Two spines

I would like to comment on two articles in “Hedgehog” regarding the Russian-Georgian war, so to speak, two hedgehog thorns.

Take the splinter out - or pick it out and leave it?

I liked the article by Alexei Makarkin - objective, calm. One can argue about the details - the portrait of Russian leaders is painted in too wonderful colors, but that is not the point.

In the main, the author is right.

To his question “Was there an alternative?” The honest answer is obvious - it wasn’t. In the situation that developed (if you like, “what it was brought to,” but you can’t turn back the movie!) on August 8 in Tskhinvali, Russia had only one alternative: either tuck its tail and run away—or begin “active self-defense.” The alternative, of course, is fake - why would huge Russia celebrate a coward in front of little Georgia? But then, when crossing the administrative border between South Ossetia and the “rest of Georgia,” a classic “excess of necessary defense” occurred, the transition of legitimate defense into aggression.

True, we must pay tribute - we didn’t go far, we didn’t reach the point of occupation.

Three days that shook the world

By the way. You can’t convince the paranoid, but for “semi-normal” fans of the American conspiracy theory, I advise you to think about this.

If - as professional Russian patriots assure us - the United States was asleep and saw the ruin of Russia, then what should they have said to their “agent Saakashvili” when giving him the order to start a war?

It’s unlikely that the United States expected the Georgian army to defeat the Russian army, right? Is it true. This means that the damned Yankees had a different calculation. Which one? Defeat the Russians not in a military-political sense, but in a moral-political sense.

In other words: if you lured the bear into a trap, lure it further, further, now let it get in with all four paws until it falls into our wolf hole! Without metaphors: dear Mishiko, just don’t go to any peace negotiations! Let the Russians take Tbilisi - just let them take it! This is where it ends for them: the trap has snapped, the brutal face of the aggressor bear is now visible to the whole world, they will never be washed off! As for Georgia - the Russians will leave, they won’t go anywhere, we’ll restore it, we’ll scrape it off, as for you personally - you are the main victim of the aggressors, and the plane, you understand, is waiting for you 24 hours, the engine is running.

According to this logic, the USA and the EU should have been “indignant”, but not offered any PEACEFUL EXIT, and Georgia should have retreated, but NOT ASKED FOR PEACE. But having driven the “crazy connecting rod bear” into the Georgian political and legal bag, all that remains is to tighten the string from above - and that’s it! Russia is an outcast, a generally recognized aggressor, rejected from the civilized world. Even if she (Russia) flees in horror the next day from Tbilisi, which is absolutely unnecessary for her, nothing can correct the picture.

The US and EU behaved in the DIRECTLY OPPOSITE way: they did everything in their power to IMMEDIATELY stop the war, before Russia caused irreparable damage to ITSELF. They did this, of course, not out of love for Russia, but simply because they are not interested in the death of Russia, but in maintaining the status quo in the world, they prefer a bad peace to a good quarrel...

They do not want to rock the existing System of world order - and the exclusion (or voluntary dropout) of Russia from this System would precisely mean such a rocking.

Messrs. Zhirinovsky-Dugins shouted “Russia - forward, at a gait, into the victory pit, with a song!”, The West screamed: “Come to your senses, back, back, before it’s too late!”

Fortunately, common sense and the instinct of self-preservation of Putin and Medvedev won. They didn’t jump into the victory hole... In the Caucasus, the system of world-political gravity received a push, but survived. The dynamic equilibrium was restored in the form of an eternal stalemate.

Well, okay - what happened is past.

Small chessboard

But something else is interesting: are Georgia and I DOOMED to butt heads ad infinitum? “Two sheep drowned in our river early this morning.” Or is there a chance - IF YOU DESIRE, of course - to get rid of this “Caucasian bag”?

Enemies! How long have we been apart?

Has their bloodlust gone?

How long have they been leisure hours,

Meal, thoughts and deeds

Did you share together? Now it's evil

Like hereditary enemies,

Like in a terrible, incomprehensible dream,

They are in silence to each other

They are preparing death in cold blood...

Shouldn't they laugh while

Their hand is not stained,

Shouldn't we part ways amicably?..

But wildly secular enmity

Afraid of false shame.

That’s why I liked Makarkin’s article because he honestly outlined the main, essentially the ONLY problem of Russia: AMBITION. National-state ambitions.

