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"Abu-ali" against "seven"
Around Russia
"Abu-ali" against "seven"
June 19, 2013 Alexander Golts
Well, everything seems to be well ended. The “big eight”, sitting in the North Irish resort town of Loch Earn, accepted the joint statement of Syria. A day earlier, all this seemed highly unlikely. Because of the position of Vladimir Putin, who fiercely defended the Assad regime, the leaders of the seven industrialized states were ready to accept the application without the signature of the Russian president. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was extremely frank: "Let's just say: this is a" big seven "plus one. I do not think that we should deceive ourselves." His British colleague David Cameron also persuaded his colleagues to ignore Putin's position.
However, in the end, the desire to demonstrate unity prevailed. As usual, a document has appeared, all seven points of which are called to everything good against everything bad. To the cessation of hostilities, strengthening humanitarian assistance, conducting a peaceful conference, refusing to use chemical weapons, etc. All this in one form or another was said before. The only curious point is about the need for a transition period. At the same time, Assad is not mentioned. According to Western commentators, negotiation participants may well interpret this item in different ways. Western countries-as evidence that Moscow is even indirect, but agreed with the need to leave Assad. The Kremlin will insist: Assad is the most important participant in the negotiation process, its representatives must be included in the transition government. As a result, this declaration, which seems to have to demonstrate a single will of the largest states of the world, will rather demonstrate their inability to take effective measures to stop the bloody conflict.
It would seem that Vladimir Putin once again managed to impose his will to the Western "counter -partners" (in respect of which the console "Rear" is becoming more and more important). And he clearly celebrated his victory during the final press conference. On a blue eye he said that he did not feel alone during the summit. He crucified about the morality and legality of the supply of weapons to the Assad regime. And the fact that the fact of the use of the Syrian government forces of chemical weapons seems to him, Putin, rather doubtful.
But if this is a diplomatic victory, then it is clearly Pirrova. After all, it is easy to assume the further. Moscow, as if influencing Assad’s regime, will not be able to persuade him to any concessions. The other day, the English “Finenshl Times” with reference to the informed source reported that in the circle of close Assad (it is, according to the British Prime Minister, the mention of the transition period should impress - they say, it is time to run from the weapon) Putin, the nickname “Abu Ali”, adopted for residents of the territory, which is a chill of the current Syrian regime. The Syrian dictator will continue to deftly use Putin’s “Abu-Ali” in order to stay in power for as long as possible. 
At some point, I have no doubt, Western strategists will ask themselves the question: Russia is part of the solution to the problem or the problem itself. It is quite obvious that during the discussions, the fundamental difference in Putin’s philosophy and his Western “counter -partners” was revealed. The Russian leader sacredly believes in the ability of the great powers to impose his will to other peoples. The fact that so far the great powers can say about some Assade: he, of course, is a son of a bitch, but this is our son, and let him continue to spread rot his own people. From the point of view of Putin, Western states are trying to shift Assad in order to realize their geopolitical plans. In fact, other members of the “eights” now least of all would like to climb into internal conflicts in the Middle East. They were quite satisfied with authoritarian leaders like Gaddafi, Mubarak or Assad. But the public of eastern countries today cannot indifferently look at mass killings. Ten years ago, the facts of massacres somewhere in Africa could ignore, but now they can’t. And all these Obama, Camerons, Merkeli, even though they do not need to get involved in the Syrian problems with Iran, Hezbollah, etc.. Doomed to do this. Due to the existence of democracy, in which Putin V.V. He does not believe at all.
For a couple of months, Russian and American analysts have been arguing about what is more important in Russian-American relations, values or interests. And right now it turns out on the Syrian example: interests (at least Western countries) are not provided without protection of basic democratic values. Such a dialectic. And sooner or later, the Putin “counter -partners” will ask themselves a simple question: why, in fact, you need to spend strength and funds on the persuasion of the Kremlin, which will still deliberately ruin the whole thing.
Of course, the turn will not happen tomorrow. But now a completely obvious line has been identified: Putin Russia is not included and does not want to be among the democratic states. Therefore, sooner or later she is doomed to leave the “eight”. One of two: either to be the next “Abu Ali” for Assad, or a partner for Obama. Vladimir Putin, it seems, has already made a choice ...