Around Russia

The topic of the collapse of Ukraine is no longer a taboo

January 20, 2014 Fedor Lukyanov

Last Sunday was marked by mass clashes in Kyiv between supporters of European integration and law enforcement forces. In response to the use of light-shum grenades and grenades with tear gas, the demonstrators burned four police buses and two trucks, threw the police with stones, sticks and bottles with Molotov cocktail. The Opposition Party Light Vitaly Klitschko, who tried to prevent clashes by returning to the Euromaidan, turned to President Yanukovych, urging "stop the war against citizens of Ukraine" and "not to follow the path of Chausko and Gaddafi." Later he went to Yanukovych’s private residence in Mezhigorye for a personal meeting with him. During the meeting, Yanukovych agreed to negotiations with the opposition.

Until the last events, even in December, there were no such frankly aggressive performances at all, or they were episodic. To date, part of the protesters has stood out, which frankly hopes for destabilizing the situation with power methods and “checks for strength” law enforcement agencies that are faced with a very unpleasant dilemma. Because if they do not react, then they will demonstrate weakness, and this is a very powerful catalyst for protests, and if they react too hard, this can cause response and, accordingly, the same result.

At the same time, the situation has not changed meaningfully. What exactly the protesters achieve, except for this general destabilization, is incomprehensible. The so -called "leaders of the Maidan", the leaders of political parties, who, all this time, seemed to have performed the functions of the guide force, seem to lose control. The fact that Yanukovych addresses them means that he is trying in this way to smooth out the voltage, but for themselves they are now a variant of some kind of agreement, a compromise with power is necessary. Because otherwise, in the protest movement, the top will be taken by radical, maybe even extremist forces, and they do not need either Klitschko or Yatsenyuk, they only interfere with them. The situation is unpleasant for everyone, and, it seems to me, some very cunning maneuver should now be made from the authorities to bring down this aggressive wave and draw the opposition that is ready to talk in the next viscous negotiations is not clear about what. This is what the Ukrainian political elite is constantly doing.

I have not heard any position of Russia on this subject, the West’s position was almost gone, only some separate statements, for example, a recording on Twitter, Assistant Obama. Yanukovych does not cause sympathy at the West, because at the end of the year he frankly threw the Europeans, in a cynical form at the last moment refusing to sign the contract. But at the same time, many in the West, especially in Europe, understand that if destabilization goes further, then there will be nothing good in Ukraine. There is simply nowhere to take some new, fresh political stream, and the deterioration of the situation is simply guaranteed. And then what to do, how to stretch Ukraine? It’s just not very convenient to take and distant, Russia, in case of changes, will, of course, call all its promises of financial assistance, and no one knows how to do with a large country in the center of Europe and immersed in chaos.

Right now, considering the situation in which Ukraine will break up at some point is not so simple. There is no forces that officially and actively raised a voice in favor of separation. But the fact that they are not now does not mean that they will not appear at all. Starting from November, the theme of the division of Ukraine, which had previously been a taboo before, was not discussed and not raised, it became not that legitimized, but part of the discussion. Not yet practical, but intellectual. This was not before, this was not in 2004. And if this theoretical possibility is allowed not only in Russia, where it has long been talked about, but also in Ukraine itself and in Europe, for which this option is undesirable, but it is possible, respectively, that this idea will gain strength.

Photo by ITAR-TASS / EPA / Sergey Dolzhenko