Islamist strike

The death of Benazir Bhutto on the eve of possible success in the parliamentary elections in Pakistan is a severe blow to the positions of her own Pakistan People's Party, President Pervez Musharraf, and the United States. The most common version – that Bhutto’s murder was the work of Islamic radicals – also seems to be the most likely. The method of murder—suicide bomber—and the ancient principle of “who benefits” speaks in its favor.

At the same time, the argument lying on the surface - the Islamists killed Bhutto in order to prevent a woman from becoming the head of a Muslim state - looks only like a possible cover for the true goals of the murder. A woman holding top positions in Islamic countries is not something out of the ordinary. Suffice it to recall the example of Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan), in which for the last decade and a half the main competitors in the struggle for power have been women - the daughter of the first leader of the state and the widow of one of the subsequent presidents. In this case - as in Pakistan - the woman is perceived as the head of the clan, having assumed these responsibilities after the death of the previous male leaders. It is no coincidence that many devout Muslims were ready to vote for Bhutto, seeing in her the successor to their father, the charismatic prime minister of the 70s, overthrown in a military coup and soon died on the scaffold.

Bhutto's death discredits Pervez Musharraf - at a minimum, he is accused of failing to ensure political stability in the country, and at maximum, of involvement in the murder. Logically speaking, the death of one of his main political opponents was extremely unprofitable for Musharraf - now he is interested in legitimizing his regime, in recognition from the West, which very negatively reacted to the introduction of a state of emergency in the country in early November. The only opportunity for Musharraf to “wash away” accusations of dictatorship was the speedy holding of truly competitive elections with the participation of at least one of his two main rivals – former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. Moreover, if the conflict between Musharraf and Sharif was systemic in nature - the first overthrew the second by carrying out a military coup, then with Bhutto there were opportunities for compromises, including in the format “Musharraf is president, Bhutto is prime minister,” which the Americans actively lobbied for. Let us remember that it was under Musharraf that Bhutto was able to return to the country that she had left before he came to power. Now, the possible victory of Musharraf’s party in the elections will be perceived as a grave injustice not only by Bhutto’s numerous supporters (and, accordingly, by all other opponents of Musharraf within the country), but also in the West. His legitimacy as a leader of the state will obviously be damaged.

For the Pakistan People's Party, the murder of Bhutto is not just the death of its long-time leader, who was able to successfully appeal to the masses who see her as the “daughter of a martyr.” These masses, for the most part, do not believe the accusations of corruption and incompetence that have been leveled in considerable numbers against Benazir and those close to her. Even during her lifetime, they believed that all these accusations and even the court verdict were the result of political intrigues of much less popular opponents who sought to politically destroy the bright leader. Now they will become even more firmly established in this opinion - after the assassination, Benazir will become a legend (like, for example, Indira Gandhi, who was treated very controversially in Indian society during her life). The problem is that in the near future it will be extremely difficult for Bhutto’s party to nominate an adequate successor who will be able to lead it to victory in the elections. Let us remember that both Benazir brothers died long ago - one under mysterious circumstances in exile back in the 80s (it was believed that he was killed by agents of General Zia-ul-Haq, who at one time insisted on the execution of Bhutto the father), the second was killed in 1996, being one of the radical opponents of his own sister. As for Benazir’s husband, he was subjected to the same corruption charges as his wife (and then to a greater extent - critics for his penchant for kickbacks “pasted” the nickname “Mr. Ten Percent” to him), but lacked her charisma. Their son is only 19 years old, so to begin a serious political career he still needs to at least complete his education.

Finally, for the West, Bhutto was one of the main political allies in Pakistan. From a young age, educated at Harvard and Oxford, she was fascinated by modern democracy and saw the West as Pakistan's natural partner. Bhutto twice came to power through free elections and, despite the corruption that plagued her government, championed democratic values ​​and opposed authoritarianism and radical Islamism. The popular Bhutto was the “insurance” of the West in a situation where the Musharraf regime was quickly losing its popularity - now such schemes are no longer relevant. Let us recall the special significance of Pakistan for the Americans, given the unresolved Taliban problem and the de facto nuclear status of this country.

It is unlikely that in the foreseeable future alarmist scenarios of fundamentalists coming to power in the country and being able to gain control over nuclear weapons will be realized. More likely something else. The weakening position of the Musharraf regime and the possible destabilization of the political situation could be taken advantage of by groups in the Pakistani military leadership that are more critical of the West and share Islamic values ​​to a greater extent than the current president of the country. Let us note that the army in Pakistan, unlike Turkey, is not a guarantor of the preservation of the secular character of the state - on the contrary, it was under the authoritarian regime of General Zia-ul-Haq that Sharia penalties were introduced in the country.

At the same time, even “Islamized” generals will not allow fanatics in any way connected with Al-Qaeda and other terrorists to power (and, accordingly, to a nuclear bomb), but if they succeed, the Islamists will receive much more significant opportunities for political activity than now, including to recruit new supporters. It is possible that the real reasons for the murder of Benazir Bhutto are connected with this.

The author is vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies