In the Kremlin

Rokirovka

November 15, 2005 Julia Latynina

Poloc an azdemen Kiriyenko and Pulikovsky were removed from the field; The Minister of Defense of Sergei Ivanov was also appointed Deputy Prime Minister, and the head of the presidential administration Dmitry Medvedev was either raised or reduced to the first deputy prime minister.
Food for political scientists for a week. What would that mean?

Apparently, Kiriyenko and Pulikovsky suffered for the same misconduct: for trying to independently play on the field of governor's permutations. Agree, the governors are offered by President Putin. And the right to choose governors was taken from the people not to transfer to some kind of envoy.

Therefore, for example, negotiations that Kiriyenko led in his Nizhny Novgorod region could be incorrectly understood. Moreover, Kiriyenko, as they say, conducted negotiations with two at once - with the head of the local Zaks and the mayor of Nizhny Novgorod. And, God knows that these people irritated by failure could say in the Kremlin. They could, for example (exclusively in the order of revenge), paste for the poor envoy that he took money. Immediately from two. And he appointed the Kremlin the third - Valeria Shantseva.

The story that overwhelmed the bowl of patience in the case of Pulikovsky, apparently, is an anecdotal attempt to make the Kamchatka Vekselberg. All political bomond was well aware that the coastal fish producer Oleg Kozhemyako wanted to become the governor of Kamchatka. That not without the help of Pulikovsky, he became the governor of Koryakia, that it was Kozhemyako who technically ensured the unification of Koryakia with Kamchatka, and that Pulikovsky and Kozhemyak always had excellent relations, and that he repeatedly visited the Kozhemyaki estates - the village of Preobrazhenskoye.

It’s not that Kozhemyako, whose past is no different from the past Governor Darkin or mayor of Vladivostok Winnie-Pooh, inspired special respect. Not that it was a forbidden reception: to extort money for appointing friends.

But somehow it was really publicly all that was. Call a bill of meter to yourself, offer “if you want to be a governor of Kamchatka,” listen to a negative answer and immediately ask: “Well, when I publicly voice this proposal, do not immediately refuse to publicly publicly.”

That is, usually, nevertheless, publicity is used to expose the bribe takers, and not to increase bets at the auction-especially since the envoy, as already mentioned, sell positions at this auction. It's a shame: Pulikovsky lit all the raspberries, and even having the slightest attitude to the process.

Another thing is the new posts of Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov. Regarding them, there is no unanimity in the interpretation.

Political scientists have already substantiated that the first phase of the successor operation entered into business. Dmitry Medvedev repeats the same path as Vladimir Putin himself. From the presidential administration - to the government, from there - a candidate for president. And Sergey Ivanov is his likely understudy.
They will choose in a year and a half, which of the new deputy prime ministers to do.
To be honest, to me, and that's why.

First: about the appointment of Dmitry Medvedev went rumors a couple of months ago. I do not know a single key appointment in the era of Putin’s reign (whether it is the appointment of Miller, or Fradkov, or even the same Shantsev), which was known in at least two hours.

Second: rumors about operations to preserve the current regime without changing the Constitution arise regularly, as if a special body responsible for their circulation has reached the Kremlin. Either we unite with Belarus, then with Kazakhstan, then we will have a parliamentary republic, then - a successor.
At the same time, these rumors are distributed with Troyak's goal.

The first goal: to compromise in the eyes of the president of the developer of the project. (It was such an origin of the rumor about the “parliamentary republic.” This project was first proposed by Putin Khodorkovsky, was perceived as an amplification of the oligarch, and all the rumors that Voloshin and Surkov were developing the Parliamentary Republic project meant to exhibit them with secret supporters of Khodorkovsky.)

The second is the second: when the “successor” himself dissolves these rumors, he does this with the aim of increasing his own specific seizure. Agree that just the official and the successor rely on different amounts.

And finally, the third goal is: "Punching." Such a rumor is launched in order to verify the fidelity of the alleged “successor”, as well as persons from the near environment. How, will the successor be spinning? Will he imagine himself great? Will those who have recently swore allegiance to run to him?

The most remarkable thing is that all these three goals can organically agree with each other and, as necessary, flowing one into another. In what, in the art of bureaucratic intrigue, the current inhabitants of the Kremlin reached heights, unknown even eunuchs in the Istanbul harem. If they were the same skillful economists or generals, the Russians would have long been ruled by Microsoft and washed boots in the Indian Ocean.

Dmitry Medvedev, remote from his post after he began to go too often to the president and darken in an unspoken table about the ranks of the figure of his formal deputies - Sechin and Surkov, he himself may well be sure that he was promoted. And his deputies, who replaced the too nominated chief with a statist from Siberia, can be mistaken both about the boss and about the statist, who quickly runs weight in this post. (Yes, and the statist, it seems, was not appointed to fill out the vacancy in the Kremlin, but in order to free up the place of the governor of Tyumen, who, after the confluence of the Tyumen region, Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamal-Nenets district, will become fantastically tasty and will be equal in importance of the post of head of Gazprom.)

In this bureaucratic weightlessness there is no top and bottom, there is only an endless flow of completeness into emptiness and void in fullness. It makes no sense to analyze these resignations and appointments. Only system logic can be analyzed. And the systemic logic is such that not a single authoritarian ruler in the world, not counting Pinochet, has left voluntarily from his post. The story developed only one way to transfer authoritarian power: from father to son, and when the father is already dead.

Our president may not know about it and nourish illusions about it. But the laws of power are almost as the laws of gravity. And if the operation “A successor for three months” occurs in Russia, then it will not happen in 2008, but earlier. (By the way, a lot indicates this: both the populist pre -election budget for the next year and the explosions in the Caucasus merging into one continuous canon.)

And one more consideration regarding this enchanted world of resignations and appointments. No matter how skilled intrigues, whatever the number of players on this enchanted board, one does not have any influence on the game: the real situation. The son of Sergei Ivanov shot down an old woman at the crossing. In a normal country, this would end either with the landing of his son, or by the resignation of Ivanov, or both of them. At our chances of Ivanov, this did not reflect in any way in the operation of the successor. Not that in a plus or minus. No way.
Julia Latynina

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