Divorce without alimony

Russian-Ukrainian gas negotiations are already shaping up to be a good political thriller. Moreover, it is already obvious that they will not end in anything constructive. By the end of December they had entered a phase when the parties made their proposals through the press, accompanied by mutual threats. Moreover, the Ukrainian side is especially zealous: Gazprom put forward a tough ultimatum and firmly stands its ground, without making any concessions. And if quite recently the Russian oil and gas monopoly was ready to supply gas to Ukraine in 2006 at a “market price” of $160 per 1000 cubic meters (instead of the current $50), now this “market price” is already $230, and the management of Gazprom " stated that this price is final and is not subject to any further discussion.

After that, all initiatives came from Kyiv, Moscow only reacted to them. At first, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov “agreed” to pay $80 per 1000 cubic meters in 2006 and gradually switch to market relations by 2010. By a strange coincidence, the Northern European gas pipeline should be launched in 2010 and Russian gas supplies to Europe will no longer depend to such an extent on Ukrainian transit. Confronted with the contemptuous “bargaining is inappropriate,” Yekhanurov said that if an agreement is not reached by January 1, 2006, Ukraine will take 15% of transit gas going to Europe as a transit fee. To this, a representative of Gazprom said that the company would regard such practices as banal theft, and threatened with an international arbitration court.

The conflict flared up and gradually went beyond the exclusively gas problem. As a final argument, Ukraine reserved the possibility of revising the rent for the Russian Black Sea Fleet base. After the threat – already by President Viktor Yushchenko – was voiced, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that “the agreements on the Black Sea Fleet are an integral and inextricable part of the large Russian-Ukrainian agreement of 1997, the second part of which contains a clause recognizing the inviolability of borders,” and “therefore, revising these agreements is like death.” In other words, he unambiguously hinted that Crimea was not always Ukrainian, and Sevastopol was a city of Russian glory. One can only hope that the words of the Russian minister will remain nothing more than words.

And all this is happening against the backdrop of a somewhat ominous silence in Europe. With all the sympathy for the revolutionary masses who managed to repel the imperial rudeness of Moscow, it must be stated that Kyiv’s position on this issue looks, to put it mildly, undignified. In the end, everything, including freedom from the intrusive and not always competent guardianship of neighbors, has its price, and the price is far from excessive. You cannot demand from your ex-spouse that he continue to bring wages to the house from which he was asked. And the argument that such a sharp increase in gas prices will hit the Ukrainian economy looks pathetic and childishly naive: what does Gazprom care about the Ukrainian economy? A corporation must look after its profits and the interests of its owners. Where to get the money to pay for gas is a matter for the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance. You can raise taxes, or you can place Eurobonds, which European and maybe Russian investors will be happy to buy.

It was necessary to switch to market relations with our neighbors, and not only with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, a long time ago. Until recently, relations with neighbors were painfully reminiscent of the “mutually beneficial cooperation” of the CMEA member countries, which resulted in a multi-billion dollar foreign debt of the Soviet Union, all obligations for which were assumed by Russia. So today, and there can be no two opinions, Gazprom has every reason to demand that the independent state of Ukraine buy gas on a common basis with the independent state of Poland or the independent state of Germany. The only problem is that the principled position of the Russian oil and gas monopoly is dictated by the vindictive nature of President Putin.