. And, as usual, they were wrong. Vladimir Putin, who has recently combined the functions of a bad and a good cop, has made another move. Citing certain “exceptional circumstances affecting the security of the Russian Federation,” the president signed a decree suspending participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). Thus, Putin fulfilled his threat made in his Address to the Federal Assembly. If we take into account that the CFE Treaty does not include a mechanism for “suspension” of the treaty, we can assume that Russia has begun the procedure for withdrawing from it.

Let me remind you that the main idea of ​​the treaty is to establish for the participating countries such levels of armaments that would not allow anyone to concentrate the amount of military equipment necessary for a large-scale offensive operation (that is, aggression). Initially, the CFE Treaty established restrictions at the block level - for NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries. However, just a few months after its signing in 1990, first the Warsaw Pact and then the Soviet Union collapsed. It was necessary to adapt the CFE Treaty to new realities. An adapted version of the CFE Treaty, which introduced restrictions not at the bloc level, but for each individual state, was approved in 1999. But it did not come into force, since NATO countries did not ratify it. They demand fulfillment of Russia's obligation to withdraw troops from Transnistria and Georgia. These obligations, in one case, are recorded in the Agreement on Adaptation of the CFE Treaty itself, in another - in the annexes to it.

And so, if we take statements about “exceptional circumstances” seriously, we can imagine that, in violation of the Treaty, enemy tank and aviation armadas are concentrating on the borders of the Fatherland. And in order to protect the country, the Kremlin has no choice but to abandon the CFE Treaty restrictions.

In fact, there is no deterioration in the situation compared to last year or the year before. Moscow sees the reluctance of NATO countries to ratify the adapted treaty as an attempt to gain military advantages. As a matter of fact, until recently this circumstance was the main pretext for expressing Russian discontent. However, we agree that this situation, which has existed for several years, can hardly be interpreted as an “emergency”. However, the certificate accompanying Putin’s decree cites other circumstances that are just as “extraordinary.” For example, “the evasion of Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic from formalizing changes in the composition of groups of states parties to the CFE Treaty in connection with the accession of these countries to NATO” and “the excess of “group” restrictions by the states parties to the CFE Treaty that have joined NATO CFE Treaty as a result of the expansion of the alliance,” as well as “the failure of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to fulfill the obligations adopted in Istanbul to adjust territorial ceiling levels.” It is easy to notice that in some cases Moscow appeals to the CFE Treaty in the 1990 version (where there are group limits), and in others to the annexes to the adapted CFE Treaty (the funny thing is that at the same time it manages to deny its own obligations formalized by the same annexes).

Russia also considers Washington's intention to station troops at bases in Bulgaria and Romania destabilizing and violating the CFE Treaty. At the same time, the Kremlin prefers to keep silent about the fact that we are talking about 2-3 thousand military personnel who will not be deployed permanently, but will remain there temporarily for several months a year. They also don’t like to remember that in recent years the Americans have been withdrawing their troops from Europe; the goal is to withdraw more than 40 thousand military personnel from the region, reducing the total number from 110 to less than 70 thousand. At the same time, the 1st Mechanized and 1st Infantry Divisions, once the striking fist of the American group in Europe, are being withdrawn from Germany. If Washington had planned to achieve a decisive military advantage over Russia, it is unlikely that it would have withdrawn these troops from Europe.

And the demands addressed to NATO to eliminate the superiority that the North Atlantic Alliance allegedly gained as a result of two waves of expansion do not seem too serious. NATO "newcomers" are carrying out radical military reforms, providing for radical reductions in both the size of the armed forces and the amount of military equipment. They intend to get rid of what Moscow sees as the potential for superiority as quickly as possible. Paradoxically, the hundreds of T-55 tanks that Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and other countries inherited from the Warsaw Pact era do not strengthen NATO, but weaken it. As long as this scrap metal is in service - and it is impossible to dispose of it and rearm the army overnight - national armies cannot meet NATO standards and are considered uncombat ready. Finally, the most interesting thing. NATO countries have much fewer weapons than are allowed by the adapted CFE Treaty, the implementation of which is demanded by Russia.

But let’s assume the impossible, namely: Putin seriously believes that over the past five years (after the second wave of NATO expansion took place) “extraordinary circumstances” have developed around Russia that pose a threat to its security. In this case, it is completely unclear why Russia followed the example of its NATO partners and does not even try to choose all the limits set for it. It has one and a half thousand tanks, two thousand armored vehicles, one and a half thousand aircraft and 400 helicopters less than allowed. The funny thing is that Moscow has no plans to choose its own limits. At one time, speaking in the Duma, Sergei Ivanov said that by 2015 the Armed Forces would equip “one squadron of long-range aviation with new and modernized models; 6 aviation and helicopter squadrons each; 7 tank and 13 motorized rifle battalions." That is, even in eight years, Russia is not going to choose limits. So is there a threat or not? And what is the point in demarches like suspending the implementation of the CFE Treaty?

As we see, even those who shout about it do not believe in the growing military threat. But the Kremlin prefers to frame its dissatisfaction with the West in terms of its intention to achieve military superiority. What extraordinary thing happened recently that made Putin remember his threats? Well, of course, London demonstrated that it does not intend to put up with Moscow’s refusal to extradite the alleged poisoner Andrei Lugovoi, and started talking about retaliatory measures. These pompous British do not want to put the brakes on the radioactive contamination of their capital in the name of good relations with Moscow. And all because they do not want the revival of Russia. Therefore, they are preparing aggression. So it’s time for Russia to leave the CFE Treaty.