Super Mega Bear – Medvedev

So, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was proclaimed the official heir to the throne. Well, as they say, “let’s see what kind of Sukhov you are.” To fight with Igor Sechin is not to appear in Gazprom’s videos. The candidacy, however, is a little unexpected - recently, most analysts agreed that the so-called liberal tower of the Kremlin (it is also called the “Gazprom party”) will release our second first vice – Sergei Ivanov – into this list. Apparently, Medvedev is not so sorry... However, our sweet couple of deputy prime ministers are not players at all in this game. Although they are important, they are only figures.

Can Medvedev be “eaten” before the second of March? It’s simple - it’s clear that the “security forces” are preparing a counter move. I do not rule out that in the coming days we will get another presidential candidate. Most likely, it will be Dmitry Medvedev’s current immediate superior, Viktor Zubkov. And the candidacy of the prime minister will undoubtedly be supported by the head of state (where should he go?). In the conditions of our political realities, such a seemingly completely democratic structure will inevitably lead to a severe political crisis with almost unpredictable consequences.

It is curious that the “liberals” nominated their candidate a week before the scheduled date - the United Russia congress is scheduled for December 17. That is, it seems that Vladislav Surkov decided to take the lead. Another option is also possible: the “liberals” learned that Igor Ivanovich was preparing a surprise for them in the coming days, and were forced to induce the birth of their successor. Now the only question is how viable the child will be. So far, nothing indicates that he will actually be able to get out: the main characteristic that all Kremlin analysts give Medvedev in private conversations is “extremely weak.” Which, of course, is another argument for Sechin’s party that this candidacy cannot be agreed to under any circumstances - other people are in charge, among whom Roman Abramovich, Alexander Voloshin and Vladislav Surkov are most often named.

Vladimir Putin’s position in these circumstances, at first glance, looks quite advantageous - here, dear fellow citizens, are two worthy candidates, choose who is more to your heart. But only until such time as completely indecent (and, God forbid, bloody) showdowns can be avoided behind the battlements.

In fact, I have no confidence that such a scenario can actually be avoided. Today the security forces are squeezed into a corner. Even if they nominate their successor, it is clear that they have no reason to bring the matter to elections. Igor Sechin is well aware that in behind-the-scenes intrigues and in informal contacts with regional elites it will be extremely difficult for him to outplay Vladislav Surkov. Consequently, on voting day Medvedev will have a serious advantage over any protege of the “siloviki”. This means that the latter must solve the problem before March 2. Having a rough idea of ​​the mentality of these people, it is not difficult to imagine what arsenal of means they will use.

In a word, sit back and get comfortable – everything is just beginning.