Around Russia

"Iron Lady" of Ukraine

February 5, 2010 Avtandil Tsuladze

The Central Election Commission of Russia sharply condemned the calculation system
votes in the elections in Ukraine: “Elections are already tomorrow,
And the winner is still unknown! "

(Anecdote from the Internet)

Ukrainian elections traditionally attract increased attention in Russia. Against the backdrop of a dull Russian landscape, the performance played by Ukrainians looks like a real political blockbuster. In the first series, Yanukovych won. But the climax is precisely the second series. In a good Hollywood film, the final is always unexpected. Yanukovych’s chances no longer look as cloudless as three weeks ago. Instead of developing the achieved success, he does everything in his power to lose in the second round. The mistakes of Yanukovych and his headquarters are so rude that even a less experienced politician than Tymoshenko would not slow down to use them:

The first and second rounds of the elections are radically different in the plot, which at the headquarters of Yanukovych did not understand. The “Yushchenko factor”, which served as a motor for the growth of the rating of Yanukovych, disappeared. Yushchenko discredited the “orange revolution” so much and everything that was connected with it that Yanukovych was enough only to position himself as “Anti-Yushchenko” to earn points. But the "era of Yushchenko" is already in the past. Together with her, Anti-Yushchenko also goes into the past. In fact, Yushchenko and Yanukovych were a kind of “tandem”, but with a negative sign - they were not attracted, but repulsed from each other. Without Yushchenko, Yanukovych loses his symbolic component. He “flooded” Yushchenko in the first round, having fulfilled his main mission, and remained alone.

The factor of the quarrel Yushchenko and Tymoshenko is a favorable circumstance for the latter. If Tymoshenko was positioned as the “successor” of Yushchenko, then Yanukovych would easily defeat in the second round. But Tymoshenko twisted a more complex plot. Yushchenko ran into her and even insults a “homeless person”, and she generously does not hold evil on him, offering to support her as a democratic candidate. Yushchenko in an obvious image loss. At the same time, some of the deputies from the NO-SS support the initiatives of Yanukovych in the Rada (for example, the resignation of Lutsenko). Rumors are spreading that Yushchenko and Yanukovych are agreeing on something. Such "cooperation" clearly will not add popularity to the leader of PR.

After the second round, Yanukovych began to excessively stick out his proxy, wanting to mobilize the electorate. In Russia, too, "masks were dropped." If before the first round there was a game on the topic “We don’t care who will win, if only not Yushchenko”, now the official Russian media do not hide that they support Yanukovych. The prospect of a revenge warms the soul not only to Yanukovych, but also to Putin, who fell into an uncomfortable position after he congratulated Yanukovych twice in 2004. As a result of this re -positioning, Yanukovych reproduced the situation of five years ago. Then there was also a division of Ukraine into pro -Russian and pro -Western. The clash of the two Ukrainian ended with the "Orange Revolution." Yanukovych lost and repeats the previous mistake with enviable tenacity.

The failure to appear on television studies with Tymoshenko became the largest miscalculation of the headquarters of Yanukovych. Five years ago, the participation of Yanukovych in Debats with Yushchenko was also in question, but the political consultants managed to insist that it was necessary to go to the debate. And, by the way, Yanukovych spent the first debate with Yushchenko quite successfully. But the authority of Tymoshenko as a polemicist is so great that the PR headers Yanukovych were afraid to take risks. As a result, Tymoshenko turned to a “empty place” several times, which seeks to become the President of Ukraine. Being a talented actress, she permanently calculated her speech, clearly and without hesitation expressed everything that she planned and mocked Yanukovych, calling him a “coward”.

Yanukovych advertisers are trying to sculpt a monumental image from it according to Russian recipes. In Russia, none of the three presidents participated in television battles. The ideology is simple: this is not the royal thing to participate in the debate. Thus, in Russia they “exalt” the candidate of power over the others. However, in Ukraine, a completely different situation and a different mentality. This approach partially works in eastern Ukraine, but is completely impassable for the western. Ukrainians have no idea of ​​the king. And the idea of ​​power is very different from the Russian one. No matter how “monument” they portray Yanukovych, escaping from Tymoshenko, he is very losing in the eyes of voters.

Another significant difference between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych is that the first is directed to the future, while Yanukovych is still digging in the past. For Tymoshenko, the events of the “Orange Revolution” are a long -term stage. Yanukovych strives for revenge, to return the situation five years ago, but with the "right" result. And here is another significant difference between Russia and Ukraine. Russia today is a country converted to its Soviet past. And the pro -Russian candidate inevitably becomes a leader who personifies a return to the past. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are more directed into the future. The past was already overfed by Yushchenko, who got from the dusty chests such “heroes” of Ukraine, which it is better not to remember at all. Digging in the past, Soviet or the time of the Zaporizhzhya Sich, is already tired of everyone. And in the "orange" the past there is nothing to look for. Ukrainians are practical people and, living the real one, care about the future. Tymoshenko is sensitive to this request. She perfectly understands that Yatsenyuk and Tigipko gained their interest precisely thanks to the “European” image, and not some special personal qualities. Ukraine borders on Europe, about 7 million Ukrainians are there to earn money. Life according to European standards does not seem to Ukrainians an unattainable dream. If Tymoshenko plays with the mind ... Tymoshenko plays, promising integration with the EU, an increase in living standards to European, etc.

Tymoshenko began to really completely give apart at the finish line, as befits an experienced runner for long distances. Five years ago, Yanukovych was so confident in victory that he did not even consider it necessary to ride the regions. And this time he canceled a number of his trips, while Tymoshenko drives throughout the country. The bright, sparkling finish of Tymoshenko can level all the advantages of Yanukovych in the first round.

