Shared future

Publication date: June 14, 2004

It is symbolic that the presidential elections in Ukraine take place precisely in this anniversary year of the 350th anniversary of the reunification of Ukraine with Russia. With the reunification of 1654, in essence, the history of Russia as a European state began. In 2004, the two sovereign powers will once again have to decide how to build their relationship and what the common future of Russia and Ukraine will be.

The director of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies (IGPI) Vyacheslav Igrunov answers RJ’s questions.

RJ: Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, how do you assess the current level of economic interaction between Ukraine and Russia? What changes have occurred in this matter recently?

V.I.: If we talk not about the political component of cooperation, but about the economy, then there are reliable statistics, according to which our investments in the Ukrainian economy are constantly growing, the level of trade turnover is also growing at a significant pace, that is, the external indicators of this process are quite good. Recently, the volume of problematic issues has been reduced and restrictions on our trade turnover on both sides have been reduced. The situation here is pretty good. The problem is different: in Ukraine, in my opinion, there is a break in the previous paradigm, in which the absolute priority was orientation towards the West. If we look, for example, at the story of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline, its Western orientation was due to the dominance of Western pressure in Ukraine. Firstly, it was planned and built as an alternative to Russian oil pipelines, and for a long time all Ukrainian government experts insisted that it be used in direct mode, despite the fact that it had been idle for a long time. Russia proposed a reverse regime, which did not suit the West and, above all, the United States of America. Kuchma has recently taken unprecedented steps. Firstly, he absolutely firmly stated that Ukraine is interested in reversing the use of the oil pipeline, since if it is not used to pump Russian oil, it will turn into scrap metal. He fired those officials who resisted this, other officials themselves resigned, seeing the reorientation of Ukraine towards a single economic space with Russia. Therefore, here, in my opinion, it is much more important to observe this political component of our economic cooperation.

RJ : When did this favorable trend appear?

V.I. : The point is that this is not a progressive process. It has some sinusoids in its development, is unstable, and it cannot be said that today it is completely irreversible. But this trend towards improving the situation began, in my opinion, in 2001, after the Gongadze crisis. The initial steps were difficult to take during the Year of Ukraine in Russia, but then Ukraine moved in this direction more confidently.

RJ : What areas for the development of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia would you consider relevant today?

V.I .: Firstly, this is overcoming obstacles to Russian investment in Ukraine, this is the most important obstacle to cooperation. Secondly, the mutual removal of remaining trade restrictions between Ukraine and Russia. And most importantly, this is the development of cooperation in high-tech areas, which is impossible only at the level of private business; it must receive government support.

Although today Ukraine limits Russia's participation in economic life, and privatization in Ukraine is carried out in such a way as to minimize Russian participation, we are nevertheless establishing relations with Ukraine step by step.

RJ : When, in your opinion, will it be possible to talk about the creation of a single economic space between Ukraine and Russia?

V.I.: So far it looks like a mythology. In order to talk about this seriously, not as political rhetoric - in this capacity it can and even should be used right now - if we talk about the serious development of the situation, then there are still so many obstacles that today I would not risk doing any some forecasts.

RJ : As you yourself noted and repeated in various interviews, in relations between Ukraine and Russia, politics precedes economics. Ukraine, according to the current constitution, is a presidential republic, so much in our relations depends on who will become the next president of Ukraine. There is an opinion that Russia makes virtually no effort to support pro-Russian sentiments in Ukraine, while the West, by all means, from diplomacy to the use of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and foundations , actively supports the opposition loyal to it. What is your opinion?

V.I.: Let's start with the fact that the West is indeed more active in Ukraine, and first of all, I would highlight the activity of the United States. I don't see much enthusiasm from European countries, with the exception of Germany. Germany is indeed quite active in Ukraine, as well as in Russia. But it is the United States that is exerting unprecedented pressure on Ukrainian public opinion. The United States has clear ideas about its national interests; it has clearly set the task of minimizing Russia’s presence in the Ukrainian space and is achieving this goal in every possible way. This is the goal of both interstate cooperation and the active work of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and American political strategists. Also, the election campaign will be strongly influenced by public statements by senior US officials and campaigns in the American press. All this will affect not only Ukrainian public opinion, but will also be reflected in the positions of many European media.

Russia does not conduct such work at all; Russia does not have a stable policy towards Ukraine; this policy either manifests itself or disappears as such. In addition, the political line is not always the same, sometimes there are unexpected zigzag deviations, so at times it seems that Russia is changing its orientation towards Ukraine. In any case, the state has not developed any special methods of working with Ukraine that would bring confident positive results in cooperation with this country. As for the use of public organizations, I can give one particular example. During the Year of Ukraine in Russia, many programs were implemented in close cooperation between the state and public organizations, in particular with my Public Council for Ukrainian-Russian Cooperation , but this interest faded very quickly. Here it must be emphasized that Russia is losing enormous opportunities to influence the Ukrainian situation. At the same time, I would not underestimate the resource of Russia’s influence on the situation in Ukraine. If you look at the recent negotiations with Ukraine, what brilliant successes Yanukovych is achieving in negotiations with Russia, then, of course, you will see that this is diplomacy planned by Russia, which is designed to increase the status of Yanukovych. And this armor-piercing weapon at a short distance is much more powerful than any work of Western NGOs. In addition, Russia has a powerful means of influencing Ukraine, which the West does not have - in Ukraine, half of the population considers Russian to be their first language . The Russian press and Russian television are a constantly present factor in Ukraine. And in this sense, Russia’s free channel of influence on Ukraine is incomparably greater than that of the West as a whole.

RJ : However, there are forces in Ukraine that are striving by all means to limit television broadcasting and the distribution of Russian media in Ukraine .

V.I.: If we talk about free broadcasting, then this is really true. State and private all-Ukrainian channels do not always provide enough Russian material, although the presence of the Russian language and Russian programs has increased in recent years. Nevertheless, 20% of Ukrainian television viewers watch almost exclusively Russian programs on cable television. In addition, human contacts do not stop, the printed press is spreading, so I would not say that Ukrainian restrictions limit Russia’s influence on Ukrainian political processes too much.

RJ : Is it possible to say that while the United States focused on supporting the Ukrainian opposition, Russia relied on the candidate Yanukovych?

V.I.: Of course, Russia is not closing the road to Yushchenko, and there are a number of Russian politicians who are leaving bridges for cooperation with him, since he is one of the two favorites in this race. However, speaking seriously, this is exactly the straw that is laid in case of a fall, and, as a rule, it is not laid in the place where one falls. If we compare this with the bet that the Russian authorities are making on Yanukovych, on cooperation with the Kuchma regime, it becomes obvious that such contacts cannot be compared in any way. Russia has made a clear bet on one candidate, and this applies not only to the authorities, this also applies to Russian society.

Interviewed by Olga Shlyakhtina