Trump is returning

At the first vote of the presidential campaign, which was held in Iowa, a confident victory among the republican candidates was won by Donald Trump

He broke the record of Senator Bob Doula, ahead of competitors by 30 percentage points. Until today, the largest gap on the republican coks in Aiova was 12.8 points. The final results are as follows: Trump –51%of the vote, in second place is the Governor of Florida Ron landing - 21.2%, close to it - the former US Ambassador to the UN Nicha Haley: 19.1%.

Iowa sends 40 delegates to a party conference at which the Republican Party will officially elect its candidate for the presidential election. According to the results of the primary elections, Trump received 20 mandates, landing - 9, Haley - 8. Three mandates at the Republican Congress received the Vice Ramasva.

Trump's convincing victory did not become a sensation. The 45th President, who achieves his return to the White House after the defeat 4 years ago, which he never recognized, promises to shake America again and is even more radically configured than in 2016. On this below.

For Trump, victory in November is also a matter of salvation from court persecution. He was brought in a total of 91 charges of criminal and civil lawsuits.

At the same time, 4 trials are underway, including his participation in the events of January 6, 2021. Trump was not included in the voting ballots in the primary elections in Colorado and Manu. On February 8, the Supreme Court will begin to hear his appeal and decide whether the former president can participate in the elections. The 14th amendment to the Constitution forbids to occupy public posts to those who participated in the rebellion. This can be regarded by Trump’s actions on January 6, 2021, when he called on his supporters to fight for the revision of the election-2020, which led to the assault and seized the building of the Capitol.

In this place, political scientists recall that of the 9 members of the US Armed Forces, three were nominated during the years of Trump’s presidency, which ultimately provides an advantage of conservative judges over liberals: 6 versus 3. In addition, if the Armed Forces nevertheless removes Trump (the decision will become mandatory for all 50 states), this threatens the country with global shocks. Armed supporters of the 45th president can protest very seriously. And then January 6 will seem to be a "children's matinee."

Ratings and anti -ratings

Over the past 4 years, Trump's nuclear electorate remained faithful to him. According to a survey of authoritative site 538, conducted among voters in Aiov, about 51% were ready to vote for Trump - 35 points higher than that of Nikki Haley. 538 is the number of members of the college of electors who choose the president and vice president on the basis of the results of the general vote, which will be held this year on November 5. The forecast has practically come true.

The question in the quince stood as follows: who will be the second and what will be the lag behind the leader? A week later, the primaries will be held-the primary elections in the state of New Gampshire, and according to the results of the first two votes, the picture of the presidential race will be significantly clear.

Previously, the journalistic stamp was to compare the elections in Ayov with the "start of the Great Political Show", which, of course, were elections in America. This time, in connection with a sharply complicated situation in the world - Ukraine, the Middle East, the threat of Taiwan - a comparison with the "show" is almost not used. The bets today are more high than ever, although I agree, these words also became cliche. But 4 years ago, the situation in the world from the perspective of today was almost idyllic.

The positions of the 46th President Joe Biden-the oldest head of state in the history of America-are very weakened today. According to the CBS News/YouGov survey, all three candidates from the Republicans would have won Biden if the elections were held today.

And although Trump is a clear favorite for receiving a presidential candidate at the Republican Congress, Nikki Haley shows the best result against Biden, ahead of the current president of 8 points - 53% of support against 45%. This is due to the fact that it has great support among moderate Republicans and independent voters than Trump and landing.

In rivalry with Biden landing, today it would receive 51%, and the president - 48%. And, finally, the choice between Biden and Trump - two elections - showed that 50% of the respondents would vote for Trump, and 48% - for Biden.

The president’s team says that surveys now mean anything, they say, too far from the election. But, according to sources in the White House, Biden is nervous of the latest ABC News/IPSOS survey, conducted on January 4–8, according to which only 33% of the Americans surveyed stated that they approve of his work-this is a record low in 15 years, since George Bush-Ml.

Features of Aiova

Unlike the primaries - the primary elections, where the regular voting process occurs, where you can vote by mail or vote ahead of schedule on a special area - in Ayov, the so -called Coks. These are party meetings held in churches, schools, gymnals, where citizens in a rather informal setting are debated with representatives of candidates. Agitation continues until the vote. But you can only vote personally, appearing at 19 hours local time for the site. Early or absentee voting is not allowed, with the exception of a small number of military personnel.

Only citizens who have registered themselves supporters of the party can vote, but, on the other hand, you can register directly on the site. The primaries are organized by state governments, coks - party activists. It is more convenient to vote on primaries, but coks are more informal and more affected. Due to the obligatory personal presence of voters, candidates also had to actively travel around the state for full-time meetings with voters.

According to ABC News, by Sunday, Trump made 35 personal stops in 21 days. The governor of Florida landing traveled all 99 iovi districts, having held 169 events in 61 days. And the businessman Viveko Ramasva, who eventually took 4th place, visited each district twice, spending 326 events in 89 days.

