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A couple of days before the denouement?

February 3, 2011 Mikhail Margelov

Revolutions are now given the names of flowers. But what is happening on the streets of Cairo can be called the "revolution of stones." The supporters of Mubarak, who sat down to attack the opponents of the president of horses and camels, met a hail of cobblestones. And on the air we saw the beginning of fratricide. And what else will be told to believers in the nearest Friday prayer, one can only guess. I do not admit the thought that Tahrir Square will become the second Square Tiananmen. But in any case, after a couple of days of interchange of the situation in Egypt, we will not wait.

The liberal public both with us and in Europe welcomed an uprising in North Africa - Down with the tyrants! It can be assumed that the young people mobilized by the Internet really took to the streets with noble ideas. In any case, there were no green banners over the crowd. But from the Cairo outskirts, the disadvantaged in the center pulled up, and in the crowd, students of the Islamic University of Al-Azhar flashed. The pogroms and robberies began, and usually the faces, not spiritualized by liberal values, are scrapping and robbing. And at first, the liberals did not notice that with the same, with enthusiasm, the Islamists spoke with enthusiasm in Egypt.

Today, glee in Europe decreased, it was replaced by justified anxiety. Although, what to do with what is happening, they do not know now either in Europe or in America. Suddenly it turned out that the political climate in the region determines not only the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It turns out that there are enough conflicts within the Arab society itself and they do not come down to the mutual hostility of the Sunnis and Shiites. Socio-political cataclysms shook much more. After all, the people not only Egypt are brought to the pen, not in one Egypt, the top steals, kumes flourish, the opposition is destroyed, and the authorities of all levels are performed by arbitrariness.

And on the other hand, Egypt is a secular state, Mubarak himself did not suffer from anti-Semitism or anti-Americanism and drove the Muslim Brothers underground. The rebels do not have obvious leaders yet. There is still one El Baradei. And Mubarak still does not give up. There are opinions that clashes and robberies are provoked by power: the more blood, the more reasons the army is to use. And here is the "Muslim brothers." And reasonable fears arise: will they come to power, so to speak, on the shoulders of a rightly rebellious people?

This frightening assumption is based on the experience of Algeria and Palestine, where democratic elections led to the power of extremists. And if you believe that this will happen in Egypt, you can unwind the chain of really sinister consequences. To seize power in Egypt "Muslim Brothers", and the process of collapse of secular regimes in North Africa and the Middle East will go. The authority of Egypt is great here. And another process will follow - some of these countries of the region will begin their nuclear programs to have their own bombs. And, I agree with the experts, the caliphate will finally accept material outlines. But then one should forget about the multipolar world - there will be two poles again: one is a caliphate, and the second - the rest of the world.

The fears of this kind have the ground-the Muslim Brothers are much more organized than other opposition forces of Egypt. They are supported by no more than 20 percent of the country's population, but in revolutions, the top often does not take the top, but an organized minority. And for the embodiment of the ideas of the caliphate, the victory of the Islamists in Egypt, perhaps, is even more important than, for example, the same victory in Pakistan.

And, nevertheless, this gloomy script is not predetermined. Perhaps, the “third wave” of democratization finally reached North Africa and the Middle East. In any case, against the background of events in Tunisia and Egypt, not all changes in the highest echelons of the authorities lead to strengthening the positions of the fundamentalists. In Jordan, the alignment of political forces is different than in Egypt. There is a king, and the Islamists are not driven underground. Jordanians, like the Egyptians, protest against rising prices, unemployment and corruption. Under the influence of popular discontent in Jordan, the head of government has been replaced. The new prime minister was Maaruf al-Bachit-the worst enemy of Islamic extremism. Another example is Najib Mikati, who came to the post of Prime Minister Lebanon. He took this post after the government crisis, which was provoked by supporters of Hezbollah. But Mikati took a clearly centrist position, trying to form an office with the participation of politicians from the Circle of Saad Hariri.

It must be hoped that after Mubarak, power in Egypt will not fall into the hands of extremists and someone will not take the presidency for the next 30 years. Egyptian democracy, if it takes place, could change the political face of both Maghreb and the Middle East. As for Europe and America, they need to learn lessons from current events and promote in these regions not their interests, but fundamental values. You might think that in Brussels and Washington did not know how the pro -Western Mubarak ruled the country.

Photos of RIA Novosti