And, of course, not in relation to Georgia (what else!), but in relation to the United States, and the “West” in general. When fighting with Georgia, Russia was not so much “protecting the Ossetians”, not so much “teaching the Georgians”, but rather “showing the USA”. WHAT did you show? Armored... well, let's say it's a fig. "Take it out"!
Yes, the stakes for the parties to the conflict were DIFFERENT.
In the USA it is purely symbolic. Psychological, ideological, a little geopolitical.
Russia has more. “Physically” Russia was not threatened in principle. Georgia did not encroach on Russian territory, much less the existence of the Russian state, like, say, Iran did not encroach on the existence of Israel (by the way, maybe now some of the Russian patriots will understand a little more why Israel is so nervous about peaceful atomic research Iran: imagine for a moment that Saakashvili became interested in nuclear physics).
In the Caucasus, Russia has found not so much a geopolitical as a psychological springboard for the coveted direct rivalry: your Georgia is our Ossetia, your Saakashvili is our Kokoity (and here we are, and we’re king!). Are you (USA) stronger? On a global scale - yes. But we are closer! Force divided by distance is what matters! And our result is higher. Don't believe me? Now you'll see!
Saakashvili gave an ideal reason for the demonstration.

And the highest embodiment of these imperial ambitions, arrogant pride was the demand of the triumphant: “he will leave, from now on he will not exist. For this is what I desire.” How are you with Saddam, dear George, how are you with Saddam, my friend... Well, this issue, as you know, did not work, the triumph of will did not take place.

For Georgia, the stakes were QUALITATIVELY DIFFERENT: yes, there are ambitions, but there is also a question of the integrity of the state. Moreover, for Georgia (4 million inhabitants) the secession of Ossetia and Abkhazia (about 400 thousand population) is more painful than for the Russian Federation (140 million population) the secession of Chechnya (about 1.5 million). Moreover, for Ossetia and Abkhazia this is not just a game of pride, but a matter of life or death, in any case, a question of the existence of their statehood.

However, even “naked ambitions” are not the last thing for the state. These are not just complexes and personal-corporate vanity (although there is, of course, that too). National-state ambitions are an important element of the state’s self-preservation (just like pride is a useful thing for any person, both a fool and a smart one). And some of the current (USA) and former (Russia) Superpowers understand the role of ambition very well (even too much!).

Moral: Russia will NEVER give up anything, but its ambitions (moreover, keeping in mind that people’s lives have always been valued and are valued no more than wood chips for the fire of ambitions).

Precious suitcase without handle

Therefore, now I would outline the problem this way: can Russia, without losing face, get rid of the Ossetian-Abkhaz burden? Frankly speaking, Russia has no economic, no military, no other NEED in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There are only external and internal ambitions, and obligations to the citizens of these republics (they, as you know, are citizens of Russia). However, obligations to its citizens - if these obligations, again, do not relate to the Prestige of the State, Russia values ​​​​as cheaply as these citizens themselves...

And now, thanks to this ill-fated war, a crack has opened into which Russia can retreat - with its head held high!

Every cloud has a silver lining: for the whole world, for the EU, the SCREAMING ABNORMALITY of the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia has become clearly visible.

How should Russia behave?

First option. As before, DESPERATELY RESIST any foreign participation in the settlement. “No” to EU mediators. “No” to UN troops (or, God forbid, NATO). Only “ourselves”.

This means preserving the situation. There is no prospect except to support South Ossetia and prepare for a new conflict (for example, on the eve of the 2014 Olympics, so that it will definitely be disrupted). For South Ossetia and Abkhazia this means the same thing - a dead end. Catastrophic status quo. No chance of internationally recognized independence.

The only one for whom this is probably beneficial is Georgia. There remain, at least completely illusory, but theoretical chances of “preserving in their paper composition” these rebellious provinces.

In general, they picked out the splinter and left it until the next time.

This is not beneficial for Russia. VERY BENEFITABLE for Russian professional patriots! What else is there to scream about? Who should they fight without sparing the belly of 74 unknown soldiers? What to make money on? What is there to unite the nation on?

Second option. Completely change the paradigm. INTERNATIONALIZE the conflict as widely as possible. “Yes” to EU mediators. “Yes” to UN troops (and even NATO).

