An attempt at rationalization

Understanding the rational meaning of Putin’s speech turned out to be quite difficult. Nevertheless, I still don’t have any other means of orientation in the surrounding reality - besides rationality. So, while the attempt is not torture, let's hurry.

I'll start with the form.

I always note with a feeling of deep satisfaction all the good things that happen in power. And in this case, it’s a very impressive copy not of the CPS events, but of the Republican Party convention in Dallas, for example. The TV picture is very similar. And the crowd "freely waves their flags." And the girls democratically raise their can-can limbs. And artists, TV presenters, hero-pilots with short, brutal speeches. In general, the frame was copied successfully.

Putin in a turtleneck looked quite convincing in this frame. His artistic talents have grown in 8 years no worse than the price of oil. It’s strange to even compare the modest 2000 and the uninhibited speaker 2007. It didn’t strain my ears anywhere - confidence, sarcasm, optimism... Everything was as it should be. Golden ratio.

Problems begin as we ascend from form to content.

First of all – WHY? Why is all this needed?

The ER rating, as all sociologists assure, is good at 60% in the region. Nothing can be fundamentally changed here - well, they can pump in another 1-2%, within the “measurement error of administrative resources.” In addition to them, a small faction will include the tame Communist Party of the Russian Federation and – questionable – the “legged” Socialist-Revolutionaries and “liberal Democrats”. ER simply has NO competitors. Why so much effort? To ensure the sunrise with your hands?

There are two obvious motives.

Directors and PR people's pipes are on fire.

In general, it is necessary - “so that it’s like people’s”.

Agree. And what does Putin have to do with it? Why does he PERSONALLY need this?

Since it is impossible to find a reasonable answer, the naive answer remains: LIKE. He wants to PLAY, he wants to rock.

Well, let's say... But I would like to think that there is also a calculation here. Which one?

Then we move on to a more serious topic - content.

Aggressive rhetoric would be understandable and natural if United Russia were fighting against strong competitors for votes.

But the same rhetoric in the absence of competitors... Powerful shadow boxing... Sweeps and air grabs on the tatami... An old joke: a man is doing push-ups in the park, a policeman watches this for a long time and finally says: “Monsieur, I’m sorry, but your lady left a long time ago.”

Why, since there are no competitors, can’t the speech be made positive? Great pensions - great apartments - great Russia - great Tomorrow... “Let there always be Sun, let there always be Putin, let there always be Oil!” “We wish you happiness, happiness in this big world...”

Where did the jackals come from in Moscow? Such products of global warming...

No, it is possible that the embassies also made a request. In fact, you come out and... a flock of jackals! You'll get scared here. But, in the end, if such a problem exists, then it is a) purely Moscow, and not all-Russian b) should be solved through the integrated efforts of the police, ecologists and livestock specialists, and not at party congresses, isn’t it?

In general, the “jackal theme” is very mysterious.

For one and only reason: WHY DO HUNTERS DO THIS?!

It’s clear that no one feels sorry for the jackals. Yes, here’s the thing: after the start of the hunt, how could the hunters themselves not shoot each other! There is such experience. And although the details have long been forgotten, the two-digit number “37” has somehow become ingrained in the subconscious of the nomenklatura.

So I don't think we heard the sound of a bugle promising a witch hunt. Don't think.

I don’t have a tragic feeling of an approaching Dictatorship. I don’t believe in “Triumph of the Will” - in my opinion, the “will” is where the biggest problems lie. And it seems to me that “they” themselves understand this.

Therefore, I write everything that follows because I do not consider “Putin’s Plan – Dictatorship.”

If so, why this aggressive and repressive rhetoric? Who to mobilize against the “enemy image”?

The SPS actually has 1% of potential voters. They have golden voices, or what?! At most, 1000–2000 people will take part in the “Dissent Marches”. Is this the level of alarm for the president?! Is this a threat to the “Orange Revolution”?!

So, we are not talking about any “defense”. Putin is not afraid - there is no one to fear. And he does not consider it his task to intimidate “jackals” (except perhaps as a side effect).

No, there's something else here.

What ?

Energy is being pumped up, another imitation of “machismo”. The same as the obligatory attacks against the West, etc.

Again - why? (I repeat, I consider the “dictatorship” option unrealistic.)

Whose energy is Putin warming up? Electorate? Yes, they will vote anyway, but you can’t cast the ballot twice.

Perhaps the answer should be sought in another passage.

“Think about it, in the next few months we will have a complete renewal of state power in Russia.”

Dear author of “Hedgehog”, Mr. “Souvarin” has already written about this. But – please forgive me – his “thoughts” on this particular issue seemed a little superficial to me.

Meanwhile, there is food for thought. There is also a call to “think about it.” Let's follow!

First. “A few months” is obviously March 2008, the presidential elections.

“Update” means – once again! – that there will be NO THIRD TERM. This is obvious.

Secondly, what does “FULL UPDATE” mean?

Putin hardly wanted to emphasize that the president will not be replaced “halfway.”

What does FULL update mean?

One more “handwriting decoration” and that’s it.”

Maybe. Anything is possible – as always.

But since EVERYTHING is possible, then it is possible that there is some serious meaning behind these words.

What could we be talking about?

It is clear - about changing the DESIGN of the vertical. On changing the balance of power functions. Simply - about the “redistribution of the vertical” in favor of the Duma, and, accordingly, “United Russia”.

A topic that is endlessly discussed these days.

Putin heads the party.

The party controls the Duma 100%.

The powers of the Duma have been expanded.

Putin thus controls the government and becomes superior to the Kremlin.

Putin remains a “national leader”, and the country is moving towards a “parliamentary republic”. With a monochrome parliament.

