In the Kremlin

Who does not want to become president

August 15, 2011 Avtandil Tsuladze

The main theme of the Russian public policy "Who will become the president - Putin or Medvedev?" I am deprived of meaning for a very simple reason: neither one nor the other president does not want to become and is not going to. But what about the "intrigue of the elections"? Medvedev honestly answered this question during a speech in Skolkovo: "Politics is not only a show." There are still some “technological” aspects that do not allow us to voice a decision ahead of time. Tolerate. Let's say soon.

What are these "technological" aspects like that? Thanks to the “effective management” of Putin as the President, the dependence of the Russian economy on the Western surpassed all threshold quantities. Under the brand of the "Energy Empire", Russia became the raw materials appendage of the West in the full sense of the word. All these “northern flows” bypassing the former Soviet republics indicate one thing - the Kremlin seeks the maximum volumes of raw materials as quickly and more expensive as possible. While buying. In Russia itself, gasoline crises have already begun (according to media reports , the crisis has already reached Moscow), but domestic consumption for the ruling oligarchy has no matter. The main thing is the conversion of raw materials reserves of Russia into currency.

However, the US public debt, the Eurozone crisis and the general aggravation of the economic crisis on a global scale put the Russian elite in an even more difficult situation. Being firmly attached to Western economies and currencies, the Russian elite is not able to play an independent game. Western problems inevitably become Russia's problems. Other words, in addition to the mass of its own unresolved problems, Russia receives more problems of the West. And all that the Russian elite can do in this situation is to weave in the tail of world events. The initiative - both political and economic - in the hands of global players. What game will they be in the Russian ruling class, representatives of the latter can only guess. In a word, the upcoming years of global destabilization conceal a lot of dangers, and in such a situation the position of president of Russia also becomes quite dangerous. Neither Putin nor Medvedev have established themselves as people who could take political responsibility for the future of the country. The future President of Russia should play the role of a “thunderbird”, which will take blows from the main political players.

On the eve of the 2008 crisis, a combination with Putin Medvedev was played. The meaning of the design of the “tandem” was that the responsibility was sprayed between the “tandemocrats”. The media constantly confused the audience with versions of the one of the two “kings” what questions solve, who are more important, etc. In these disputes, the topic of responsibility of the highest authority for what was happening in the country has retreated to the background. Which was required.

In addition, the design of the “tandem” weakened the discipline of the state apparatus (and without a tandem is very low) and turned the storage of the state budget into a competition between the teams of Putin and Medvedev about who will master more money for the “modernization” of Russia. Therefore, corruption at Tandem has increased repeatedly and even at high oil prices the budget becomes scarce by several years to come.

But the global economy enters into the era of reduction of government departments. “Defolt show” in the USA is a clear signal to all the main players: the policy of “filling” the world economy ends with money. The theory of overcoming the crisis due to the increase in state expenses and stimulating consumption did not justify itself. On the agenda - "Plan B". The time comes for savings, unpopular reforms, privatization of state property, reduction of state apparatus, etc.

In accordance with the new attitudes, the Russian ruling class has to change its tactics. It is necessary to get rid of ballast that have sucked to the regime of small corrupt officials, for feeding which there are no longer funds. Therefore, the power with its own hands destroys the party "United Russia", which gathered almost the entire corruption class under its banners. The small corruption party “Fair Russia” was removed quite easily, since it occupied a peripheral place in the political system. "United Russia" is written off using more complex technology:

-organization of corruption "cases" against individual figures of the Niza and Middle Party;

- Replacing the governor's corps. It is the governors who rule the party’s branches in the regions. New personnel will solve the problem of the collapse of the party more efficiently than the old ones;

- the formation of the "Popular Front", under the roof of which personnel not intended for "stripping" will be covered;

- The promotion of the “right -handed” as the “banner” of economic liberalism and the alternative to the dominance of bureaucrats;

- PR against the party in the media as “the party of crooks and thieves”, etc.

Since unpopular reforms and reduction of social programs are coming to the future president, the populist PR in this position will be difficult to conduct. For Putin, such a situation is unacceptable. The factor of popularity in the “broad masses” for Putin is determining. It is he who allows him to stay in great politics.

It would seem, according to the logic of the development of events, Medvedev should advance the president for the next period, and Putin will remain, as now, the Prime Minister and the “national leader”. But the “technological” aspects of the elected campaign require the “change of signs”. A simple repetition of the current design deprives the election of any meaning in general. As the classic of the “psychology of the masses” wrote, G. Lubon: “The main duty of state people should be ... renaming and named with popular or neutral names of those things that the crowd no longer endures under their previous names.” In addition, Medvedev’s hardware positions intensified, and there are no guarantees that, having re -elected for a second term, he will not pursue a more ambitious policy towards Putin.

