Around Russia

What is after bombing?

August 28, 2013 Alexander Golts

It seems that the Laureate of the Nobel Prize of the World Barack Obama is ready to start the war, already the second during his presidency. US Secretary of State John Kerry said that he had practically no doubt that the Assad regime is behind a barbaric chemical attack, as a result of which several hundred people died. There is no forgiveness to this, the head of the American diplomatic department emphasized. In Washington, they promise to provide indisputable evidence of the guilt of the Syrian regime in this atrocities in the near future. US Secretary of Defense Chuck Heigel assured that the Pentagon had completed the preparation of several possible scripts of a military response and the armed forces were waiting only for the presidential order. Experts believe that we can, first of all, be about the air operation on the model of those that were undertaken in 1999 against Yugoslavia or in 2011 against the Gaddafi regime. A massive missile and bomb strike is applied to military facilities, centers of management and communications. Obviously, ships armed with cruise missiles and planes from two aircraft carriers located in the region will be involved in the operation. The seal reports that the transfer of aviation began to the British Air Force base in Cyprus. It is likely that a certain number of combat aircraft will be transferred from Western Europe to the base of a fig in Turkey. In addition to London, the readiness to take part in the operation has already expressed Paris and Istanbul. The concentration of forces will require one and a half to two weeks. It seems that it is so much time that separates us from the new war.

Western leaders who intend to carry out the operation itself within two days, consider it possible to get rid of Assad who has bored with them bypassing the Security Council (since it is clear that Russia and China take advantage of their right veto). There is no doubt in the military success of such an operation. Similar scenarios are worked out to the smallest detail. If the questions remain, it is only about what will happen as a result of airstrikes on bases where chemical weapons are stored ... The Syrian army with its Soviet weapons produced 30 years ago can hardly withstand a massive aviation attack. I note, however, that some Russian experts believe that the upgraded C-200 and Buk-M2 complexes may create problems for NATO aviation. But even in this case, the only result will be the extension of agony for a day or two. As for the more modern S-300 complexes promised by Moscow, Damascus, as Vladimir Putin said recently, this contract was never implemented.

So, the forces of the anti -Asadian coalition await a completely predictable success. The main question is what will happen later. Ironically, just on the day when the first messages about the chemical attack under Damascus appeared, American newspapers published a very curious opinion: “The use of American military force can, of course, change the balance of power in Syria. But it will not be able to resolve the main historical, ethnic, religious contradictions that feed this conflict ... In Syria today it is necessary to choose more than one of the two sides (which side should become the United States - A.G. ) there are many different parties ... In my opinion, we must choose those who want to act in our interests. There are no such today. ” Do you know who owns this analysis that actually denies the usefulness and effectiveness of American military intervention even in the most limited form? The chairman of the committee of the chiefs of staff, General Martin Deminki, who is now in the sweat of the person, is making plans for just such a “limited” operation. This is a quote from a letter addressed to Congressman Eliot Enjel, who asked the most senior military, why not to conduct an air operation against the Assad regime. And just a week ago, the answer was: this should not be done.

Everything has changed after the use of chemical weapons. Honestly, I'm not at all sure that this is the work of the Assad generals. But to admit that the opposition is to blame for the what happened, for Western states today is completely unthinkable. After all, it turns out that they supported merciless killers. However, I suspect that the American administration perfectly understands all the risks associated with the military operation. The fact that after a wonderful victory the country will plunge into real chaos. That there is a risk of seizing power by extremists associated with al-Qaeda. That, finally, the Americans and their allies, completing with considerable labor and without glory, the war in Afghanistan, risk being even more than a firewall.

But nowhere to go. Today, only the lazy does not remember the words that Obama said about a year ago. The fact that the use of chemical weapons is a “red line” for the Assad regime. So, the alternative is obvious: to punish the regime that used poisonous substances and be involved in the civil war or to lower the fact that Assad ignored all warnings and threats. As often happens in world politics, there are no good solutions here. There are only bad ones.

A separate conversation about Russian politics. I must say that the head of the Russian foreign policy, Sergei Lavrov, is saying today quite correct and obvious things about the risks and unpredictability of the consequences of the Western military intervention. However, it is appropriate to recall that about a year ago, Senator Richard Lugar invited Moscow to make joint efforts with Washington to establish international control over Syrian chemical weapons. Then in Russia this proposal ignored. We, they say, completely trust the Syrian authorities and believe in responsibility. And if they tried to realize this initiative, you look, and Syria would not threaten air strikes today ...

Photo EPA/ITAR-TASS