The Emirate is a mess

The Caucasus Emirate is incredibly weak. But the FSB is powerless even in front of such an adversary.

Two appeals of the leader of the virtual "Caucasus Emirate" Dokku Umarov appeared on the Internet. The first of them was recorded before the terrorist attack at Domodedovo, on January 24, 2011. In it, next to Umarov, the future martyr Seifullah is sitting, who, according to ...

Two appeals of the leader of the virtual "Caucasus Emirate" Dokku Umarov appeared on the Internet.

The first of them was recorded before the terrorist attack at Domodedovo, on January 24, 2011. In it, next to Umarov, sits the future martyr Seifullah, who, according to Umarov, should explode somewhere in Russia (Umarov does not specify where). Umarov promises Russia "a year of blood and tears" and declares that the reason for the attack is that the Russians "mock Caucasians." In other words: this is for Manezhnaya.

On the second video, recorded after the terrorist attack, everything is the same, only Umarov is still talking about international politics and that all the troubles in the world come from the oppression of Muslims exterminated by the USA, Israel and Russia.

Sometimes the most important thing in a message is the form, not the content. It's the same with this message. What is the first thing that catches your eye?

A complete failure in communications. Umarov arranges an advertising campaign, but he has no way to quickly contact the world. Therefore, the appeal is recorded in advance (hence the vagueness of the wording) in order to appear at the Kavkaz Center immediately after the explosion. But here, too, a failure: the message does not reach the Internet for another two weeks. In other words, it was not sent by electronic communication channels. It was written on a flash drive, and the flash drive was passed from hand to hand for a couple of weeks - a communication speed worthy of the times of camels, semaphores and post holes.

By the way, from this it is clear how the FSB learned about the impending terrorist attack. I saw a flash drive - one of the couriers was an agent.

This is not the first time Umarov's messages testify to the extremely difficult situation of the leader of the virtual "Emirate", at least in terms of access to communication channels.

After the explosions in the metro on March 29, 2010, Umarov also behaved in a more than strange way. At first (according to the "First Caucasian"), he said that the militants were not involved in the attacks. A few days later, in another video message, he said that he ordered the explosions in retaliation for the "death of peaceful wild garlic pickers", and declared the first video message a fake.

Apparently, this behavior of Umarov was explained by the brewing discord in the ranks of the Islamists. A few months before the explosion, Umarov put a native of the village of Gimry, Ibragim Gadzhidadaev, at the head of the Dagestani Mujahideen, but the explosion was organized by another Dagestani, a native of Gubden, Magomedali Vagabov, one of whose wives exploded in the subway. When Umarov realized that his statement indicated a loss of control over the movement, he hastened to take other people's merits to himself so as not to look like a man who does not know what his subordinates are doing.

On August 2, an even stranger story happened. Umarov announced his resignation in a video message and appointed Chechen Aslambek Vadalov as his successor. Vadalov himself and his close friend, the Jordanian Khaled al-Khalitat, nicknamed Muhannad, the successor of Khattab and Abu Hafs, the most real representative of Al-Qaeda in Chechnya, were sitting with him on the film. However, a few days later, Umarov not only took back his words, but also declared the first tape a fake.

The reason is the same: discord in the organization and chaos in communication. Apparently, Umarov simply did not have the physical ability to assemble Shura, who alone could decide the issue of his successor. The only way to notify the Dagestan, Kabardian and other amirs of their decision was to announce it via the Internet. The decision caused them dissatisfaction (apparently, they are satisfied with a weak leader), and Umarov retracted his own words.

Usually Islamic fundamentalists do not take responsibility for the attacks. Exactly the opposite: they prefer to blame "Zionists", "Crusaders" and "Rusnya" for their own attacks. The fact that Dokku Umarov takes responsibility for everything, including what he did not do (as in the case of the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station), again clearly indicates his weakness.