Consequently, a new controlled president is needed, who will take on the load of unpopular reforms and dissatisfaction of the population. At the same time, there should be a figure that has not become a figure in a political party. As usual, V. Zhirinovsky was entrusted to running the idea. According to the media: “Zhirinovsky is convinced that Russia really wants to see new people in the power, so neither Medvedev nor Putin should be the next president of the country. According to the leader of the LDPR, the situation would be ideal if, during the upcoming parliamentary elections, United Russia would have gained no more than 40% of the places in the State Duma. "

Thus, a new figure should appear in the arena, and United Russia should share part of a package of shares with another parties in power. This new “figure” is declared by M. Prokhorov. Prokhorov has neither political experience, nor his political team, which makes him managed. Prokhorov is well suited in texture for an advertising campaign. Young, tall, sports and successful in everything Prokhorov will replace the aging and stunted Putin in the role of “Russian James Bond”. His inexperience in political affairs and the accompanying idealism will strengthen the convincing effect. Thus, the task of Prokhorov is to save the system, slightly reformatting it and offering a new attractive packaging.

The position of prime minister, who controls financial flows and “security forces”, is acquired in the system. The importance of this position increases in connection with the adopted program of “Great Privatization”, according to which such key elements of the current “hospitalism”, such as Rosneft, VTB, RusHydro, Rostekhnologi and other companies will be transferred to private hands. These are the requirements of the “Washington regional committee”, which demonstrated to everyone its strength with the threat of US default. Countries with a high state share in the economy are expected by the fate of Greece. The “Independent Gazeta” reports: “The threat of ruble devaluation may be much closer than in the government. Import to Russia is growing in 2011 with a record pace - above 40% over the same period last year. In the first five months, imports grew by almost 49% - the Ministry of Economic Development reports in the last report on the economic situation in the country. Because of this, in 10 months, Russia can fall into the area of ​​enhanced devaluation pressure-independent experts believe. In the best case, the ruble is waiting for devaluation at a pace of 10-15% per year even while maintaining high oil prices. ” The modernization of Russia and the upcoming privatization program are also linked by American analysts from Stratfor. They dubbed this privatization program as "the largest in the world." And US President B. Obama praised V. Putin for his commitment to the ideas of “rebooting” and called for focusing the cooperation of the United States and Russia in the economic sphere. Translated from bureaucratic to human, this means that American capital also wants to get its share in Russian companies. Such a large -scale redistribution of the economic basis for the regime inevitably entails the restructuring of the political system.

The design of the future “modernized” system will be determined not by presidential, but by parliamentary elections. The meaning of the Popular Front project is to guarantee Putin the chair of the Prime Minister. The Popular Front is Putin’s personal project. Having received the majority in the Duma, the "front -line soldiers" will provide Putin with his political future. Putin is retrained in the "Patriarch of Russian Policy", to the "Higher Authority" of the authorities. Flights on helicopters and aircraft will remain in the past. The “sports” part of the political PR will be carried out by the new President of the Russian Federation M. Prokhorov.

Medvedev in these combinations is an extra figure. He failed to gain popularity among the masses, despite all the efforts of the propaganda machine. For the next six years, Medvedev is too weak cover for the political system. The position of a lecturer in Skolkovo is a completely comfortable completion of his political career.

As for the "Medvedevites" faction, they are easily retrained in Prokhorovtsev. To strengthen their hardware positions, they need that the “right -hand business” has the maximum possible number of places in the Duma. Competition between United Russia and the Right Deal is the struggle for the value of the joint -stock package in the future configuration of the authorities. But, in general, the Russian elites seek to maintain a balance of forces within the system due to the regrouping of forces. However, the division of “pieces of property” in Russia cannot be peaceful and calm. A prolonged conflict in Norilskle between O. Deripaska and V. Potanin is a visual model of how members of one clan cannot agree on control over the enterprise. And here at the stake is half-Russia, if not more.

Mikhail Prokhorov was introduced into the game in order to balance the system. He himself claims that it was his initiative. Perhaps so. But the main thing is that the Kremlin was supported by the initiative. However, there is such a thing as "self -development of the script." Many famous writers admitted that, having come up with heroes and the general scheme of the narrative, at a certain moment they began to depend on the heroes they created. The heroes themselves drive the writer's pen. Something similar is happening in politics. While the project “Prokhorov” at the Startup stage, it is “led” from the Kremlin and is considered as a figure in the game of old -timers of the political Olympus. But as Prokhorov will find his political person, the situation may change - the led will become the leader.

Photo by RIA Novosti