Around Russia

Crash test

October 13, 2011 Arkady Moshes

The conflict with Yulia Tymoshenko was dear to the two presidents of Ukraine. Leonid Kuchma, who planted her in a pre -trial detention center in 2001, became the target of protests within the country and the object of undisguised disgust in the West, as a result of which he had to bow to the Donetsk and Kremlin at the same time. Kuchma could not appoint the successor of his choice, left the presidency with a finally destroyed reputation, and the political model of the “elegant” manual administration created by him went into oblivion. Viktor Yushchenko, “on the advice of friends”, having fired Tymoshenko from the premier position in 2005, thereby undermined not only the prospect of success, apparently, nevertheless, not indifferent to him by the Orange Revolution. As we understand now, by this he brought his return to the bees after the first presidential term. With a level of support close to zero.

Knowing this, in the place of Viktor Yanukovych, one could reckon. But no. The desire to prove to all this “language” that there is no reception against scrap - stronger. Well, Yanukovych chose himself. At least, unlike his predecessors, he cannot say that he was not warned about the consequences.

Can he rely on the fact that the West, and first of all Europe, will swallow such a demonstrative spit on its position? It is unlikely. It is true that the announced return of Vladimir Putin to the formal leadership of Russian foreign policy increases the weight of geopolitical factors in the western decision -making process, especially since he already clearly declared his priorities - the creation of the Eurasian Union with the potential inclusion of Ukraine. But the truth is something else. Ukraine, as, by the way, is Belarus, in the West are still not considered lost in terms of future democracy in these countries. There are quite a lot of political capital and energy of individual politicians and entire countries that are not ready to abandon the struggle for the European - that is democratic - the future of Ukraine, and not just for its status of the Boofer between the West and Russia. If necessary, from the struggle against Yanukovych personally. There is no particular problem for the West. The empty chair of the Ukrainian president on the EU summits will beat this figure on the pride of this figure than by the attractiveness of the EU in the country led by him.

Apparently, Yanukovych did not understand the hidden truth that Ukraine is not Russia and that Jupiter is allowed that the bull was not allowed. Double standards? Undoubtedly. But if you take to play geopolitics, then you are pointless to appeal for conscience. First, get a place in the UN Security Council, become a critically important US partner in Afghanistan, well, or at least hit with a weapon somewhere. And if you can’t, then you should not hope for once, twenty years ago, which was considered the central place of Ukraine in the geostrategy of Eurasia. In 2008, the Bucharest Summit of NATO in 2008 showed that in the West there are enough politicians who calmly, without internal protest, listen to statements that there is no such state - Ukraine, but there is only a mixture of territories partially related to central Europe and partially donated by Russia.

Once again: the main trump card in the relations of Ukraine with the West today is what remains of pluralism and democracy in the country. Yanukovych wants to drop this trump card. But then he should not be offended if he still remains alone with Moscow.

With Moscow, just as indignant, albeit for another reason. It is known from the media outlets that have leaked to the media in the media that Yanukovych was allegedly said unequivocally: “You want to judge - judge, but not for that.” What, really did not find anything else? Well, then Tymoshenko is to be considered to be alerted by Tymoshenko of its two premierships. Or, again, they just spat on warnings. And now what to do to the Kremlin? Skip the blow by demonstrating to the whole world that they will now put in prison for cooperation with Moscow? Even the baby will not believe in such.

The next alignment is more likely to see. Yanukovych becomes unfortunate in Moscow. The phrases about the "anti -Russian subtext" of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs just do not rush. The leader of Ukraine has not yet become Yushchenko - the ambassador, apparently, will not respond, but loses value compared even with Lukashenko. He, at least, if he personally compel him to loyalty, the country's loyalty can also guarantee. And this one is not, the country is different. Therefore, the personal future of Mr. Yanukovych, and therefore the business of his friends, as they once said in Odessa, ceases to be interesting for the Russian leadership.

In whose hands, we recall, the “Tymoshenkovskaya” formula of price, gas contracts, which are not enough in the Stockholm Arbitration Court, and the close completion of the construction of the second branch of the northern stream, depriving Ukraine to a significant part of its transit revenues. You can’t get by with a gas consortium. Here you will have to surrender wholesale and retail.

But maybe Yanukovych simply had no other way out? Perhaps domestic political considerations forced him to do this, and not otherwise? In total, we, of course, do not know. But we know enough. On the one hand, the stay of Yulia Tymoshenko in the colony will not remove her from politics. It will be in the same way as before, to be present in the media space and - personally - on the leaflets of its block. And on the other hand, the popularity of BYUT is not growing, and without Tymoshenko, the prospect of the opposition to agree-about cooperation of equals-even increases a little. If only because frightened leaders of small groups can be rational to hold together. Let's see.

Commenting on Tymoshenko’s accusation, Yanukovych did not look like the self -confident barin that we used to see him in recent months. His words about the possibility of revising the case in the process of appeal indicate a fright, about finding a way out.

But I'm afraid it's too late. That he has already failed his crash test from Tymoshenko. He has only two opportunities left. One is to hand over everything to Moscow, hoping that he will be allowed to be guaranteed at least until the end of the presidential term. The second is to give in to the pressure of the West and release Tymoshenko. I do not presume to predict what the choice will be. Over the past two months, Yanukovych has proven his ability to be guided by emotions and desires, and not by reason or at least instincts. But, in any case, this will already be another president, whose independent time in politics has ended.

Photos of RIA Novosti and Olga Pashkova / Hedgehog