Here is one of the most popular coffee grounds drawings today.

And Putin is in place, and “United Russia” is in the pocket, and updated, and left - all the tangles have been unraveled.

More than that. In this case, the pumping up of energy is more or less understandable: what is needed is not just a victory for United Russia, but a Super Victory: not by the number of votes, but by the Roar of these votes, their pathos. You still can’t increase the number much (and there’s nowhere), but the “timbre of voices” can be changed.

It is not the size, but the quality of victory that changes.

Putin is “warming” not the electorate, but his party. Trying like this, against such “enemies” (there is no time to sculpt others, and there is no need - these will do) to pump up the Party’s muscles, to give hunting meaning to its dull look. Somehow arrange this mass.

Brutal Victory of the mobilized party. Such a Party will no longer become just “the most expensive male choir” - such a Party will have a face (of Putin), political will (in victory over a virtual enemy) and other attributes.

This is how the transformation into a “parliamentary” state occurs.

I'm afraid that if this option is implemented, we will get a DISASTER. Not just a return to the contradictions of 1991-93 between parliament and the president, but something much worse. Both for United and for the rest of Russia. And for Putin personally.

Why?

In short: this would mean the dismantling and collapse of the “vertical” in the complete absence of any other mechanisms of governance and self-organization in the country.

We add to this the mood in society - smug nationalism, anti-Western psychoses, “phobias of the 1990s” and we get that only a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT RUSSIA will be able to take advantage of the possible CHAOS, the one for which “Stalin-Beria-Gulag” is not at all discarded banter, not “ funny,” but a deep gut instinct.

Okay, here I risk falling into my usual intellectual complexes - and I will not develop this topic.

I'll say a few words about something closer and more real.

Why is the “party-parliamentary” or “party-corporate” state in Russia unviable?

Because the “vertical” cannot be transformed. The system is so ridiculous and fragile that it can still (with a creaking) endure a change of head. But it is not adapted to serious changes - like the Soviet System, say.

First. Today the Duma is directly subordinate to the Presidential Administration. With the transition to a parliamentary republic, this connection is broken. Who will the parliament “submit to”?

That's the question! - the reader will say. The question of a true slave! How to “obey whom”?! To the law! Democratic voting procedure! Haven't you heard of this?

We heard.

Will THIS wonderful Duma obey these wonderful things? So to say “from Saul to Paul”?

No. This number won't work. A new “Administration” will simply arise - let’s say, the Administration of the Party Leadership, so as not to say a new “Central Committee”.

Great.

But the president has the intelligence services behind him. And what about the party leader? Personal authority? Millions of votes? "Putin's plan"?

By the way, about authority.

Putin's authority is determined by his functional place - the Tsar. Yes, unlike Yeltsin, Putin corresponds to the popular idea of ​​the Tsar and fits this archetype. The authority of a place does not contradict the authority of a person, but complements it. This is how the very “national leader” turns out - whether someone likes it or not, but this is so in the minds of millions. National leader, fused with the throne of the Tsar.

But the authority of the Party Leader will also be determined by his functional place! Only the place is different. Quite, completely different... When transferred from chair to chair, authority can crumble.

The authority of the leader of the party of bureaucrats will be corresponding - the authority of the chief bureaucrat. A good king can stand over bad boyars. A “good leader” standing “above” HIS party is too much even for our society.

Even in late Soviet times, the authority of the CPSU was simply negative. “Nomenklatura grunts”, “distributor”, “feeding trough”... Anyone had authority - they respected military power, the State, hockey, even the KGB. But not the “party”.

Then what happens?

The leader of the Party will command a) his party b) the Duma c) the government, relying on... what?!

This means that since there is little authority, material supports will be needed. We need new redrawings of the Constitution. The intelligence services should come under direct control of the Duma. They must be withdrawn from the Kremlin and go to Okhotny Ryad. Moreover, this is not done at once.

Those. over a fairly long period we have: the new president has no authority, and his position is constantly shrinking. The party has no authority - by definition. The Party Leader has remnants of his former authority, which are not increasing at all.

To whom do those same intelligence services report during this “transition period”? And not abstract ones, but ours, SPECIFIC in every sense. Those who today cling with their gilded hooks...

Imagine this ideal order and discipline?

But there are still regions.

But there are also Rosneft and Gazprom.

And there is also an army and a “suitcase”. The party leader (Chairman of the Duma) has the intelligence services, and who has the suitcase? The Supreme Commander-in-Chief?

But all this is just flowers.

But there is also this damn... country, with its eternal prices, medicines... some kind of pensions (what are THEM pensions for?.. Every month! Every month! And there is no end in sight...).

And these are flowers.

Berries - later.

If we manage to use some hooks to drag the special services under the Duma, i.e. under the Party, to somehow build a new Vertical, then...

Then what will be the authority of this new “Party-Parliamentary Vertical”?!

It will be low. Much lower than the Vertical itself.

The authority of the Party Vertical of 1917-89 rested on: heroic charisma (Revolution, Civil War, May 9), the myth of God-men (Lenin-Stalin), the myth of Ideology, absolute dictatorship and fear, the absence of any institutions independent of the party (including including the absence of private property).

Figure out for yourself which of these will be available to the new Party Vertical. But no one will limit the appetites of the new nomenklatura (not herself!).

Total. What do we get when we attempt such “Vertical reform”?

It's better not to talk.

The vertical is possible only with the White Tsar in the Kremlin at its head.

It simply cannot withstand any serious reforms.

The king can and should be replaced. It is impossible to rebuild the vertical.

And besides Vertical, there is only one thing left in the country - its shadow on the asphalt.

All.

Stability. Just don't breathe - please...