The three -million ai -aoiva, representing only 1% of the country's population, is a quiet agricultural, mainly a “white” state where religion plays a big role and full of evangelists. Such regions of the media call Trumpland - "land of Trump."

Here they are proud that they grow the "best potatoes in the world." Hence the former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev took out a firm faith that corn is the “queen of the fields”.

Snow "minus" weather with a strong wind evening on Monday was reflected in the turnout, especially in rural areas. This time about 110 thousand voters participated - the lowest indicator since 2000. Democrats, who have no serious alternative to Pare Joe Biden -Kamala Harris in the elections, decided to spend their cocus by mail. The results will fail only by March 5. But the result is understandable (although it does not please many supporters of the party) - Biden’s victory.

What the candidates promise

Trump is going to carry out the “dismantling of the deep state”, reprinting the decree of 2020, known as the “schedule f”. He wants tens of thousands of federal civil servants to go through a new test to continue the service. According to him, all “corrupt bureaucrats who turned our system of justice into weapons” and “corrupt figures in our national security and intelligence apparatus” will get.

Given Trump's anger in the FBI and federal prosecutors investigating criminal cases against him, if he returned to the White House, probably these people are waiting for retaliation. In addition to dismissal, Trump wants to deal with government officials who “merge” information to reporters.

Trump promises that the US immigration and customs service will conduct the largest deportation operation in American history. He will transfer to this agency thousands of military personnel who are currently deployed abroad, as well as federal agents, including from the Drug Control Department and the FBI. To restrain migrants, Trump said that he would refuse “citizenship by birth right”, he would accept a decree that will not allow federal agencies to automatically provide citizenship for children in the United States illegally.

Trump claims that in case of victory, he will “settle the conflict” between Russia and Ukraine even before the inauguration. According to him, he will cease the “endless stream of American treasures to Ukraine” and turn to European allies with a request to reimburse the United States costs to restore stocks. It is unclear whether he will insist that Russia leave the “new territories”. Trump said that Israel would support his war with Hamas, he would also continue to “fundamentally overestimate” the purpose and mission of NATO, which threatens the alliance with serious shocks.

The policy of Obama and Biden in the preservation of climate flies into the garbage basket.

Under the slogan “Storms, Baby, Storm” Trump says that he will increase oil production on state lands and offer tax benefits to oil, gas and coal producers.

He will cancel the proposed new restrictions on emissions, which will require that by 2030 at least 54% of new cars sold in the USA are electric. And again, according to him, the United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and stop subsidizing wind energy.

China and other foreign states are promised to increase trade tariffs by 10%. China is threatened with additional restrictions on trade within America and prohibitions on the acquisition of American enterprises.

Ron landing, whom journalists called “Trump Light”, also promises to reduce taxes and government officials, as well as the number of federal employees. “We are going to start cutting throats on the first day,” he said to the voters of Ayov. Critics questioned how much such expressions were ethical for presidential candidate. He promised to immediately declare a state of emergency on the border of the United States and Mexico.

To the question of the first debates of the Republican Party, whether he can send troops or special forces to Mexico to combat drug cartels and laboratories for the production of fentanil, landing replied: “Yes, and I will do it on the first day.” (I note that Trump ignored television debates, believing that his ratings allow him to do this.) “I am going to pick up all the decrees, rules, everything related to“ Baydenomik ”, I will tear this into the garbage bucket on the first day, where he and the place,” said the landing. For landing, rejection of Baydenomik means tightening federal expenses and weakening state regulation.

The landing recently said that the protection of Ukraine is not a “vital interest” of the United States. The other day, he “changed” and noted that he was not able to clearly state his thoughts about Ukraine, calling the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. But in the debate with Nikki Haley, the governor again repeated his main idea: protection against the penetration of illegal immigrants for him is more important than helping Kyiv.

Former Ambassador to the UN Hiley considers China to be "the largest opponent of America." She urged to stop trade relations with the country until Fentanil’s stream in the United States would not slow down. Due to an overdose of this synthetic opioid from China, the number of deaths of Americans aged 18 to 49 years is growing at a great pace. It is produced in Mexico from Chinese chemicals and transported from there to the States.

Haley differs from his Republican rivals support to continue assistance to Ukraine, coinciding with the position of the White House, who sees in this conflict the global threat of democracy in the world.

For the rest (whether it is the issues of illegal immigration, a ban on abortion, reduction of taxes and expenses) Nikki Haley - a typical Republican, only much more moderate than Trump and landing. Therefore, in the primaries, where independent voters can participate, she counts on their support, as well as on “moderate” democrats, who manage to vote for the “old Biden” for the second time. An important point: Trump competitors are going to amnesty the former president if the court of his guilt in the events of January 6.

A week later, in New Hampshire-the state of lumberjacks, fishermen and university intellectuals-it will become clearer whether Haley or landing can challenge a serious challenge to Trump. According to polls, Haley in New Hampshire can even get ahead of Trump. And we will not forget that the Supreme Court can take it off the election. And then (here is a paradox!) Biden will be more difficult to remain president.