Crisis of what?

Something terrible is happening to the Russian markets. They fall and fall. Already fell below the baseboard, and, apparently, this is not the limit.

Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev both explain what is happening on the Russian market, an American financial crisis.

This is an amazing explanation, because all the last years Vladimir Putin denounced the American “Third Reich” and a single -sex world. He said that the world should be multipolar. And before, when there were several superpower in the world, or several camps, the sunset of one camp always meant the heyday of another. Bad Rome is good Parthia. Bad Parfia is good to Rome. Bad Spain is good to England. Bad England is good Spain.

And now it turns out that the world is a single -sex, and this pole is the USA. That the United States is superpower not because the tanks can send somewhere, but because her mistakes affect the economy of the whole world.

It turns out that there is no multipolar world where the damned West is on the one hand, and on the other, alternative democracies such as Libya, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran and Russia. There is a living economic organism - and there is lice in its hair. These lice do not exist on their own. They sell oil to the free world and buy Mercedes for it. In some cases, as, for example, in the case of North Korea, they sell the free world of cocaine, because they can not produce anything competitive at all, and the offspring of the forever living North Korean leader is detained at the Tokyo airport, because the arctic infant wanted to look at Disneyland.

The answer to the question of what will happen to the Russian economy in this unipolar world depends on what form the crisis will take.

Option one, the softest

In the best case, if the American Mortgage MeltDown does not affect the foundations of the American economy, Russia has a chance to sharply improve its economic indicators.

This chance is now close to zero, thanks to the strange economic policy of the government.

Because now in the Russian economy there is no crisis yet. There is a fall in the stock market. And there are a number of amazing steps of the government. For example, the government allowed the Central Bank to issue loans to banks without collateral. That is how? There are 500 banks in Moscow, of which 400 wash money, will these banks receive loans without a bail?

This barrel is never filled with Danaid.

What, in fact, is terrible? Fall of indexes? It is natural with so much Margin Calls.

Growth of bets on the interbank, the collapse of the interbank and the inevitable collapse of many banks? Fine, the Russian banking system has long been in need of rehabilitation.

The collapse of the reinstalled real estate market? Wonderful. Housing in Moscow should be available to normal people, and not just officials who receive millions of bribes.

Reducing the volume of orders, what are metallurgists now complain (orders collapsed by 30%)? Wonderful. The metallurgists just went to Sichin and complained about Zyuzin, due to which inflation was growing. Their campaign resulted in a promise to send the doctor Zyuzin. The doctor’s parcel cost the next day the Russian stock market of $ 65 billion. Promotions fell, orders too. And inflation also fell. The one because of which the doctor had to be sent. Self-regulation is in Secinsky, EPRST.

There are a certain number of Russian companies that have a large amount of debt. For example, MTS. Or the “rusal” of Oleg Deripaska, who was fighting for control of the Norilsk Nickel with Potanin and gained about $ 14.5 billion.

Last Friday, 20% of the Canadian Magna, controlled by Bazel, went through Margin Calls. What will happen if Rusal cannot pay for other loans? And nothing. Parts of the Deripaska empire will move to creditors. Someone will buy them. For God's sake. In Russia there are a bunch of companies that are in the cache. Mikhail Prokhorov has a bunch of cash. The Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Plant has a bunch of cash, because the accounting department of Magnitogorsk is unlikely to know the word "derivative". Surgutneftegaz has a bunch of cash, because Bogdanov has been in the cache all his life.

Evgeny Chichvarkin, the owner of a successful, but re -has re -seduced Euroset, has just sold his company for $ 500 million. Stephen Jennings, the owner of the Renaissance Capital, had just sold for $ 500 million, which he refused to sell VTB a year ago for $ 3 billion.

For the consumer, nothing has changed. Euroset did not stop selling phones. Renaissance did not stop providing services. Why should the fate of Deripaska or any other re -re -entrepreneur differ from the fate of Chichvarkin?

