Syrian zugzwang

Russia and the West focused on mutual accusations, giving the militants an opportunity to launch an offensive

On October 26, 22 schoolchildren and six teachers were killed under the ruins of a school in the city of Hass in the Syrian province of Idlib. Photos and videos of the tragedy, distributed by rescue volunteers from the White Helmets organization, were picked up by the world's largest news agencies and television companies.

UNICEF Executive Director Anthony Lake called the attack on the school "a tragedy, outrage and a war crime."

Washington quickly found the culprit. White House spokesman Josh Earnest convened an emergency briefing during which he said: "We don't know who dropped the bombs, but we believe it was Russian or Syrian aircraft."

The Russian Ministry of Defense denied the accusations, saying that on the day of the death of schoolchildren and teachers, neither Syrian aviation nor the Russian Aerospace Forces flew to this area. This can be confirmed by the Pentagon, because, according to radar data, on October 26, an American reconnaissance drone was working on Hass.

Moreover, the Russian military department claims that there was no air strike on a school in the city of Hass at all. This is allegedly evidenced by the analysis of photographs and video materials distributed by the White Helmets.

An employee of the press service of the Defense Ministry told Novaya Gazeta: “The video clip was glued together from different filming, filmed at different times and with different resolutions. A huge gap is visible in the wall of the school, but a few meters opposite there is not a single trace of fragments. And the furniture is standing, although it should have been swept away by the shock wave ... "

It may sound cynical, but today, against the backdrop of the aggravation of the operational situation in Syria and, above all, around Aleppo, the message about the death of schoolchildren and teachers in the city of Hass began to look like informational artillery preparation for the activation of armed groups, which the West calls rebels, or oppositionists, and official Damascus - terrorists.

On October 27, militants shelled the western part of Aleppo. Several shells hit the school. Three children died, dozens were injured. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights) reported that "the opposition fired hundreds of rockets towards the western districts of Aleppo, controlled by government forces, killing more than 15 civilians and injuring another 100 people." And SOHR is an organization created by the Syrian Ali Suleiman (aka Rami Abdul-Rahman), who received political asylum in Britain, lives in Coventry and is in contact mainly with opponents of Bashar al-Assad.

It was difficult not to notice the shelling of the western part of Aleppo. The fact is that the “rebels” themselves from the terrorist organization Ahrar ash-Sham, banned in Russia, posted on the Internet a video of a volley from the Grad multiple launch rocket system. And soon after the shelling, on the night of October 28, an offensive began on the positions of Syrian government forces. And at the same time from the south-west of Aleppo and the eastern quarters of the city.

Several thousand militants of the terrorist organizations Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, banned in Russia, deployed to Aleppo from Idlib, with the support of three dozen guns, mortars, and several armored vehicles, attacked the positions of government troops that took up defense in the Al-Assad quarter. The offensive, more like a psychic "attack from the march", was repulsed. Apparently, attempts to break through the encirclement of Aleppo will continue. Moreover, according to Syrian military intelligence, the terrorists took advantage of the three-day truce for their own purposes. In a few days, when air strikes were not carried out on the positions of the militants and humanitarian corridors were organized, about 8 thousand militants were transferred from the province of Idlib to the south of Aleppo, to the Khan Tuman region, and to the north of the city, to the Kafr Hamra region, from the province of Idlib.

Eight thousand armed men is at least 5-6 motorized rifle regiments. As a graduate of a military school, I am well aware that the transfer of such a number of militants from one area to another is almost impossible to carry out covertly. In addition, training, arming, equipping, providing ammunition, provisions, and medicines require a serious mobilization of the “rear services” and the organization of an uninterrupted supply of the “rebels” with everything necessary for combat operations.

Why the West is silent about this, I can understand. But why is Russia silent about supplying militants? Don't want to spoil relations with Turkey?

If you recall the map of Syria, the province of Idlib, controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra, borders on the east with the province of Aleppo, on the south and west with the provinces of Hamma and Latakia, which are controlled by forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad. But in the north, Idlib borders on Turkey. And, apparently, it is from there that the militants are supplied and, most likely, reinforcements come in “manpower”. Perhaps the wounded are being evacuated to Turkey. But for some reason this "anti-humanitarian corridor" is surrounded by an information vacuum.

Why the West is silent about this, I can understand. The fact is that from the Turkish Incirlik air base, used by NATO, to the Syrian-Turkish border is a few minutes of flight. Aircraft of the US and Turkish Air Forces could instantly cut off the supply channels of Jabhat al-Nusra, which controls the province of Idlib, eliminating caravans with weapons, ammunition, medicines, and food even on Turkish territory.

But why is Russia silent about supplying militants? Don't we want to spoil relations with Turkey that are just getting better? Or is the prolongation of the bloodshed in Syria bringing some political dividends?

I don't have an answer to this question.