The so -called "Tigipko phenomenon." There is actually no “phenomenon”. Tigipko gathered the voices of the protest pro-Western electorate, which was missed by Yatsenyuk, who managed “thanks to” his PR campaign from 15% to fall to 7%. Tigipko began an active campaign a few months before the elections, did not make nonsense and simply picked up the voices that generously threw Yatsenyuk and Yushchenko. If Tigipko does not provide anyone before the second round, then he risks losing his political capital. As a banker, he cannot but understand that he received a “profit” due to the fact that he bought up the necessary “shares” in time. But after the elections, when the issue of power will be resolved, Tigipko’s “shares” will crawl down sharply. To sell them Tymoshenko or Yanukovych at the same price will be much more difficult. There will also be difficulties with Yanukovych because five years ago after the mess began, the chief of staff of the leader of Tigipko ran somewhere, lay down to the bottom. It is unlikely that Yanukovych wants to rely on such a “reliable” prime minister. With Tymoshenko, an alliance is possible, even if temporary. She is a rather flexible politician to conclude alliances when it is profitable. Tigipko will make it possible to become a real political “heavyweight” and begin to prepare for the next presidential election.

Yanukovych adequately carries the title of “Ukrainian Chernomyrdin”, confusing the genocide with the gene pool and making discoveries in literary criticism: the poetess Anna Akhmetova, the great Ukrainian poet Chekhov. Even against the backdrop of all the annoying Yushchenko, Yanukovych looks wild. The President seems to represent the country in the external arena. They chuckle in the Ukrainians (especially in Russia), and with such a president they will simply vine. It hurts the pride of Ukrainian citizens. The competent and diplomatic Tymoshenko successfully represents Ukraine in international negotiations as a prime minister and will cope with the role as president. The factor of the national pride of Ukrainians will play in the second round a very significant role.

Too active "intercession" of the deputy PR Anna German also goes to Yanukovych in minus. She tried to prove to journalists that Chekhov wrote “Poznaya Poetry”, she told what happiness for a woman to cook in the kitchen (after Yanukovych “sent” Tymoshenko to the kitchen), etc. The voters have a feeling that Yanukovych cannot answer for himself and a woman is blown up for him. Tymoshenko-German fight sometimes obscures the confrontation of Tymoshenko-Yanukovych. This is emphasized by the glory of a non -self -state policy that has long been fixed behind Yanukovych. Yanukovych will be weak, controlled by the president, and during the crisis, this is simply dangerous for the country. The situation in which Ukraine is located requires tough solutions and actions. Tymoshenko, who has a reputation as an iron lady, has much more chance of taking the president’s post. Margaret Thatcher at one time took the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain in a period when the problems that have accumulated in the country seemed insoluble. But Thatcher coped. She showed herself to be an outstanding crisis manager and it was precisely thanks to this that she became a legend. Tymoshenko refers to the same type of female politicians. Crisis, difficulties are an incentive for her action. It is mobilized, concentrates all its will and goes to the intended goal. Crisis times give rise to a request for tough and purposeful politicians. In a pair of Tymoshenko-Yanukovych, the role of the “crisis manager” of the Iron Lady of Ukraine is much more than its uncertain opponent.

But perhaps the biggest mistake of Yanukovych and his headquarters is a venture with changes in the election law. A whole special operation with brawls and the capture of the rostrum in parliament, organized by the "Party of Regions", another pass towards Tymoshenko. In one of the articles, I wrote about the threat of “Ukrainization” of Russia and the “Putinization” of Ukraine . Putin said at a meeting of the State Council that he would not allow the “Ukrainization” of Russia. The statement is belated, since "Ukrainization", i.e. The unbalance of the decision -making process and the management of the system as a whole is already in full swing in Russia. It is enough just to follow the news in the press.

In Ukraine, the ghost of Putinization is embodied by Yanukovych. His methods and practical steps to “tighten the nuts” even before he became the president, they should not leave the Ukrainian elites in doubt what awaits them if Yanukovych wins. In addition, the clumsy actions of Yanukovych give Tymoshenko an excuse to organize the "Maidan", which she has already stated.

Most likely, the Maidan will be not only in Kyiv, but also in other major cities of the country. “Bastille capture”, apparently, is not planned. But rallies, exacerbation of the situation to the limit will allow Tymoshenko to solve the main problem - to mobilize the electorate in his support. If it were not for Yanukovych's “gifts”, then it would be much more difficult for her to do this. Yanukovych turned out to be a gallant gentleman. In the next weekend, we will find an exciting sight, next to which the most box office Hollywood blockbusters fade. "Ukraine Pickchers" represents ...

PS how Tymoshenko herself perceives the election storyline from the entry in her video blog of December 12. To preserve the color, we will give an excerpt in the original language: “... Vіdraza Pisl Efir on the Ukrainian TRK traveled to the NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIS, there were showed the documentary Film about the left -wing pride in the tanzani. PISLAL KADRIV WITHOULL HARDING IN THE ZEBRA, announcer behind the scenes, saying: "Yak Bachita Samtsi, they were old, not to be brought to the sovereigns of the il building of the Bid." I was overwhelmed by such an analogy, I whimpered the TV I lied to be spaty ... ” Having signed changes to the election law, Yushchenko compiled Tandem Yanukovych. According to Tymoshenko, the two “lions” will now have to surrender power.

Photos of RIA Novosti