We live in another country

So, we already live in another country. And this is just the beginning.

In order.

First. Since the partition of Poland by Stalin and Hitler, the authorities responsible for the territory of the USSR and Russia for the first time violated a number of international obligations in such a flagrant manner, pitting themselves against the international community and their existing and potential allies. This is a cross for the CIS, the Eurasian Union and other undertakings of the current government. This is an end to the strategy of real politics, which is close to Putin’s heart, within the framework of which the West, squinting and half-turning away, indifferently watched Putin’s trampling of Western values ​​within our country.

Second. The creeping process that began at the end of Putin’s second presidential term ended explosively: Putin ceased to be a guarantor of stability for the entire ruling coalition, with the exception of a few close associates who were plotting a military adventure with the commander-in-chief. We must understand that this was precisely his main mission - to be a guarantor for the ruling kleptocracy. And to the extent that he was able to implement this mission, he satisfied the establishment, despite all the personal costs. While Russia generally behaved decently, was perceived as a full-fledged state, accurate to the specific qualities of this state, only a rating was expected from Putin, which ensured the stability of the situation within the country. More recently, Putin boosted his profile by successfully hosting the Olympics in an annex to his estate. It is possible that he will maintain this rating for a short time on the wave of war hysteria. But since yesterday, his rating within Russia has become insignificant, since the Russian establishment is integrated into Europe, connected with it by business interests, pleasant details of personal life and life plans. All this was buried by Putin. I have no doubt that they will hand him over or dump their own as soon as they feel that the slightest opportunity for this will arise.

Third. I suspect that Putin is also aware of this danger. This means that the already not very monolithic ranks of the Putin establishment will face severe weeding at the hands of the new oprichnina. The commander-in-chief will try to rely on the third echelon, which was rising as part of a long-fanned campaign of aggressive xenophobia, which was hidden behind the legend of “conservative values”; a kind of Milonov-Kiselev tumor. This oprichnina will be tasked with subduing dissatisfied representatives of the establishment, accusing them of cosmopolitanism and lack of patriotic feelings. Well, corruption for the entertainment of the public.

Fourth. Putin's unpredictability, exposed to a pathological level, will complement the unpredictability of the socio-economic situation in Russia. I will not go into retelling the huge number of forecasts; my readers are probably already familiar with them. But panic had already begun. And on Monday, when the stock exchanges open, we will rake in full, and this is only the beginning of the mournful path. And in the short term - the inability of the authorities to provide social obligations, inflation, production stops, etc. I won’t be surprised that in a year’s time quotas and cards will be introduced in some regions of the country. And then people will begin to angrily break away from the zombie boxes. And there will be a lot of these people. And they will not have alternative leaders, because Putin has prudently trampled, burned and planted everything. And then - riots.

Fifth. There is an inexorable logic of degradation of the internal life of a country that has started (declared) an aggressive war. A “united impulse” is needed. It can occur if you are attacked. But you need special efforts for impulse when you attack yourself. War requires internal enemies who "undermine morale." And it is clear that everything that Putin’s government has done so far has prepared the ground, with or without calculation, for creating an atmosphere of hatred within the country towards everyone and everything that will rebel against this insane aggression. And all those protesting against it will be branded by Putin’s propaganda as “champions of fascists.” And signs of dissent will expand, drawing more and more people into the meat grinder. Any war of aggression is a blow to one’s own rights and freedoms. And we will lose freedom of movement, the last independent media, the Internet, the ability to gather “more than three” and a long list of rights and freedoms.

We all deserve this with our conformism, our naive belief that the stability of the social order is achieved by the stability of the leader on the throne. But irremovable power corrodes social institutions and decays itself. Inevitably. Now we see this in a completely clear and disgusting execution.

Everything written above is just a fantasy, a forecast, if you like. As Robert Merton explained to us, a forecast can be self-justifying or self-refuting. Everything depends on us. After all, now Putin will be kept on the throne by only one thing – our fear.