In the Kremlin

The flight of thought

December 16, 2009 Leonid Radzikhovsky

The articles of Avtandil Tsucladze favorably differ from a lot that they have to read: they are well written, they have an idea. Moreover: it is noticeable that the author is interested in what he writes about - a non -trivial phenomenon for a journalist engaged in “Russian politics”.

So if a colleague is not indifferent to my opinion, accept sincere compliments. Of course, along with the “but”, for which I write.

“But” lies in the fact that the shortcomings of the texts of Mr. Tsuladze are a continuation of his advantages. Continuation - beyond the boundaries of facts. I don’t know whether the reason is the enthusiasm of the author, or in an intellectual temperament, but he obviously wants the development of an abstract plot to have a logical continuation in material reality. And it happens - by no means he alone - the usual thing. Replacement: instead of rough, viscous, illogical, contradictory and, directly, nasty reality, a much more beautiful picture appears. Logical, bright, full action. One drawback: the squadron of my thoughts of the shaky is far away from the very reality that we are still forced to describe. If we, of course, do not claim the role of writers, but pull the strap of only journalists.

Well, for example ...

Having described the whole crisis, abominations, abominable and stench of the surrounding life, Mr. Tsuladze makes a jump from the kingdom of necessity to the kingdom of freedom.

A “strong scattering” arises under his pen: they say, almost for the New Year, Medvedev will take out a surprise from the bag - a decree on the removal of Putin from the post of chairman of the government. Here you are, dear Russians - with new happiness!

Well, then, we will fantasize this holy story.

Note, first of all, that no compromises such as the appointment of Putin by the head of the Constitutional Court, the first deputy prime minister, etc. They don't pass here. Putin’s real situation is this: everything is or nothing. And to persuade Putin to leave “voluntarily and with songs” will not work - he just cut off directly: “Do not wait!” So - war ...

But after all, we have formally, at least - a certain republic with parliament. Where out of 450 deputies of the Duma 314 (70%) are included in the YP faction. And the party "EP" is headed by Putin V.V. How can it be removed?

Formally-legal, the president has the right to publish such a decree. Then he - the president - is obliged to introduce a new prime minister. Which the Duma will certainly fail. Because the EP party - whatever it may be - simply cannot vote against its chairman! And to remove him from the post of chairman in an instant, to shake, smile and continue to go as if nothing had happened, and go to the voter-well, your will, I still do not have enough imagination.

So, "EP" remains Putin's party. So, the Duma will fail a new prime minister three times, after which the Duma is opening, new elections are assigned. The elections, by the time of which Mr. Medvedev does not have a strong “his party”, because the Communist Party cannot be such, the LDPR, too, and the Party “SR”-even if the president rushes to the side of the president (far from!)-the barrier necessary for passing to the Duma is barely crawling. This means that in the new Duma there is still no one to rely on the president.

But I am all drawing patterns on paper.

In reality, the prime ministers “just like that” are removed - if these are the phrases or Zubkov.

If we are talking about Putin, then explanations are needed - and very good. At the same time, Medvedev will need to explain why a couple of weeks ago he repeated that they had no disagreement with Putin. Explain why - if Putin’s government is so terrible - he, the president, was silent about this for almost two years. And the people also explain how this is: Putin nominated him for him, all his legitimacy from Putin, and he pushed Putin ...

At the same time, since Putin’s power - including on TV - will not evaporate in an instant, after all, Putin can also explain a lot of interesting things. And the party "EP". AND…

In a word, classical dual power is obtained in the most acute form (much more acute than in 1993!). With the perspective or chaos, the spray of power in general and the collapse of both furious branches, or the heavy victory of one branch and destruction (well, if not physical).

Can Medvedev go to this in their right mind?

He looks like a person who risk it?

Does he have motives for such suicidal behavior?