Gradually REMOVE the problem from YOURSELF - and shift it onto the shoulders of the international community! “Mow down” Ossetia and Abkhazia - transfer them to Kosovo rails.

This UNNECESSARY concern is disappearing (little by little) from Russia. Ossetia and Abkhazia have a real prospect of international recognition - light at the end of the tunnel. And Ossetia and Abkhazia become not a barricade between Russia and the West, but a field for cooperation, a bridge between them!

Russia is very profitable. The Russian imperialists have a sharp knife.

Well, let's see what (again, at least on the eve of the Olympics) the Kremlin will choose.

I was also interested in another article in “Hedgehog” and, so that, as they say, “you don’t have to get up twice,” let’s talk about it too - although the topic here is completely different.

Democratic brothers

The second article that caught my attention is the article by Andrei Illarionov.

I won't comment on the text.

You can agree with some things in the assessments and argue with others.

But that’s not what’s important, but the fact that THAT’S NOT what we’re talking about.

Andrey Nikolaevich!

It’s me or Makarkin, Golts or Latynina - free journalists, we can write about the situation in the country and the world, but not about ourselves.

You are claiming something more - the role of a POLITICAL LEADER. Is it true?

So here it is. I would like to hear from you (and your colleagues) not only about Putin, Saakashvili, Bush and Kokoity, but also about you, about ACTIONS (or inactions) - YOURS.

Yes, our liberal opposition is politically absolutely powerless. But physically, these people, thank God, exist, meet, do something...

The misfortune of Russia is that we have no politics at all.

There is the evil clownery of the Zhirinovskys. There is TV barking and roaring. There are tens of millions of patriotic public. And there is the Kremlin.

All. On the other flank there is silence. NO COUNTERWEIGHT.

“What a vile, dishonest trick!” - any opposition politician will exclaim. “It’s as if this Republic of Lithuania “doesn’t know” that we are banned from being shown on TV, that our mouth is gagged, that... what... what...”.

I know. Everyone knows.

And what? You have an alibi. Are you relaxed and having fun?

What should you do in this situation? The situation won't change, right? So there’s absolutely nothing to do?

This is the infantile position of infantile people.

Is it possible to at least come up with some kind of GENERAL document? Or are the authorities also interfering?

The Union of Right Forces says one thing, the United Front of Front says another, human rights activists say another thing... They don’t hear each other (here Illarionov speaks about himself and about himself, but remains silent about his colleagues in the Union of Right Forces). Ambition? How about the Kremlin and Tbilisi?

Even at such a moment - ambition, ambition, nothing but ambition. No? Am I wrong? Glad. Then what’s stopping you from at least saying something TOGETHER? Or like “And remember, my friend, what you deigned to say in 1999 about the revival of the Russian army in Chechnya? Well, not you, but your Chubais... Do you take your unbearable words back and publicly..." Oh-ho-ho... They forgot nothing to each other, did not understand anything... “And these people teach the authorities not to pick their noses”...

Again, “two sheep drowned in our river early this morning.” So they've ALREADY DROWNED! For a long time. Why fight now, at the bottom?

Further. But even in this situation, the leaders of the United Front continue to sit in some organizations next to Limonov and others, whom it’s completely ... strange to call.

Limonov is clear - FOR the war to a victorious end! National Bolshevik... “Let the army win!”

Question. Illarionov, Kasparov and Co. - also for the “Victory Parade in Tbilisi”? If “yes,” then cooperation with Limonov is logical. But non-cooperation with Dugin and Prokhanov is illogical.

If “no,” then why are you collaborating with these National Bolsheviks (and with whomever is much worse!)?

The answer “this is not a general political position, but a fight for fair elections” is laughed at by the chickens. And how - did you gain a lot? Big results? Did the end justify the means? I'm not even talking about the obvious - WHAT elections? When? Where? And further: during these “fair elections,” Limonov might have been elected somewhere, but certainly no one will choose his “liberal fellow travelers” anywhere... But that’s not what we’re talking about - everyone understands that there are no elections on the horizon no, and not expected.

In general, liberals are powerless not only where it does not depend on them, but also where it COMPLETELY depends on them - in their purely INTERNAL affairs.

And here something clear is not visible at all.