Signs of the crisis

RBC publishes a great interview with the economic-geographer Natalya Zubarevich:

“ All the sanctions that are imposed on Russia are slowly starting to work, we already see this in the dynamics of production. The metallurgy was already a decline: in August, it was somewhere minus 6-8 %. Something can be redirected, they began to sell a lot to the Turks. But it is unrealistic to make up for the European market, this already affects the scale of production, manifests itself in budget revenues in metallurgical regions, and income tax falls. At least another six months it will continue.

The sanctions imposed on the forestry complex are most strongly beat in the northwest-it is fully oriented towards the European market. The region is already beginning to fail. In Siberia, more or less normal, because the Siberian forest complex is focused on China. The north-west is also trying to enter the Eastern training ground and will compensate for some part of the lost European market. However, you will have to drag products through the Trans -Siberian Railway, and these are huge logistics costs. < ... >

The parallel imports solve the issue of consumer goods, which, in general, turns out well. The assortment was a little dried, but there are no shortages. Do not forget that the solvent demand of the population is compressed. Therefore, even some compression of the volume of imports as a result balances with a decrease in demand for products. At the same time, the risks of secondary sanctions are minimal because many goods are not dual -purpose products. For suction and high -tech equipment and components, the problem remains. < ... >

Each crisis hits the regions differently. This one is unique in that it breaks our ties with the global world, creates a semi -auto -based existence. Not completely, of course, we are a raw material country and cannot live in Autarchy. This means that the regions that are most closely related to the global world will suffer stronger. < ... >

I am almost sure that this crisis inflicts the largest blow to the city educated or middle class, because they have no support (they did not ask, they themselves may) and the possibilities narrowed. Most likely, there will be no great unemployment, we were all mistaken in forecasts. No one knew that people would be massively left to the country. Demand is reduced - and the proposal of labor is reduced . ”