If the crisis

Talking about the upcoming global economic and financial crisis is becoming more persistent. Last Thursday, the former head of the Federal Reserve System Alan Grinspen advised not to worry particularly. When the stock bubble pings in China bursts in China, they say, although it will have some influence on the world economy, it will ultimately contribute to its healing. And at the beginning of this week, the World Bank published a report in which from next year a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the global economy is predicted, and developing markets can expect a “sharp and painful” slowdown.

One of the main reasons for this will be tightening monetary policy in developed countries and a decrease in the influx of investment in developing markets. To some extent, these conclusions are confirmed by the actions of Western investment funds that began to withdraw money from the Brik countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and, above all, from Russia. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, since April 25, Western funds have withdrawn from four countries about $ 300 million. Moreover, two -thirds of this amount was lost by Russia. At first glance, the loss is small for the Russian stock market. However, we should not forget that for this period there was an additional issue of VTB shares, during which shares of $ 8 billion were sold, and the Western funds bought more than half of the papers. It is easy to calculate how much the rest of the market has lost. The departure of foreign investors has already led to a serious drop in the quotes of shares of Russian companies. The RTS index lost 13.5% of its maximum value and is traded below than at the beginning of the year. However, until a drop in prices goes beyond the usual correction associated with fixing profit. As for the rest of the world - there, at all, stock indices set a record behind the record, not paying too much attention to the increasingly sounding gloomy forecasts.

However, there really are serious prerequisites for the crisis. Low interest rates holding for a long time (we are talking, first of all about developed countries), flooded the world economy with cheap money, while pouting “bubbles”, not only in stock, but also in world commodity markets, as well as in real estate markets. These “bubbles” can burst, anything can be the reason for this - from fixing profit in China to problems with mortgage loans in the United States. The question is how much this can threaten the Russian economy and residents of the country. The collapse of the stock market, if it happens, by and large, is not terrible for Russia. Despite the boom of the last two years in the collective investment market and the sharply growing number of people buying and selling shares, the number of private investors in the country is still too few. In an extreme case, a hundred thousand activists of the People’s IPO in recent years are finally disappointed in investing anywhere. And even then it is unlikely: financial literacy is growing rapidly, and most invest with open eyes, realizing all the risks. In addition, the stock market in the country has not yet become the main source of investment of Russian companies, so they will not suffer so much. The other consequences of the global crisis may turn out to be much more unpleasant. For example, a decrease in the growth rate of the global economy always means a drop in demand (and hence prices) for raw materials. As it happens, we observed in 1997-1998. Today, Russia, of course, is not the country that it was 10 years ago. The gold and foreign exchange reserves are approaching 400 billion dollars, more than 10% of GDP has already accumulated in the stabilization fund (though the stab fund will be divided from next year).

However, a drop in raw materials will significantly affect the Russian economy. According to the Minister of Finance, Alexei Kudrin, the “cube” will have to be printed if in 2008-2009 the price of oil falls below $ 45 per barrel. For 2010, the critical line is even higher - $ 50 per barrel. Despite the fact that the external public debt has decreased greatly in recent years, the external debts of Russian banks and corporations have grown to $ 260 billion. At the same time, state Gazprom and Rosneft were the leaders of borrowings. A particularly unpleasant situation is Rosneft, which aggressively boughts Yukos assets, bringing his debt to $ 36 billion. In the case of falling oil prices, the capitalization of the company (now about 80 billion dollars) and its revenue will fall seriously, and, accordingly, the creditworthiness will cause serious doubts. The company not so long ago was declared a strategic enterprise, which means that Sergey Bogdanchikov’s ambitions will have to be paid from the budget in which the hole is already formed. The same, although to a slightly lesser extent, belongs to a larger Gazprom, whose external debt exceeded $ 40 billion. Improving interest rates will make loans more expensive, and it will be more difficult to refinance your debts to Russian banks and companies. The reduction in the income of companies exporting the raw materials will directly affect the income of their employees and indirectly - on the income of almost everyone else. Having superimposed the excessive passion of the population with consumer loans, which is already leading to a significant increase in the share of non -return, the fall in income can lead to an increase in the number of personal bankruptcy and the banking crisis.

The state today has enough resources to solve all these problems and reduce damage from the global crisis - if it happens - to a minimum. The problem is that the low growth rate of the global economy, low oil prices, and, therefore, for gas, they can last a year or even two. For a long time accumulated money, taking into account all the latest initiatives and accepted social obligations, will not be enough. And nanotechnologies and other “breakthrough” and “priority” projects will not be given an economic effect soon (if this happens at all). In other words, the Russian economy in just the past few months has become much more vulnerable and less resistant to external factors. Perhaps that is why foreign investors withdraw money from the Russian stock market so hastily.