What the government does is by no means safe. It behaves as if Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are limitless. They are great, but not endless. Lehman Brothers just went bankrupt. An investigation is being conducted against the bank, because there is a suspicion that, trying to escape, the bank was reinforced under the securities belonging to customers. Russia had $ 670 million in Leman. Ay guys? Are these not our papers walking around the market there?

And if something big crashes? If the bank crashes in which we hold $ 100 billion?

There is an official in Russia who has always been against meaningless expenses. This is the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin. However, in addition to this official in Russia there is an investment bank KIT Finance, which burned on mortgage lending. The Minister of Finance was very concerned about the well -being of this bank. And now this bank was saved. It is clear that after the authorities saved the Kit financial, the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin cannot impose a veto to save companies close to other officials. This will be perceived as a dishonest game.

In Russia there is another official who knows what to do with public duty. This is the deputy Kudrin Sergey Storchak. Unfortunately, he is in prison. Maybe let it out on this occasion? Maybe send him documents directly to prison so that he edit them? There is a precedent: at the first emperor of the mini, when the struggle with corruption reached the peak, officials had to be driven in blocks directly to Yamen, where they were engaged in the affairs of the board.

The crisis that is now approaching Russia will improve the economy, but will cause the redistribution of assets. It will lead to correction in the economy, but will kill parasites. And our government is now looking for ways to protect parasites.

The second option is worse

We will get the second step in the crisis if Mortgage Meltdown will affect the American economy. The problem is that during the recession, the degree of crisis will be directly, and not inversely proportional degree of removal from the place of disaster.

Roughly speaking, the United States and the damned West will suffer the least. China will suffer much more, because its economic growth depends on sales markets in the West. China growth will slow down. And most of all countries will suffer that oil and gas produced, the demand for which grew, because the economy of China grew.

In an economic sense, these countries, including Russia, are a derivative of the American economy. The Russian economy lies in the fact that we sell oil and gas and buy everything for the proceeds from the villas in Nice to Cement. If oil prices collapse, oil and gas sellers from the Kremlin-Gunvor joint venture will not have the money for which they buy villas and Mercedes. Roughly speaking, we will find ourselves in the mouse position in the pantries. The mouse thought that when the owner would leave the house, all the cereal would be her. And it turned out that when the owner left, the cereal in the pantry ended at all.

The third option

The worst is the third option. It suggests that not only the American economy will collapse, but also the existing world order based on the status of the United States as a superpower and the world district.

We complained a lot about this precinct. We shouted a lot that we would tear the contract on DOVS, send ships to Venezuela and give an alternative response to the pro. The problem is that our ships can only threaten the Assyrian fleet, and Dovs has about the same meaning as the agreement on the restriction of the use of onions, arrows and sling.

Alas, such a way of self -affirmation as rudeness is possible only if there is a nearby nearby. We looked like a drunken machine operator who beats his wife and children, made a mess at home, turned an apartment into a pigsty, but every evening screams because of the fence that now he will put his ass for the district police officer and would lead a neighbor Khokhlu Vita. The machine operator can even stick out from behind the fence and throw something at Mishiko’s neighbor-but not to death. So that the district police officer starts the case, but does not hang the deadline.

But in vain to think that when the district police officer disappears, we will get the opportunity to finally deal with Georgia, take Crimea for ourselves and punish the damned Estonian fascists. If the district police officer disappears and the world returns to the situation of the Middle Ages, when the strongest survives, it means two things. First: the Caucasus falls off from Russia, because the Caucasus to Russia is glued only with money, and the money will end earlier than the district police officer. The second: China will take the Far East and Siberia, with the help of war or de facto annexation.

It should be aware that the state in the state that is observed in Russia now - that is, in a state of cancerous degeneration of all state bodies - is something completely unable to survival from the point of view of the medieval structure of politics. It can survive only within the framework of the existing system of international guarantees, which we are so carefully kicking: as a brilliant port in the XIX century. I survived only because not a single European country could allow its destruction to its opponents.

In a word, gentlemen, the world is a single -sex. So far, the RTS index tells us. God forbid to bring to us Chinese tanks.