In the opposition

How to do opposition

December 19, 2016 Alexander Golts

“A miserable sight, just a heartbreaking spectacle,” said the donkey of IA-Ia. - They still can't. And some do not have to. You won’t write anything here. ” If you want, consider this an epigraph to the text about the Parnas Party Congress, or you can consider it an epitaph ...

The sluggish but successful attempts to ensure the leadership of the chief boss of the party Mikhail Kasyanov, the proud departure of those who disagree with the “usurpation of power”, which took place before, during and after the congress. The deeply substantial dispute of the Democrats about whether it was necessary to put forward in party lists of notorious nationalists and anti -Semites. The expulsion of the doubted and the solemn re -election of the faithful associates. I am ready to argue, after a while we will observe something similar inside the “Apple” party. There is no doubt that Grigory Alekseevich will suppress the opposition as confidently as Mikhail Mikhailovich. In order to get their own percent-that is, three percent of both parties (well, six percent, if we take on faith, discussions about the synergistic effect, which will inevitably make itself felt if the impossible happens, and Yavlinsky risk uniting at least someone in the name of our bright democratic future).

Due to the youth, some and the shortcomings of the formation of other representatives of the opposition, what is happening to them, seems to them to be tragic, the mistakes of leaders are incorrigible, and betrayal is completely unforgivable. In fact, nothing out of the ordinary happens. The normal problems of the democratic opposition in an authoritarian society at the time of the victory of the reaction, the onset of natural apathy of the population and the militaristic hysteria, inflated by official propaganda. Under these conditions, the opposition is in a super-heavy position not only and not so much because of the regime repression. The main problem is that, due to specific historical circumstances, the population is quite quite power and deeply indifferent to the values ​​of the aforementioned opposition. Under these conditions, “scatter and staggering” in its ranks, squabbles and betrayal are a completely natural phenomenon. To worry about this is the same as worrying about snow in December.

The answer to the question about the strategy and tactics of the opposition in this situation is much more complicated. Here on this, and not on an endless clarification of relations, it would be worth concentrating now. I suspect that the root of our problems is not in Vladimir Putin’s mode, but that, alas and ah, the vast majority of the people shares the prejudices and illusions of the main head of the country. So the opposition strategy, and not for years, but for decades, should be the enlightenment of fellow citizens. This is hard and ungrateful work, but without it, all the conversations about the arrival of democracy in our country will remain a concussion. Indeed, at every cool turn, Russian citizens will return to their convenient and cozy wildness.

Of course, of course, some sudden crises (“Black Swans”, as it is now customary to say), can overnight overlook the established views of Russians. However, the current state of the opposition does not give absolutely no chance that these parties are capable of fatal in moments to become an alternative to the current government.

That is why now it should be concentrated not on writing long documents containing banal accusations against the bloody regime and quite empty calls for universal protest unity. Currently, it is necessary to try to understand where the “black swans” can fly. It seems to me that serious shocks can be caused by either a sharp deterioration in the country's economic situation, or by the fact that the Kremlin, having overestimated the forces, will be involved in a large -scale military adventure. In this case, it is already necessary to seriously (without hoping the creativity of functionaries and their own brilliant tie) to do with professionals, primarily sociologists, work on slogans and calls that could be supported by the people in a crisis situation.

In this case, participation in the elections, about which the democratic public every time begins to intensively break spears, acquires a clear meaning. Mandatory participation in obviously dishonest elections is necessary in order to run into these slogans, to see how they work. And how party activists behave, how much they are capable of public activity.

Finally, it is impossible to completely exclude (although it looks incredible now) that as a result of some tough crisis, the Kremlin will try to sharply change the development trends. In the event of a new “perestroika”, of course, to develop clear programs for the development of the country.

It should be understood that such a strategy does not guarantee victory at all. It's just that everything else makes sense ...

Photo: Russia. Moscow. December 17, 2016, the leader of the Party of People's Freedom (Parnassus) Mikhail Kasyanov (left in the back of the back of the PARNAS Party Congress. Alexander Shcherbak/TASS