Translated material
Money does not smell
In the economy
Money does not smell
February 26, 2007 Alexey Makarkin
In his article , published in the “Daily Journal”, Ariel Cohen says that large Western investors are concerned about the fate of their assets in Russia after the 2008 elections. The concern is completely justified, given that Western investments in the country have really seriously grew. The only question is what strategy investors will be elected and what scenario the development of events seems to them premised. Namely: how they relate to the scenario in which an increase in the influence of anti -Western groups in the Russian government can occur. Whether they run from the country, saving their savings, or will behave somehow differently.
In this regard, we can recall, as it seems, quite a logical (even to triviality) thesis. For an investor who has built a positive relationship with the country's authorities, political stability in it is more important than possible democratic transformations. The authoritarian regime guaranteeing profit is more attractive to the investor than weak and ineffective democracy.
We move on. If the investor managed to build relations with one of the groups of influence in power, for him it is fundamentally important to strengthen or at least preserve the hardware positions of this particular group, regardless of whether it seeks to liberalize the regime or, on the contrary, insists on its tightening. It was this logic that was guided by entrepreneurs who invested money in Indonesia under Suharto or in Latin American countries under the next military regime. We can recall the experience of Western businessmen who had contracts with Soviet government organizations in the late 80s. They certainly preferred the immobilian government of the Union Prime Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov, a well -known, predictable and, as it seemed, reliable official - and with extreme distrust of democratic reforms, whose coming could disrupt the enforcement of concluded agreements. The asserts of socialism seemed to them much more attractive partners than the romantics of capitalism.
In this regard, for many investors, in general, it is not too interesting how the Russian policy will develop after solving the “problem-2008”-in the direction of liberalization or growth of authoritarian trends. For them, the main thing is that a group that controls the assets in which they invested won. Or - if we are talking about investors in the regions - the group with which the local governor is associated, since the foreigners managed to agree with him (if it was not possible, then such an investor in the region will not linger for a long time).
Yes, the Western expert community considers the possible success of the "security forces" a serious political risk. However, last year, investors intensively invested their funds in Rosneft - the economic basis of the “power” group in the Putin environment - when this company conducted an IPO. Some time after the IPO, Vladimir Putin, pleased with the results, met with representatives of its organizers who were Dresdner Kleinwort, Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital, JP Morgan. Recall also that the Board of Directors of Rosneft (where the chairman of Igor Sechin) includes the chairman of the Barclays Capital Bank Hans Jorg Rudloff, who previously held the posts of the chairman of the board of directors and boards of Credit Suisse First Boston. And last year, Peter O'Brien, who previously former the co-chair of the Morgan Stanley investment unit in Russia, was appointed to the vice-president’s position in this company.
All attempts to disrupt the Rosneft IPO with a reminder of the peculiarities of the capitalization of this company (as you know, the extension occurred using the use of technology under the conditional name “Baikalfinance groups”) did not lead to anything. In fact, the investment community silently recognized the law for such actions - of course, if they are not repeated too often. As for Western investors who lost their money in connection with the Yukos business, their problems were written off to a high level of political risks in any developing markets.
Not so long ago, another influential Russian “silovik” - the head of the Rosoboronexport company Sergey Chemezov - established control over AvtoVAZ. By many experts, this operation was regarded as the next stage on the way of nationalization of the economy. But how did Western business reacted to this news? Almost immediately, information that new foreign partners could come to the plant. More recently, for example, it was announced that AvtoVAZ continues negotiations with the Renault-Nissan alliance on the placement of cars of cars at power in Togliatti. Previously, the parties were very close to achieving agreements, but everything fell off; At the same time, the French side still hopes for the best. The Russian automobile market, taking into account the solvency of the population that has seriously increased in recent years, is very promising and attractive to foreign players. If the agreements can be achieved, then there is no doubt that these investors will only be happy if their partners from among the state managers will establish control over a couple of large enterprises.
At the same time, the “security forces”, with all their anti -Westernity, perfectly understand that without foreign investors they are doomed to peripherality with their economic assets. Another thing is that foreigners are perceived by them purely instrumental - the speech that, having talked with investors, the former KGB officers become modernizers and westernizers, of course, no. But investors do not claim the missionary role, which are performed by politicians, ideologists and human rights activists. Their task is to earn money, which, as Wespasian Flavius also showed, do not smell.
Author - Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technology
Alexey Makarkin
All rights to materials located on the EJ.ru website are protected in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, including copyright and related rights. With any use of the site and satellite projects, hyperlink (Hyperlink) on EJ.ru is required.