In uniform

Well, here is the war ...

February 9, 2016 Alexander Golts

The war, she was a small victorious war, whose goodness was not hesitated by the eminent Pro -Putinsky publicists, already on the threshold. It seems that from getting into a large military adventure with unpredictable consequences the Kremlin separates a few days, if not a clock. Supreme Commander -in -Chief Putin V.V. He gave an order to suddenly check the troops of the Southern Military District. The “verification” involves the compounds of the airborne troops, military transport aviation, the forces of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla. It is appropriate to recall that exactly two years ago at the end of February 2014, under the pretext of the same sudden audit, Russian troops were put forward to the Ukrainian border. And this became a prelude to the annexation of Crimea and the hybrid war in the Donbass. Then, I remember, the Russian chiefs with a grin stated that the ongoing exercises had exactly nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine. And now, official representatives of the Ministry of Defense with stone mugs report: we are talking only about preparing for the upcoming strategic teachings. At the same time, however, they are lying on the fact that Türkiye strengthens military preparations on the border.

In fact, all this happens in a situation where the Syrian node is tied more cooler. The successes of the Assad army, which, with the support of Russian aviation, is about to establish control of Aleppo, put other states involved in the conflict to the need to act. As far as one can understand, the forces of Assad, Russian bombers sequentially struck not at the terrorists from IG (which you will not immediately guess if you watch Russian television), but on armed detachments of opponents of the regime, which are supported by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the monarchies of the Gulf of Persian. And from these countries there were leaks about the possible participation in a ground operation in Syria. Washington reacted positively to these plans. Within the framework of the exercises, the transfer of quite significant British forces to Jordan began.

If we predict the worst development of events, then something that could be avoided in the years of the previous Cold War can happen. Namely - a direct and open military clash of our country and NATO states. In the past (wars in Korea, in China, in Vietnam, in the Middle East), the participation of the Soviet troops in regional conflicts was the secret of the postgraduate, but still did not recognize the open. Now the Russian armed forces are officially operating. Moreover, not only Moscow, which deployed the air base, acts as a participant in the conflict. Just in the very official television program, in the Kiselevsky “Vesti”, a report was held in which Mr. Kadyrov cheerfully reported that he began to send his fighters to Syria even before in Moscow they realized the threat emanating from the terrorist “Islamic state”: “They did not know about this in Russia. But I also did not know that ISIS would be called there. I knew that such groups were being prepared, because I specifically sent my people there - to check how true it was. And our guys took place at the NATO bases and launched the Syrian state. ” The fact that the Kremlin delegated the leader of Chechnya to violence not only within the country (allowing him to intimidate the opposition), but also to conduct hostilities abroad - a separate conversation.

In the event of Turkey entered the fighting in Syria, the Russian air base will instantly be under the blow. And it is unlikely to be able to protect the Kadyrov special forces, along with the battalion tactical group of the Marine Corps. A large -scale ground operation is required. The one that was worked out during the Center-2015 exercises: first, the airborne division is landed on the captured airfield, and then the 100,000th army is suitable. The only question is how to transfer these forces. Unlike the victorious scenario of maneuvers, it will be necessary to do this through the air - the Turks will surely block the Bosphorus, and to drive transport through the Atlantic and overhead and risky. I'm not talking about the fact that the supply of the group will be difficult, to put it mildly.

If the Kremlin still retains the ability to rationally evaluate what is happening, they should refrain from the ground operation and begin to think about emergency evacuation plans. But how to quit everything when victories is so close? Allow Turkish traitors to take away the victory from under the nose? For Putin, this is unthinkable. So they decided to prevent a preventive weapon in the Southern Military District, and at the same time mobilize the formations that can be thrown into battle tomorrow. The problem is that the Turkish leader is very similar to Putin, if he considers himself wounded, he will not stand behind the price to “send the answer”.

The just domestic propagandists excitedly stigmatized the Air Force television company, which quite realistically suggested that the Third World War may arise due to the fact that Moscow would begin a hybrid war in the Baltic states. It seems that we are close to a military clash with the NATO country. True, this war will burst out not because of Daugavpils, but because of the distant Syrian Aleppo ...


Photo: Russia. Sevastopol. The flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation of the Russian Guards missile cruiser (GRCR) "Moscow" in the Sevastopol Bay. Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS