Southern Front

Well, dear fellow citizens, collect your sons on the road - pack them duffel bags. Yes, do not forget to put warm linen - at night in the mountains it is cold even in the summer. We will fight. With whom? How with whom? With Georgians, clear. Why should we fight Georgians? And this is already, dear fellow citizens, sorry, not your dog business. This is called "Protection of the geopolitical interests of Russia" in which you do not mean anything.

Now, if it seems to someone that I am joking or deliberately condensing the colors, then nothing like this-I sincerely believe that the current situation in Russian-Georgian relations leads straight to a full-scale armed conflict.

Last week, the Russian Foreign Ministry unexpectedly stated that it was necessary to respect not only the “territorial integrity of the sovereign states”, but also the “right of nations to self -determination”. You can argue with this statement, we can agree, but it is important to understand what it was expressed in connection. This is not an invitation to an abstract political science discussion. This is the reaction of our authorities to the desire of the leadership of South Ossetia to join Russia. The historical surveys of the president of South Ossetia Edward Kokoita led to amazing results - he unexpectedly found out that the territory had never left Russia to his territory. Well, it is necessary, as everything is successful. However, a referendum can also be held in order to comply with procedural formalities, at which 100% of the inhabitants of this unrecognized republic in a single impulse will speak out for joining Russia. However, what is the connection, if it is our territory? It is just about the restoration of historical justice.

Of course, against the backdrop of all this unification bacchanalia, the story with Chechnya somehow sags. In other words, bad analogies beg. Well, who now pays attention to some kind of analogies there? Especially when it comes to such a spirit of an underlying business as "collecting Russian lands." In the last years, everyone was squandered and squandered, and with the current owner, you see, the Russian land began to grow with new borders. And it is clear to our layman that it was not for nothing that the owner about the possible independence of Kosovo spoke out in the sense that this is a “precedent”. True, he did not decipher the thesis by his usual, but everyone is clear to everyone, what it was about. The fact that the boundaries of Russia with Georgia will change very soon, and it will pass ... where will it go? Well, suppose the Kador gorge. That is, we draw a vertical line from the main Caucasian ridge to the Black Sea and equip along this line of border posts. Why not? There is a precedent ... True, Vladimir Putin forgot to mention that no one was going to join another state. For example, to Albania. In other words, no one is leading about the annexation of foreign territories in the Balkans today and no one is conducting referendums there on this matter. But these are all the nuances. And the nuances are the same as analogies. Do not get hung on them.

In the meantime, it is possible to arrange a confusion with the replacement of the peacekeeping contingent, place modern weapons systems on the seemingly non-existing military base in the Gudauts, arrange a couple of provocations in the Georgian villages of South Ossetia, prescribe Alla Alkhanov to President Alkhanov that Georgia is about to attack Russia ... Yes, and (almost forgot) to deliver a crushing blow to the economy - Forever prohibit the import of Borjomi mineral water into our territory. And all this occurs against the background of anti -Georgian tantrums on the main television channels and stormy foaming in the patriotic deputies of the State Duma.

Here it is also necessary to understand that the current leadership of Georgia does not differ in a balanced approach in solving foreign policy problems. The guys gathered in it simple and hot. In other words, it is easy to imagine the situation in which they will want to, for example, to capture the southern portal of the Rock tunnel at some point. They will land the landing, kill the Ossetian protection and announce that they have restored control over the section of the Russian-Georgian border, which was agreed upon by all international agreements. I think there is no need to explain what will happen next. Then the war will begin.

Today, many experts relate to the fact that the meeting of Vladimir Putin with Mikhail Saakashvili, scheduled for June 13 in St. Petersburg, will be able to smooth out the situation to some extent. But let's remember how many such meetings have already been? And is it worth a lot to wait for two people who hate each other from negotiations?

Now such a non-banal question: why such a dangerous escalation of Russian-Georgian relations is needed by Russian leadership? So clear why.

We know about our power that it is usually committed to a proven course. Once the war in the Caucasus helped Vladimir Putin to become the most popular person in Russia, to gain unheard of power, and the whole group of a hitherto unknown colonels and generals from the KGB -FSB, whom Putin dragged, establish total control over the main resources of a huge country. Now, one must think, the Kremlin strategists have considered that the new armed conflict in the south on the eve of the next elected cycle will allow them to preserve all this. Well, in fact, what change of power can we talk about if war is blazing in the country? And there is no doubt that the propaganda machine will work at full speed - we will all go in patriotic ecstasy, which will help more easily survive inevitable losses. Then, of course, sobering will come, but when it will be ...

I remember that Boris Yeltsin specially resigned ahead of schedule, so that Putin’s image as a volitional and responsible leader did not manage to disperse to the presidential election. Now it’s clear that he was in a hurry.