Shoot yourself in the foot

First, Vladimir Putin’s Munich speech, and then the statement of the Chief of the General Staff, Yuri Baluevsky, revealed to me a terrible secret that had tormented me for about two years. Let me remind you that first the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and then his chief military adviser said that Russia was ready to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The secret was that for some time now Russian officials had been speaking as if the treaty had long ceased to apply.

Just two years ago, I had the misfortune of participating in a discussion with a very passionate Duma lady, who literally foaming at the mouth predicted: Ukraine’s entry into NATO would inevitably result in the appearance of enemy missiles capable of reaching Moscow in 3-4 minutes. I tried to explain to the lady that the missiles she was talking about were destroyed about twenty years ago - in accordance with the Soviet-American treaty. The lady, let’s give her credit, was not at a loss and immediately said: “You know the Americans, they are ready to withdraw from any treaty at any time.”

Further more: last summer, at an international seminar, a senior Russian diplomat quite seriously argued that the American missile defense position, which could be deployed in Poland, could threaten Russia. After all, a representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated quite seriously, in addition to missile defense system interceptors, the Americans can deploy medium-range missiles there. And again, these arguments hung in the air - for the simple reason that these missiles simply do not exist. After all, according to the same agreement, they were destroyed as a class.

And now Russia itself declares that it does not exclude withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Nuclear Forces (INF Treaty). In reality, this means that Moscow, which was in dire need of material confirmation that it is under threat from NATO, is itself, on its own initiative, allowing a potential adversary to acquire means of attack. From a military point of view, this looks completely absurd.

Russia, by burying the INF Treaty, thereby opens the possibility for the United States to deploy intermediate-range missiles. All this takes us back to the situation of the 80s. Then Soviet SS-20 Pioneer missiles could reach targets in Western Europe. And American Pershings and cruise missiles had the ability to reach Moscow in a matter of minutes. It was this circumstance that forced Moscow to sign the INF Treaty: the US “Euromissiles” were essentially strategic and had the ability to strike the entire European territory of the USSR. It is appropriate to recall that at that moment the USSR had an established production of medium-range missiles. Currently, although the Commander-in-Chief of the Strategic Missile Forces, General Nikolai Solovtsov, promises to “solve the problem” in the event of withdrawal from the INF Treaty, Russia does not have too many resources to resume production. Let me remind you, for example, that initial plans to create and deploy the first divisions of the Iskander tactical missile were thwarted.

Thus, if we translate the political statements of domestic leaders into the language of real possibilities, it turns out that with their own hands they are creating a military threat for Russia, to which our country is unlikely to be able to adequately respond.

As one might assume, the calculation is based on the fact that the Americans, who certainly did not expect Russia to withdraw from the INF Treaty, will immediately enter into lengthy negotiations with it on nuclear issues. It is precisely the resumption of such negotiations that Moscow has been seeking from Washington in recent years. From the point of view of Kremlin bosses, such negotiations sharply increase Russia's authority, certainly returning it to the position of a superpower that negotiates on an equal footing with the United States.

The Chief of the General Staff links the possible withdrawal from the INF Treaty with the need to respond to the deployment of the American missile defense system. If the United States intends to deploy interceptor missiles in Europe in order to demonstrate that there are still states following in the wake of its policies, then Russia clearly intends to intimidate these states. It's no joke to suddenly find yourself in the crosshairs of Russian nuclear missiles. It must be said that thirty years ago the Kremlin hoped that the appearance of “Euromissiles” would inevitably lead to a split between the United States and Western Europe.

However, I repeat, this tactic can only work if the Americans, preoccupied with problems in the Greater Middle East, do not decide that a serious response is necessary. If they believe that Russia actually poses a military threat to European NATO countries, then they will respond as they did during the Cold War - by deploying missiles aimed at Moscow. And then the Kremlin bosses will be like an awkward cowboy who, while taking out a Colt, shot himself in the leg.