Is there strength around him, ready to rush for him into the fire and win? Who are these forces? A narrow circle of official-intellectual service? “Fronta”, which dares to criticize the “EP”, Surkov (and even then usually naming by name), but not Putin?

The opposition (Communist Party) will not fight "for Medvedev" - why did he need it? By the way, the ideology of Putin, in its sovereign part, is much closer to them than the Medvedev reboot.

The non -systemic opposition - and “liberals” and “fascists” - a) is quite powerless, b) is sharply configured against Medvedev and does not hide it. If chaos begins, then the political capitalization of the opposition-or some “third force”-can grow up a hundred times with a jump, but they certainly will not help Medvedev. Such an opposition will enjoy both Putin and Medvedev, power in general - as soon as the power is being announced. "Falling - Tumor!"

What does Medvedev do not see such obvious things, or what?

Medvedev is the flesh from the flesh of the Putin system, because Putin put it forward. However, in Russia, those who came out of it have always been poured the system. Alexander II destroyed the system of Nicholas I, Alexander III fought with the reforms of Alexander II, Khrushchev, as he knew how to, thanked Stalin, Brezhnev - Khrushchev, and Gorbachev - Brezhnev. This is understandable: since there are no two parties, the role of a tough opposition falls out to the legal heirs. So, according to this logic, Medvedev could oppose Putin.

But what to speak with?

Khrushchev - with the full support of all members of the Central Committee - abolished the system of political terror “against its” (and at the same time against the rest).

Brezhnev - with the full support of all members of the Central Committee - stopped the "eccentricity" of the completely wrapped chef, who simply got everyone his "Voluntarizma".

Gorbachev, splitting the Central Committee, but each time relying on the relative majority, with zigzags moved to the “market”, that is, how she felt part of the nomenclature-to sweets, to the possibility of finally “living like in the West”, finally use this very “state property”. How exactly this will happen, no one really understood, but what was going on in that direction - they felt. At least some goal, bait ... Yes, for the intelligentsia, for the "street" first Gorbachev, then Yeltsin were unconditional leaders.

What can offer the current elites Medvedev?

The fight against corruption?!

“Modernization” in the form of a supercomputer and “flight to Mars”? ..

The fight against officials? Group masochism?

Unlike the 1980s, the system is now as balanced as possible-the ruling bureaucratic class does not have unsatisfied system desires. One desire is “Stop a moment!”. Communism - as promised. And in the sense of needs, and in the sense of abilities. Individual representatives of the class of disputes with each other-on the Agrarian-Rublevsky issue-in bulk. But no one wants to change the rent. There is nothing to change! Raw material rent + power rent = natural rent. The nature of our nomenclature is such ...

This rent was very accurately called the "ideology of conservatism." Purns it is an understandable instinct of nomenclature.

As for the "people", i.e. Recipients of social rent, then he, of course, would like to have a fatter crumbs. But the absolute passivity of the population has already entered the saying, and even the most violent oppositionists do not deny it.

By the way, Mr. Tsubladze sees that somewhere in the depths this soup boils. I do not see. And the thermometer of the polls - Levada, Fom, VTsIOM, etc. - Nothing shows anything like that. As before, Putin’s support is on top, no one is nearby. And Medvedev has a good rating. By the way, Putin is evaluated as the ideal of a man, an example of “smart brutality” (and in second place, it seems, actor Khabensky).

Does all this mean that the system is durable?

Well, her vulnerable places are obvious.

Materially - it all depends on oil prices and cheap western loans. And, in any case, no one expects a soon continuation of the banquet.

Mentally - the final absence of any “project”, prospects for the country. You can combine words, but a project that someone would believe in and does not smell. "Modernization" is a great example of a wrapper without sweets. And they all see it.

But, firstly, this condition can last years.

Secondly, Medvedev-Putin has nothing to do with the “confrontation”.

So I appreciate the intellectual impulse of Mr. Tsuladze, but I do not agree with his expectations.

Photos of RIA Novosti