There can be no strong leader who hides in burrows, has difficulties with communication and, in addition, did not become famous during the first Chechen war, except for the fact that he prudently survived where the brave men laid down their lives.

After Umarov's refusal to leave his “post”, discord within the virtual “Caucasus Emirate” reached its peak. On October 7, 2010, most of the Chechen fighters (together with the already mentioned Mohannad) announced their withdrawal from Umarov's subordination and elected Hussein Gakaev as leader, who made himself known by two high-profile actions: an attack on Khosi-Yurt, Ramzan Kadyrov's ancestral village, and a suicide attack on parliament in Grozny.

Thus, the Chechens and the Jordanian Mohannad made their position clear: they are fighting in Chechnya. Their target is the Kadyrovites.

Now Umarov has also declared his position: he wants to be a real international terrorist. Hence the explosions in Domodedovo and the talk about Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Palestine, Algeria, where "our brothers are being killed." The fact that Umarov's "visiting card" had to wait for several months again testifies to the extreme weakness of the leader of the Mujahideen.

There are enough fanatics in the Caucasus who are ready to sacrifice themselves in case of an explosion of a police station, but it turned out to be difficult to find a fanatic who is ready to sacrifice himself for the sake of the advertising plans of a marginal who has perverted and lost power. The ability to renounce one's own words after three days, which is terrible in a totalitarian ruler, is indescribably comical for a resistance leader - only this humor is black, because it is accompanied by a large number of corpses.

Even stranger is the motivation (“revenge for the oppression of Caucasians in Moscow”) that Umarov gives to the attack.

The ideology of the Caucasus Emirate is international. How can the leader of a virtual state intercede for “all Caucasians”, whose ideologists have repeatedly emphasized that for them there is neither a Greek, nor a Jew, nor a Russian, nor a Caucasian, but only Muslims and infidels? And “a Russian, if he converted to Islam, is our brother, and a Chechen, if he is a hypocrite, is the worst enemy,” as said half-Russian, half-Buryat Said Buryatsky.

Umarov in the role of the defender of all Caucasians is the same nonsense as Lenin in the role of the Black Hundreds. Such a speech again testifies to the extremely shaky position of Umarov, clutching at any straw in order to maintain power and life; It seems that the leader of the virtual "Imarat" lives in the same virtual world and has finally lost the distinction between reality and his own lies, just like his opponents from the FSB, by the way.

All of the above, however, raises serious questions.

The Caucasus Emirate is incredibly weak. There is discord in the ranks of his emirs. Its leader cannot physically maintain normal communications, hides from every rustle and is the object of hunting both enemies who want to destroy him and subordinates who are ready to take his place.

But even with such a weak organization, penny spending and almost zero capabilities, our FSB is powerless to stop the attacks.

The terrorist attack that broke on December 31 broke without any participation of the valiant knights of the cloak and dagger - just a SIM card inserted into an explosive device received spam from Megafon, congratulations on the New Year - and the terrorist who assembled the device exploded in Kuzminki with him .

What will happen when the agonizing Umarov leaves and is replaced by a more capable leader? What will happen when the US leaves Iraq and Afghanistan and all the money that Islamic fundamentalism spends there will pour into the Caucasus (and now not a cent of this money goes to the Caucasus, they are fighting for ours, budget)? What will happen if at least one fundamentalist Islamic state appears in the Middle East?

The helplessness that Umarov's appeal demonstrates only emphasizes the equally blatant helplessness and incompetence of the Russian special services. And the comical situation in which the FSB either fired, or did not fire, or fired, but did not say who, for the terrorist attack (see below), is additional evidence of this.

Under the text

Yesterday it became known that the first resignations took place in the FSB after the terrorist attack in Domodedovo. However, only at the level of heads of "some departments".

RIA Novosti quotes a "high-ranking FSB official" as saying that after the president's order to find the perpetrators of the terrorist attack, several departments, including those in Moscow and the Moscow region, underwent a series of reshuffles at the level of deputies.